世界経済・社会統計 = World development indicators

We develop a new metric for the distribution of educational achievement across countries that can further track the cognitive skill distribution within countries and over time. Cross-country growth regressions generate a close relationship between educational achievement and GDP growth that is remarkably stable across extensive sensitivity analyses of specification, time period, and country samples. In a series of now-common microecono- metric approaches for addressing causality, we narrow the range of plausible interpretations of this strong cognitive skills-growth relationship. These alternative estimation approaches, including instrumental variables, difference-in-differences among immigrants on the U.S. labor market, and longitudinal analysis of changes in cognitive skills and in growth rates, leave the stylized fact of a strong impact of cognitive skills unchanged. Moreover, the results indicatethatschoolpolicycanbeanimportantinstrumenttospurgrowth.Thesharesofbasic

/pdf/do-better-schools-lead-to-more-growth-cognitive-skills-w84ginisix.pdf

Do Better Schools Lead to More Growth? Cognitive Skills, Economic Outcomes, and Causation

Acknowledgments vii Preface xiii Chapter 1. Educational Attainment: Overall Trends, Disparities, and the Public Universities We Study 1 Chapter 2. Bachelor's Degree Attainment on a National Level 20 Chapter 3. Finishing College at Public Universities 32 Chapter 4. Fields of Study, Time-to-Degree, and College Grades 57 Chapter 5. High Schools and "Undermatching" 87 Chapter 6. Test Scores and High School Grades as Predictors 112 Chapter 7. Transfer Students and the Path from Two-Year to Four-Year Colleges 134 Chapter 8. Financial Aid and Pricing on a National Level 149 Chapter 9. Financial Aid at Public Universities 166 Chapter 10. Institutional Selectivity and Institutional Effects 192 Chapter 11. Target Populations 207 Chapter 12. Looking Ahead 223 Appendix A. The Modern Evolution of America's Flagship Universities by Eugene M. Tobin 239 Notes 265 List of Figures 337 List of Tables 347 List of Appendix Tables 349 References 357 Index 377

Crossing the Finish Line:: Completing College at America’s Public Universities (Association for Institutional Research, May 30, 2010)

This paper examines the possibility of nonlinear effects of inflation on economic growth. It finds evidence of a significant structural break in the function that relates economic growth to inflation. The break is estimated to occur when the inflation rate is 8 percent. Below that rate, inflation does not have any effect on growth, or it may even have a slightly positive effect. When the inflation rate is above 8 percent, however, the estimated effect of inflation on growth rates is significant, robust, and extremely powerful. The paper also demonstrates that when the existence of the structural break is ignored, the estimated effect of inflation on growth is biased by a factor of three.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm/WPIEA0561995.pdf?abstractid=883204&mirid=1&type=2

Nonlinear Effects of Inflation on Economic Growth

We study the relationship between exchange rate regimes and economic growth for a sample of 183 countries over the post-Bretton Woods period , using a new de facto classification of regimes based on the actual behavior of the relevant macroeconomic variables. In contrast with previous studies, we find that, for developing countries, less flexible exchange rate regimes are associated with slower growth, as well as with greater output volatility. For industrial countries, regimes do not appear to have any significant impact on growth. The results are robust to endogeneity corrections and a number of alternative specifications borrowed from the growth literature.

To Float or to Fix: Evidence on the Impact of Exchange Rate Regimes on Growth

This paper offers new evidence on the sources of cross-country income differences. It exploits the idea that observing immigrant workers from different countries in the same labor market provides an opportunity to estimate their human-capital endowments. These estimates suggest that human and physical capital account for only a fraction of cross-country income differences. For countries below 40% of the US output per worker, less than half of the output gap relative to the US is attributed to human and physical capital.

How Important Is Human Capital for Development? Evidence from Immigrant Earnings

Taxation and long-run growth

A number of recent papers have investigated the growth effects of tax reforms in the context of neoclassical growth models where growth is due to human capital accumulation. Stokey and Rebelo (1995) show that the predicted growth effects disagree to a striking extent and are highly sensitive to the choices of several parameters about which little evidence exists. The purpose of this paper is to argue that the question should be reconsidered in the context of a life-cycle framework instead of the infinite horizon model used previously. Since human capital is not heritable, the infinite horizon case can no longer be derived as a reduced form of an altruistically linked dynasty of finitely lived individuals. Moreover, modeling agents as infinitely lived hides a fundamental asymmetry between human and physical capital: Since human capital cannot be sold or decumulated, agents must primarily use physical capital holdings to smooth consumption over the life-cycle and in particular to finance retirement consumption. As a consequence, changes in factor taxation mostly affect the stock of physical but not that of human capital. Correspondingly, our simulation results show that changes in flat rate factor taxation have little impact on long-run growth. In marked contrast to the previous literature, this result is remarkably robust to changes in the calibration and even to variations in the way human capital accumulation and intergenerational transfers are modeled. This strongly suggests that the large growth effects of taxation found previously overstate the true effect, perhaps by an order of magnitude. Much smaller effects are consistent with the observed stability of the U.S. growth trend in spite of dramatic increases in income tax rates after World War II.

Taxation and Long-Run Growth

How important is discount rate heterogeneity for wealth inequality

We reconsider the role for human capital in accounting for cross-country income differences. Our contribution is to bring to bear new data on the pre- and post- migration labor market experiences of immigrants to the U.S. Immigrants from poor countries experience wage gains that are only 40 percent of the GDP per worker gap. This fact implies that â€œcountryâ€ accounts for only 40 percent of cross-country income differences, while human capital accounts for the other 60 percent. Our work deals with two well-known problems in the literature. It controls for selection by using data on the wages of the same individual in two different countries. We provide evidence on the importance of skill transfer by comparing pre- and post-migration occupations. Occupational downgrading at migration is common; corrections for this imply that human capital may account for as little as 50 percent of cross-country income differences.

https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/147988/1/872455505.pdf

Lutz Hendricks

Papers

How Important Is Human Capital for Development? Evidence from Immigrant Earnings

Taxation and long-run growth

Taxation and Long-Run Growth

How important is discount rate heterogeneity for wealth inequality

Human Capital and Development Accounting: New Evidence from Wage Gains at Migration