Boundary Layer Climates.

Black carbon aerosol plays a unique and important role in Earth's climate system. Black carbon is a type of carbonaceous material with a unique combination of physical properties. This assessment provides an evaluation of black-carbon climate forcing that is comprehensive in its inclusion of all known and relevant processes and that is quantitative in providing best estimates and uncertainties of the main forcing terms: direct solar absorption; influence on liquid, mixed phase, and ice clouds; and deposition on snow and ice. These effects are calculated with climate models, but when possible, they are evaluated with both microphysical measurements and field observations. Predominant sources are combustion related, namely, fossil fuels for transportation, solid fuels for industrial and residential uses, and open burning of biomass. Total global emissions of black carbon using bottom-up inventory methods are 7500 Gg yr−1 in the year 2000 with an uncertainty range of 2000 to 29000. However, global atmospheric absorption attributable to black carbon is too low in many models and should be increased by a factor of almost 3. After this scaling, the best estimate for the industrial-era (1750 to 2005) direct radiative forcing of atmospheric black carbon is +0.71 W m−2 with 90% uncertainty bounds of (+0.08, +1.27) W m−2. Total direct forcing by all black carbon sources, without subtracting the preindustrial background, is estimated as +0.88 (+0.17, +1.48) W m−2. Direct radiative forcing alone does not capture important rapid adjustment mechanisms. A framework is described and used for quantifying climate forcings, including rapid adjustments. The best estimate of industrial-era climate forcing of black carbon through all forcing mechanisms, including clouds and cryosphere forcing, is +1.1 W m−2 with 90% uncertainty bounds of +0.17 to +2.1 W m−2. Thus, there is a very high probability that black carbon emissions, independent of co-emitted species, have a positive forcing and warm the climate. We estimate that black carbon, with a total climate forcing of +1.1 W m−2, is the second most important human emission in terms of its climate forcing in the present-day atmosphere; only carbon dioxide is estimated to have a greater forcing. Sources that emit black carbon also emit other short-lived species that may either cool or warm climate. Climate forcings from co-emitted species are estimated and used in the framework described herein. When the principal effects of short-lived co-emissions, including cooling agents such as sulfur dioxide, are included in net forcing, energy-related sources (fossil fuel and biofuel) have an industrial-era climate forcing of +0.22 (−0.50 to +1.08) W m−2 during the first year after emission. For a few of these sources, such as diesel engines and possibly residential biofuels, warming is strong enough that eliminating all short-lived emissions from these sources would reduce net climate forcing (i.e., produce cooling). When open burning emissions, which emit high levels of organic matter, are included in the total, the best estimate of net industrial-era climate forcing by all short-lived species from black-carbon-rich sources becomes slightly negative (−0.06 W m−2 with 90% uncertainty bounds of −1.45 to +1.29 W m−2). The uncertainties in net climate forcing from black-carbon-rich sources are substantial, largely due to lack of knowledge about cloud interactions with both black carbon and co-emitted organic carbon. In prioritizing potential black-carbon mitigation actions, non-science factors, such as technical feasibility, costs, policy design, and implementation feasibility play important roles. The major sources of black carbon are presently in different stages with regard to the feasibility for near-term mitigation. This assessment, by evaluating the large number and complexity of the associated physical and radiative processes in black-carbon climate forcing, sets a baseline from which to improve future climate forcing estimates.

/pdf/bounding-the-role-of-black-carbon-in-the-climate-system-a-1fc3novd9r.pdf

Bounding the role of black carbon in the climate system: A scientific assessment

Investigating soil moisture-climate interactions in a changing climate: A review

It is now well established that forested catchments have higher evapotranspiration than grassed catchments. Thus land use management and rehabilitation strategies will have an impact on catchment water balance and hence water yield and groundwater recharge. The key controls on evapotranspiration are rainfall interception, net radiation, advection, turbulent transport, leaf area, and plant-available water capacity. The relative importance of these factors depends on climate, soil, and vegetation conditions. Results from over 250 catchments worldwide show that for a given forest cover, there is a good relationship between long-term average evapotranspiration and rainfall. From these observations and on the basis of previous theoretical work a simple two-parameter model was developed that relates mean annual evapotranspiration to rainfall, potential evapotranspiration, and plant-available water capacity. The mean absolute error between modeled and measured evapotranspiration was 42 mm or 6.0%; the least squares line through the origin had as lope of 1.00 and a correlation coefficient of 0.96. The model showed potential for a variety of applications including water yield modeling and recharge estimation. The model is a practical tool that can be readily used for assessing the long-term average effect of vegetation changes on catchment evapotranspiration and is scientifically justifiable.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2000WR900325

Response of mean annual evapotranspiration to vegetation changes at catchment scale

:Motivated by the rapid increase in atmospheric CO2 due to human activities since the Industrial Revolution, several international scientific research programs have analyzed the role of individual components of the Earth system in the global carbon cycle. Our knowledge of the carbon cycle within the oceans, terrestrial ecosystems, and the atmosphere is sufficiently extensive to permit us to conclude that although natural processes can potentially slow the rate of increase in atmospheric CO 2, there is no natural “savior” waiting to assimilate all the anthropogenically produced CO 2 in the coming century. Our knowledge is insufficient to describe the interactions between the components of the Earth system and the relationship between the carbon cycle and other biogeochemical and climatological processes. Overcoming this limitation requires a systems approach.

https://ebme.marine.rutgers.edu/HistoryEarthSystems/HistEarthSystems_Fall2008/Week11b/Falkowski_et_al_Science_2000.pdf

The Global Carbon Cycle: A Test of Our Knowledge of Earth as a System

It follows from the analysis of observation data that the secular variation of the mean temperature of the Earth can be explained by the variation of short-wave radiation, arriving at the surface of the Earth. In connection with this, the influence of long-term changes of radiation, caused by variations of atmospheric transparency on the thermal regime is being studied. Taking into account the influence of changes of planetary albedo of the Earth under the development of glaciations on the thermal regime, it is found that comparatively small variations of atmospheric transparency could be sufficient for the development of quaternary glaciations. DOI: 10.1111/j.2153-3490.1969.tb00466.x

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/j.2153-3490.1969.tb00466.x

The effect of solar radiation variations on the climate of the Earth

The article discusses the present state of knowledge of the basic components of the heat balance of the earth's surface (radiation balance, loss of heat to evaporation, turbulent heat exchange) and the distribution of these components in time and space. Soviet research is concerned with applying heat-balance data to the study of physical-geographical processes (hydrologic regime, plant and soil cover), to the study of integrated geographic problems (geographic zonality) and practical problems (weather and hydrologic forecasting, the use of solar energy for productive purposes, and the use of heat-balance data for planning reclamation projects and other nature-transforming measures.)

The heat balance of the earth's surface

The Earth's climate, past and future

Results of improved calculations of the heat balance components of Earth's surface are reported for yearly average conditions The technique used to determine the heat-balance components from land- and sea-based actinometric observations as well as from satellite data on the radiation balance of the Earth-atmosphere system is described, with special attention given to short-wavelength solar radiation on the continents, effective radiation from the land surface, the radiation balance of the ocean surface, heat expended by both evaporation from the ocean surface, and turbulent heat transfer between the ocean surface and the atmosphere World maps of heat-balance components show yearly average values of total radiation, radiation balance, heat expended by evaporation, the turbulent heat flow between Earth's surface and atmosphere, and heat transfer between the ocean surface and underlying waters The global surface heat balance is estimated along with global values of the various components and the heat-balance components for different latitude zones

/pdf/heat-balance-of-the-earth-1b3bpj00ck.pdf

Heat balance of the Earth

Results of improved calculations of the heat balance components of Earth's surface are reported for yearly average conditions. The technique used to determine the heat-balance components from land- and sea-based actinometric observations as well as from satellite data on the radiation balance of the Earth-atmosphere system is described, with special attention given to short-wavelength solar radiation on the continents, effective radiation from the land surface, the radiation balance of the ocean surface, heat expended by both evaporation from the ocean surface, and turbulent heat transfer between the ocean surface and the atmosphere. World maps of heat-balance components show yearly average values of total radiation, radiation balance, heat expended by evaporation, the turbulent heat flow between Earth's surface and atmosphere, and heat transfer between the ocean surface and underlying waters. The global surface heat balance is estimated along with global values of the various components and the heat-balance components for different latitude zones.

M. I. Budyko

Papers

The effect of solar radiation variations on the climate of the Earth

The heat balance of the earth's surface

The Earth's climate, past and future

Heat balance of the Earth

The heat balance of the earth