Dengue is a systemic viral infection transmitted between humans by Aedes mosquitoes. For some patients, dengue is a life-threatening illness. There are currently no licensed vaccines or specific therapeutics, and substantial vector control efforts have not stopped its rapid emergence and global spread. The contemporary worldwide distribution of the risk of dengue virus infection and its public health burden are poorly known. Here we undertake an exhaustive assembly of known records of dengue occurrence worldwide, and use a formal modelling framework to map the global distribution of dengue risk. We then pair the resulting risk map with detailed longitudinal information from dengue cohort studies and population surfaces to infer the public health burden of dengue in 2010. We predict dengue to be ubiquitous throughout the tropics, with local spatial variations in risk influenced strongly by rainfall, temperature and the degree of urbanization. Using cartographic approaches, we estimate there to be 390 million (95% credible interval 284-528) dengue infections per year, of which 96 million (67-136) manifest apparently (any level of disease severity). This infection total is more than three times the dengue burden estimate of the World Health Organization. Stratification of our estimates by country allows comparison with national dengue reporting, after taking into account the probability of an apparent infection being formally reported. The most notable differences are discussed. These new risk maps and infection estimates provide novel insights into the global, regional and national public health burden imposed by dengue. We anticipate that they will provide a starting point for a wider discussion about the global impact of this disease and will help to guide improvements in disease control strategies using vaccine, drug and vector control methods, and in their economic evaluation.

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The global distribution and burden of dengue

Transmission intensity affects almost all aspects of malaria epidemiology and the impact of malaria on human populations. Maps of transmission intensity are necessary to identify populations at different levels of risk and to evaluate objectively options for disease control. To remain relevant operationally, such maps must be updated frequently. Following the first global effort to map Plasmodium falciparum malaria endemicity in 2007, this paper describes the generation of a new world map for the year 2010. This analysis is extended to provide the first global estimates of two other metrics of transmission intensity for P. falciparum that underpin contemporary questions in malaria control: the entomological inoculation rate (Pf EIR) and the basic reproductive number (PfR). Annual parasite incidence data for 13,449 administrative units in 43 endemic countries were sourced to define the spatial limits of P. falciparum transmission in 2010 and 22,212 P. falciparum parasite rate (Pf PR) surveys were used in a model-based geostatistical (MBG) prediction to create a continuous contemporary surface of malaria endemicity within these limits. A suite of transmission models were developed that link Pf PR to Pf EIR and PfR and these were fitted to field data. These models were combined with the Pf PR map to create new global predictions of Pf EIR and PfR. All output maps included measured uncertainty. An estimated 1.13 and 1.44 billion people worldwide were at risk of unstable and stable P. falciparum malaria, respectively. The majority of the endemic world was predicted with a median Pf EIR of less than one and a median PfRc of less than two. Values of either metric exceeding 10 were almost exclusive to Africa. The uncertainty described in both Pf EIR and PfR was substantial in regions of intense transmission. The year 2010 has a particular significance as an evaluation milestone for malaria global health policy. The maps presented here contribute to a rational basis for control and elimination decisions and can serve as a baseline assessment as the global health community looks ahead to the next series of milestones targeted at 2015.

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A world malaria map: Plasmodium falciparum endemicity in 2007

Culicoides biting midges are among the most abundant of haematophagous insects, and occur throughout most of the inhabited world. Across this broad range they transmit a great number of assorted pathogens of human, and domestic and wild animals, but it is as vectors of arboviruses, and particularly arboviruses of domestic livestock, that they achieve their prime importance. To date, more than 50 such viruses have been isolated from Culicoides spp. and some of these cause diseases of such international significance that they have been allocated Office International des Epizooties (OIE) List A status. Culicoides are world players in the epidemiology of many important arboviral diseases. In this context this paper deals with those aspects of midge biology facilitating disease transmission, describes the factors controlling insect-virus interactions at the individual insect and population level, and illustrates the far-reaching effects that certain components of climate have upon the midges and, hence, transmission potential.

Culicoides biting midges: their role as arbovirus vectors.

The frequent warnings that global climate change will allow falciparum malaria to spread into northern latitudes, including Europe and large parts of the United States, are based on biological transmission models driven principally by temperature. These models were assessed for their value in predicting present, and therefore future, malaria distribution. In an alternative statistical approach, the recorded present-day global distribution of falciparum malaria was used to establish the current multivariate climatic constraints. These results were applied to future climate scenarios to predict future distributions, which showed remarkably few changes, even under the most extreme scenarios.

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/289/5485/1763.full.pdf

The global spread of malaria in a future, warmer world.

Livestock contributes directly to the livelihoods and food security of almost a billion people and affects the diet and health of many more. With estimated standing populations of 1.43 billion cattle, 1.87 billion sheep and goats, 0.98 billion pigs, and 19.60 billion chickens, reliable and accessible information on the distribution and abundance of livestock is needed for a many reasons. These include analyses of the social and economic aspects of the livestock sector; the environmental impacts of livestock such as the production and management of waste, greenhouse gas emissions and livestock-related land-use change; and large-scale public health and epidemiological investigations. The Gridded Livestock of the World (GLW) database, produced in 2007, provided modelled livestock densities of the world, adjusted to match official (FAOSTAT) national estimates for the reference year 2005, at a spatial resolution of 3 minutes of arc (about 5×5 km at the equator). Recent methodological improvements have significantly enhanced these distributions: more up-to date and detailed sub-national livestock statistics have been collected; a new, higher resolution set of predictor variables is used; and the analytical procedure has been revised and extended to include a more systematic assessment of model accuracy and the representation of uncertainties associated with the predictions. This paper describes the current approach in detail and presents new global distribution maps at 1 km resolution for cattle, pigs and chickens, and a partial distribution map for ducks. These digital layers are made publically available via the Livestock Geo-Wiki (http://www.livestock.geo-wiki.org), as will be the maps of other livestock types as they are produced.

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Mapping the global distribution of livestock.

An example is given of the application of remotely-sensed, satellite data to the problems of predicting the distribution and abundance of tsetse flies in West Africa. The distributions of eight species of tsetse, Glossina morsitans, G. longipalpis, G. palpalis, G. tachinoides, G. pallicera, G. fusca, G. nigrofusca and G. medicorum in Cote d'Ivoire and Burkina Faso, were analysed using discriminant analysis applied to temporal Fourier-processed surrogates for vegetation, temperature and rainfall derived from meteorological satellites. The vegetation and temperature surrogates were the normalized difference vegetation index and channel-4-brightness temperature, respectively, from the advanced, very-high-resolution radiometers on board the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's polar-orbiting, meteorological satellites. For rainfall the surrogate was the Cold-Cloud-Duration (CCD) index derived from the geostationary, Meteosat satellite series. The presence or absence of tsetse was predicted with a...

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Predicting the distribution of tsetse flies in West Africa using temporal Fourier processed meteorological satellite data

This paper gives an overview of how certain meteorological data used in studies of the population dynamics of arthropod vectors of disease may be predicted using remotely sensed, satellite data. Details are given of the stages of processing necessary to convert digital data arising from satellite sensors into ecologically meaningful information. Potential sources of error in these processing steps are also highlighted. Relationships between ground-measured meteorological variables (saturation deficit, ground temperature and rainfall) and data from both the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's, polar-orbiting, meteorological satellites and the geostationary, Meteosat satellite are defined and examples detailed for Africa. Finally, the current status of existing satellite platforms and future satellite missions are reviewed and potential data availability discussed. How such satellite-based predictions have proved valuable in understanding the distribution of tsetse fly species in Cote d'Ivoire and Burkina Faso will be the subject of a future review.

Remotely sensed surrogates of meteorological data for the study of the distribution and abundance of arthropod vectors of disease

This paper reviews the application of remote sensing to the study and control of invertebrate intermediate hosts and vectors for some of the most prevalent of human diseases worldwide. Examples are also taken from studies involving animal diseases that have considerable adverse effects on human welfare. The current status of remote sensing in epidemiology is assessed and suggestions are made on how, in the future, the two fields might be most profitably combined.

M J Packer

Papers

Predicting the distribution of tsetse flies in West Africa using temporal Fourier processed meteorological satellite data

Remotely sensed surrogates of meteorological data for the study of the distribution and abundance of arthropod vectors of disease

The impact of remote sensing on the study and control of invertebrate intermediate hosts and vectors for disease