计量经济分析 = Econometric analysis

Investor Psychology and Security Market Under- and Overreactions

This paper solves explicitly a simple equilibrium model with liquidity risk. In our liquidityadjusted capital asset pricing model, a security s required return depends on its expected liquidity as well as on the covariances of its own return and liquidity with the market return and liquidity. In addition, a persistent negative shock to a security s liquidity results in low contemporaneous returns and high predicted future returns. The model provides a unified framework for understanding the various channels through which liquidity risk may affect asset prices. Our empirical results shed light on the total and relative economic significance of these channels and provide evidence of flight to liquidity. r 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Market Liquidity: Asset Pricing with Liquidity Risk

The purpose of Plott and Zeiler (2005)—henceforth, PZ—was to investigate whether previously published experiments using consumption goods such as mugs and candy bars to measure gaps between willingness to pay (WTP) and willingnessto-accept (WTA) support endowment effect theory (EET). Our results demonstrate that the gap for commodities can be turned on and off by implementing procedures designed to control for subject misconceptions about the value elicitation procedures. Following experiments traditionally used to demonstrate the endowment effect, we used mug valuations to test EET. We used lottery rounds only to provide our subjects with paid practice using the value elicitation device prior to employing that device to elicit subjects’ mug valuations. In a footnote, we report evidence of contamination in the lottery data that rendered it inappropriate for our purposes (PZ 2005, fn. 15). Our footnote summarized the details of misconceptions reported in a data supplement provided to all who request our lottery data. The supplement was not referenced in our paper, so we make it available as an online Appendix to our Reply. 1 Andrea Isoni, Graham Loomes, and Robert Sugden (2011)—henceforth, ILS—use experimental procedures similar to ours and observe, just as we did, no gap in mug valuations. ILS claim that our 2005 paper is misleading and has misled researchers. They are concerned that our paper produces, and has been interpreted as producing, a set of procedures sufficient to remove all gaps, including gaps in lotteries. To justify their concern they focus on the wording of our abstract and overlook the context of paragraphs from which they quote sentences to support their thesis. The result is what we consider to be a misleading picture of the content of our paper and the facts that we report, namely that mug gaps disappear after we implement controls for misconceptions and that none of our data provides support for EET. We want to emphasize that our focus was on EET and not on more general theories of prefer ence formation, reference effects and decision processes that have emerged in the literature more recently and might explain our results. 2 In Section I, we demonstrate

The Willingness to Pay-Willingness to Accept Gap, the "Endowment Effect," Subject Misconceptions, and Experimental Procedures for Eliciting Valuations

International Momentum Strategies

We show that global asset reallocations of U.S. fund investors obey a strong factor structure, with two factors accounting for more than 90% of the overall variation. The first factor captures switches between U.S. bonds and equities. The second reflects reallocations from U.S. to international assets. Portfolio allocations respond to U.S. monetary policy, most prominently around FOMC events when institutional investors reallocate from basically all other asset classes to U.S. equities. Reallocations of both retail and institutional investors show return-chasing behavior. Institutional investors tend to reallocate toward riskier, high-yield fixed income segments, consistent with a search for yield.

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Global Asset Allocation Shifts

Existing empirical evidence is inconclusive on whether professional investors show sophisticated behavior or not, a question which is at the heart of market efficiency. This ambiguous evidence is mostly based on trading data or laboratory evidence, which each has its limitations. We complement these approaches by conducting a survey of 500 investors, including several measures of sophistication, three relevant groups of investors and essential control variables. We find that both professional investors and laymen do indeed show unsophisticated investment behavior on aggregate. Furthermore, while some professional investors - institutional investors - behave at least more sophisticated than laymen, other professionals - investment advisors - seem to do even worse.

Are all professional investors sophisticated

We identify a component of monetary policy news that is extracted from high-frequency changes in risky asset prices. These surprises, which we call "risk shifts", are uncorrelated, and therefore complementary, to risk-free rate surprises. We show that (i) risk shifts capture the lion's share of stock price movements around FOMC announcements; (ii) that they are accompanied by significant investor fund flows, suggesting that investors react heterogeneously to monetary policy news; and (iii) that price pressure amplifies the stock market response to monetary policy news. Our results imply that central bank information effects are overshadowed by short-term dynamics stemming from investor rebalancing activities and are likely to be more difficult to identify than previously thought.

The FOMC Risk Shift

We show that dividend growth predictability by the dividend yield is the rule rather than the exception in global equity markets. Dividend predictability is weaker, however, in large and developed markets where dividends are smoothed more, the typical firm is large, and volatility is lower. Our findings suggest that the apparent lack of dividend predictability in the U.S. does not uniformly extend to other countries. Rather, cross-country patterns in dividend predictability are driven by differences in firm characteristics and the extent to which dividends are smoothed.

/pdf/dividend-predictability-around-the-world-141gqpguhr.pdf

Dividend Predictability around the World

We document a striking pattern in U.S. and international stock returns: double sorting on the previous month’s return and share turnover reveals significant short-term reversal among low-turnover stocks, whereas high-turnover stocks exhibit short-term momentum. Short-term momentum is as profitable and as persistent as conventional price momentum. It survives transaction costs and is strongest among the largest, most liquid, and most extensively covered stocks. Our results are difficult to reconcile with models imposing strict rationality but are suggestive of an explanation based on some traders underappreciating the information conveyed by prices.

http://academic.oup.com/rfs/advance-article-pdf/doi/10.1093/rfs/hhab055/38614478/hhab055.pdf

Maik Schmeling

Papers

Global Asset Allocation Shifts

Are all professional investors sophisticated

The FOMC Risk Shift

Dividend Predictability around the World

Short-term Momentum