It is widely recognized that information technology was critical to the dramatic acceleration of U.S. labor productivity growth in the mid 1990s. This paper traces the evolution of productivity estimates to document how and when this perception emerged. Early studies concluded that information technology was relatively unimportant. Only after the massive information technology investment boom of the late 1990s did this investment and underlying productivity increases in the information technology-producing sectors come to be identified as important sources of growth. Although information technology has diminished in significance since the dot-com crash of 2000 and observed growth rates have slowed recently, we project that private sector productivity growth will average around 2.4 percent per year for the next decade, only moderately below the average of the post-1995 period.

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A Retrospective Look at the U.S. Productivity Growth Resurgence

Traditional approaches to structural vector autoregressions (VARs) can be viewed as special cases of Bayesian inference arising from very strong prior beliefs. These methods can be generalized with a less restrictive formulation that incorporates uncertainty about the identifying assumptions themselves. We use this approach to revisit the importance of shocks to oil supply and demand. Supply disruptions turn out to be a bigger factor in historical oil price movements and inventory accumulation a smaller factor than implied by earlier estimates. Supply shocks lead to a reduction in global economic activity after a significant lag, whereas shocks to oil demand do not.

/pdf/structural-interpretation-of-vector-autoregressions-with-26vom54424.pdf

Structural Interpretation of Vector Autoregressions with Incomplete Identification: Revisiting the Role of Oil Supply and Demand Shocks

The development and production of fossil fuel alternatives have become one of the main focal points in recent investigations. Lignocellulosic biomass is a renewable source of fermentable sugars for second-generation biofuels and chemicals via biotechnological pathways. However, the presence of lignin and hemicellulose in lignocellulosic biomass makes it difficult for the biomass to be hydrolyzed or digested during fermentation. Thus, effective biomass pretreatment is vital. The present review shows that chemical pretreatment is the current preferred method to obtain high sugar yields at low cost, with dilute acid and alkaline hydrolysis as the two most reported technologies. Dilute acid favours hydrolysis of the hemicelluloses whereas alkaline hydrolysis targets the lignin fraction. Both methods have merits and demerits, and have been combined with other treatments such as hydrothermal and enzymatic hydrolysis. Further investigation is required to improve the pretreatment processes and to ensure the economic viability of bioconversion.

Typical conversion of lignocellulosic biomass into reducing sugars using dilute acid hydrolysis and alkaline pretreatment

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Thirty Years of Current Account Imbalances, Current Account Reversals, and Sudden Stops

In this article we present new estimates of the effect of household financial and real wealth on consumption. The analysis refers to 11 Organization for Economic Co-operation and Developoment (OECD) countries and takes into account quarterly data from 1997 to 2008. Unlike most of the previous literature on European countries, we measure financial wealth using quarterly harmonized data on household financial assets and liabilities, which have been gathered from the flow of funds. For comparison, we also employ as a proxy for financial wealth national share price indices. We rely on standard static panel and single-country level autoregressive distributed lag estimations. Furthermore, we implement a recent econometric approach that allows for more flexible assumptions in the nonstationary panel framework under consideration. Our results show that both net financial wealth and real wealth have a positive effect on consumption. Overall, the influence of net financial assets is stronger than that of real assets.

/pdf/the-effects-of-financial-and-real-wealth-on-consumption-new-22fitywpwh.pdf

The effects of financial and real wealth on consumption: new evidence from OECD countries

This note combines and distills existing and new research to inform discussion on the topical policy issue of oil prices. Following four years of relative stability at around $105 per barrel (bbl), oil prices have declined sharply since June 2014 and are expected to remain low for a considerable period of time. The drop in prices likely marks the end of the commodity supercycle that began in the early 2000s. Since the past episodes of such sharp declines coincided with substantial fluctuations in activity and inflation, the causes and consequences of and policy responses to the recent plunge in oil prices have led to intensive debates. This paper addresses four questions at the center of these debates, with particular emphasis on emerging market and developing economies: 1) How does the recent decline in oil prices compare with previous episodes? 2) What are the causes of the sharp drop and what is the outlook for oil price? 3) What are the economic and financial consequences? 4) What are the main policy implications? The decline in oil prices will lead to significant real income shifts from oil exporters to oil importers, likely resulting in a net positive effect for global activity over the medium term. However, several factors could counteract the global growth and inflation implications of the lower oil prices. These include weak global demand and limited scope for additional monetary policy easing in many countries. The disinflationary implications of falling oil prices may be muted by sharp adjustments in currencies and effects of taxes, subsidies, and regulations on prices. Regarding fiscal policy, the loss in oil revenues for exporters will strain public finances, while savings among oil importers could help rebuild fiscal space. Lower oil prices also present a window of opportunity to implement structural reforms. These include, in particular, comprehensive and lasting reforms of fuel subsidies, as well as energy taxes more broadly.

/pdf/the-great-plunge-in-oil-prices-causes-consequences-and-55nm9ay9xw.pdf

The great plunge in oil prices : causes, consequences, and policy responses

Do asset prices affect real activity? This question has taken on a new importance in recent years, as asset values first surged at the end of 1990s and, thereafter, dramatically retreated. This report reviews the available theoretical and empirical evidence regarding asset price and wealth effects in Europe and some other major economies. The main focus of this report is on consumption effects via the wealth channel, reflecting the bulk of literature on the effects of asset prices. However, asset price effects on investment via the Tobin’s-Q channel, balance sheet and confidence channels are also reviewed. The available evidence supports the view that the wealth channel is the most important of various channels. There is little empirical evidence indicating that the Tobin’s-Q, balance-sheet and confidence channels play any major independent role in the transmission of asset price effects to economic activity.

Wealth and asset price effects on economic activity

This paper examines gross financial inflows to developing countries between 2000 and 2013, with a particular focus on the potential effects of quantitative easing policies in the United States and other high-income countries. The paper finds evidence for potential transmission of quantitative easing along observable liquidity, portfolio balancing, and confidence channels. Moreover, quantitative easing had an additional effect over and above these observable channels, which the paper argues cannot be attributed to either market expectations or changes in the structural relationships between inflows and observable fundamentals. The baseline estimates place the lower bound of the effect of quantitative easing at around 5 percent of gross inflows (for the average developing economy), which suggests that of the 62 percent increase in inflows during 2009-13 related to changing global monetary conditions, at least 13 percent of this was attributable to quantitative easing. The paper also finds evidence of heterogeneity among different types of flows; portfolio (especially bond) flows tend to be more sensitive than foreign direct investment to our measured effects from quantitative easing. Finally, the paper performs simulations that explore the potential effects of the withdrawal of quantitative easing on financial flows to developing countries.

Tinker, taper, QE, bye ? the effect of quantitative easing on financial flows to developing countries

This paper provides a description and a discussion of some important aspects relating to recent productivity developments in the euro area. Following decades of stronger gains in the euro area than in the US, labour productivity growth has fallen behind that in the US in recent years. This reflects a decline in average labour productivity growth observed in the euro area since the mid-1990s, which stands in sharp contrast with opposite developments in the US. The decline in labour productivity growth experienced in the euro area since the mid-1990s resulted from both lower capital deepening and lower total factor productivity growth. From a sectoral perspective, industries not producing or using intensively information and communication technology (ICT) would appear mostly responsible for the decline in average labour productivity growth since the mid-1990s. These developments were broadly experienced by most euro area countries. A comparison with developments in the US suggests that the euro area economy seems to have benefited much less from increased production and use of ICT technologies, in particular in the services sector. Diverging trends in labour productivity growth between the euro area and the US in recent years mainly reflect developments in a number of specific ICT-using services such as retail, wholesale and some financial services where strong gains were registered in the US. The evidence presented in this paper suggests that, in order to support economic growth in the euro area, emphasis should be given to both policy measures that directly address the determinants of productivity and, given the interactions among the various factors of growth, to policies that raise labour utilisation.

https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/154506/1/ecbop053.pdf

Marc Stocker

Papers

The great plunge in oil prices : causes, consequences, and policy responses

Wealth and asset price effects on economic activity

Tinker, taper, QE, bye ? the effect of quantitative easing on financial flows to developing countries

Labour productivity developments in the euro area

Tinker, taper, QE, bye ? the effect of quantitative easing on financial flows to developing countries