Recently developed structural models of the global crude oil market imply that the surge in the real price of oil between mid-2003 and mid-2008 was driven by repeated positive shocks to the demand for all industrial commodities, reflecting unexpectedly high growth mainly in emerging Asia. This note evaluates this proposition using an alternative data source and a different econometric methodology. Rather than inferring demand shocks from an econometric model, we utilize a direct measure of global demand shocks based on revisions of professional real GDP growth forecasts. We show that recent forecast surprises were associated primarily with unexpected growth in emerging economies (and to a lesser extent in Japan), that markets were repeatedly surprised by the strength of this growth, that these surprises were associated with a hump-shaped response of the real price of oil that reaches its peak after 12 to 16 months, and that news about global growth predict much of the surge in the real price of oil from mid-2003 until mid-2008 and much of its subsequent decline.

Did Unexpectedly Strong Economic Growth Cause the Oil Price Shock of 2003-2008?; Parenting Styles and Financial Security: How are children impacted?

Dynamic co-movement between oil and stock markets in oil-importing and oil-exporting countries: Two types of wavelet analysis

This paper studies the effects of fiscal policy on GDP, prices and interest rates in 5 OECD countries, using a structural Vector Autoregression approach. Its mains results can be summarized as follows; 1) The effects of fiscal policy on GDP and its components have become substantially weaker in the last 20 years; 2) The tax multipliers tend to be negative but small; 3) Once plausible values of the price elasticity of governments spending are imposed, the negative effects of government spending on prices that have been frequently estimated become positive, although usually small and not always significant; 4) Government spending shocks have significant effects on the real short interest rate, but uncertain signs; 5) Net tax shocks have very small effects on prices; 6) The US is an outlier in many dimensions; US responses to fiscal shocks are often not representative of the average OECD country included in this sample.

Estimating the effects of fiscal policy in OECD countries - comments

Period specific volatility spillover based connectedness between oil and other commodity prices and their portfolio implications

We examine the economic consequences of oil shocks across a set of industrialised economies over time. First, we show that knowing the underlying reason for a change in oil prices is crucial to determine the economic repercussions and the appropriate monetary policy reaction. For oil demand shocks driven by global economic activity, all economies experience a temporary increase in real GDP following an oil price increase, while for oil-specific demand shocks all economies experience a temporary decline in real GDP. The effects of exogenous oil supply shocks are, however, very different across countries when oil prices increase. Whereas net oiland energyimporting economies all face a permanent fall in economic activity following an adverse supply shock, the impact is insignificant or even positive for net energy exporters. Second, the pass-through to inflation turns out to differ considerably across oil-importing economies and strongly depends on the existence of second-round effects via increasing wages. Third, we investigate how the dynamic effects have changed over time. We document a much less elastic oil demand curve since the mid 1980s, which seriously distorts intertemporal comparisons. However, we demonstrate that economies which improved their net energy position the most over time became relatively less vulnerable to oil shocks compared to other economies.

The Economic Consequences of Oil Shocks: Differences across Countries and Time | Conference – 2009

http://ceerp.hw.ac.uk/RePEc/hwc/wpaper/002.pdf

Causes and consequences of oil price shocks on the UK economy

https://eprints.ncl.ac.uk/file_store/production/264325/A9B05C51-9FBD-4296-A722-DAA453878EF8.pdf

Oil prices, fundamentals and expectations

https://www2.uwe.ac.uk/faculties/BBS/BUS/Research/economics%202008/0804%20Can%20We%20Declare%20Military%20Keynesianism%20Dead.pdf

Can We Declare Military Keynesianism Dead

/pdf/spillovers-among-energy-commodities-and-the-russian-stock-98c8faqc.pdf

Spillovers among energy commodities and the Russian stock market

Correspondence Ignazio Cabras, Department of Accounting and Financial Management, Newcastle Business School, Northumbria University, Newcastle upon Tyne NE1 8SE, UK. Email: ignazio.cabras@northumbria.ac.uk Abstract This paper investigates the economic contribution of beer festivals on local economies by analysing the Knavesmire Beer Festival at York, United Kingdom. Using information collected via means of a survey questionnaire and applying Type I multipliers, we estimate the total expenditure generated by visitors within and outside festivals' premises, measuring its impact on the local economy in terms of jobs created and GVA contributions. Findings reveal the impact of the festival on the York economy and the wider brewing industry, providing empirical evidence and original results about the economic contribution that beer festivals can generate at a local level.

/pdf/measuring-the-economic-contribution-of-beer-festivals-on-1dijerhs5m.pdf

Marco Lorusso

Papers

Causes and consequences of oil price shocks on the UK economy

Oil prices, fundamentals and expectations

Can We Declare Military Keynesianism Dead

Spillovers among energy commodities and the Russian stock market

Measuring the economic contribution of beer festivals on local economies: The case of York, United Kingdom