Showing papers by "Mardi Dungey published in 2008"

Unobservable Shocks as Carriers of Contagion: A Dynamic Analysis Using Identified Structural GARCH

Abstract: Markets in financial crisis may experience heightened sensitivity to news from abroad and they may also spread turbulence into foreign markets, creating contagion. We use a structural GARCH model to separate and measure these two parts of crisis transmission. Unobservable structural shocks are named and linked to source markets using variance decompositions, allowing clearer interpretation of impulse response functions. Applying this method to data from the Asian crisis, we find signifcant contagion from Hong Kong to nearby markets but little heightened sensitivity. Impulse response functions for an equally-weighted equity portfolio show the increasing dominance of Korean and Hong Kong shocks during the crisis, whereas Indonesia\'s infuence shrinks.

The US treasury market in August 1998: untangling the effects of Hong Kong and Russia with high-frequency data

Abstract: The second half of August 1998 was dominated by two events. From 14 to 28 August, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) intervened in Hong Kong equity markets to prevent a speculative double play against their currency board. On 17 August, Russia announced its default on sovereign bonds. This paper demonstrates that the HKMA interventions had a substantial impact on the outcomes for US Treasury markets during this period using a careful analysis of high-frequency bond market data. On this evidence the shocks emanating from Hong Kong provided liquidity to the US Treasury market when it was most needed.

Monetary Policy in Illiquid Markets: Options for a Small Open Economy

Abstract: Two impediments to effective monetary policy operation include illiquidity in bond markets and the zero bound of interest rates. Under these conditions alternative means of enacting monetary policy may be required. This paper empirically explores policy options implemented through equity and currency markets that will generate similar inflation responses at different time horizons. In terms of GDP loss the least costly means of achieving a particular long run inflation outcome is via the current monetary policy arrangements. Currency market alternatives are volatile but less expensive than the equity market in terms of output loss for short term inflation horizons.

Extending an SVAR Model of the Australian Economy

Abstract: Dungey and Pagan (2000) present an SVAR model of the Australian economy which models macro-economic outcomes as transitory deviations from a deterministic trend. In this paper we extend that model in two directions. Firstly, we relate it to an emerging literature on DSGE modelling of small open economies. Secondly, we allow for both transitory and permanent components in the series and show how this modification has an impact upon the design of macroeconomic models.

Public information, price volatility, and trading volume in U.S. bond markets

Abstract: Prices in bond markets have been noted as moving extremely rapidly following macroeconomic news announcements - with a delayed increase in trading volume. New data allows us to demonstrate that the previously unexplained dichotomy between rapid price and sluggish volume movement in the US Treasuries cash market originates with rapid price and volume change in the Treasury futures market. Consistent with research in other markets, the Treasury futures lead price discovery in the cash market.

The Structure and Resilience of the Financial System ‐ edited by Christopher Kent and Jeremy Lawson

Abstract: The article reviews the book "The Structure and Resilience of the Financial System," edited by Christopher Kent and Jeremy Lawson.

Are Financial Crises Alike

Abstract: This paper investigates whether financial crises are alike by considering whether a single modelling framework can fit multiple distinct crises in which contagion effects link markets across national borders and asset classes. The crises considered are Russia and LTCM in the second half of 1998, Brazil in early 1999, dot-com in 2000, Argentina in 2001-2005, and the recent U.S. subprime mortgage and credit crisis in 2007. Using daily stock and bond returns on emerging and developed markets from 1998 to 2007, the empirical results show that financial crises are indeed alike, as all linkages are statistically important across all crises. However, the strength of these linkages does vary across crises. Contagion channels are widespread during the Russian/LTCM crisis, are less important during subsequent crises until the subprime crisis, where again the transmission of contagion becomes rampant.

Progress Towards to Equity Market Integration in Eastern Europe

Abstract: The advent of the European Union has decreased the diversification benefits available from country based equity market indices in the region. This paper measures the increase in stock integration between the three largest new EU members (Hungary, the Czech Republic and Poland who joined in May 2004) and the Euro-zone. A potentially gradual transition in correlations is accommodated in a single VAR model by embedding smooth transition conditional correlation models with fat tails, spillovers, volatility clustering, and asymmetric volatility effects. At the country market index level all three Eastern European markets show a considerable increase in correlations in 2006. At the industry level the dates and transition periods for the correlations differ, and the correlations are lower although also increasing. The results show that sectoral indices in Eastern European markets may provide larger diversification opportunities than the aggregate market. JEL classifications: C32; C51; F36; G15 Keywords: Multivariate GARCH; Smooth Transition Conditional Correlation; Stock Return Comovement; Sectoral correlations; New EU Members