Machine Learning is the study of methods for programming computers to learn. Computers are applied to a wide range of tasks, and for most of these it is relatively easy for programmers to design and implement the necessary software. However, there are many tasks for which this is difficult or impossible. These can be divided into four general categories. First, there are problems for which there exist no human experts. For example, in modern automated manufacturing facilities, there is a need to predict machine failures before they occur by analyzing sensor readings. Because the machines are new, there are no human experts who can be interviewed by a programmer to provide the knowledge necessary to build a computer system. A machine learning system can study recorded data and subsequent machine failures and learn prediction rules. Second, there are problems where human experts exist, but where they are unable to explain their expertise. This is the case in many perceptual tasks, such as speech recognition, hand-writing recognition, and natural language understanding. Virtually all humans exhibit expert-level abilities on these tasks, but none of them can describe the detailed steps that they follow as they perform them. Fortunately, humans can provide machines with examples of the inputs and correct outputs for these tasks, so machine learning algorithms can learn to map the inputs to the outputs. Third, there are problems where phenomena are changing rapidly. In finance, for example, people would like to predict the future behavior of the stock market, of consumer purchases, or of exchange rates. These behaviors change frequently, so that even if a programmer could construct a good predictive computer program, it would need to be rewritten frequently. A learning program can relieve the programmer of this burden by constantly modifying and tuning a set of learned prediction rules. Fourth, there are applications that need to be customized for each computer user separately. Consider, for example, a program to filter unwanted electronic mail messages. Different users will need different filters. It is unreasonable to expect each user to program his or her own rules, and it is infeasible to provide every user with a software engineer to keep the rules up-to-date. A machine learning system can learn which mail messages the user rejects and maintain the filtering rules automatically. Machine learning addresses many of the same research questions as the fields of statistics, data mining, and psychology, but with differences of emphasis. Statistics focuses on understanding the phenomena that have generated the data, often with the goal of testing different hypotheses about those phenomena. Data mining seeks to find patterns in the data that are understandable by people. Psychological studies of human learning aspire to understand the mechanisms underlying the various learning behaviors exhibited by people (concept learning, skill acquisition, strategy change, etc.).

Machine learning

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Modern Applied Statistics With S

Evolutionary games on graphs

In the Hamadryas baboon, males are substantially larger than females. A troop of baboons is subdivided into a number of ‘one-male groups’, consisting of one adult male and one or more females with their young. The male prevents any of ‘his’ females from moving too far from him. Kummer (1971) performed the following experiment. Two males, A and B, previously unknown to each other, were placed in a large enclosure. Male A was free to move about the enclosure, but male B was shut in a small cage, from which he could observe A but not interfere. A female, unknown to both males, was then placed in the enclosure. Within 20 minutes male A had persuaded the female to accept his ownership. Male B was then released into the open enclosure. Instead of challenging male A , B avoided any contact, accepting A’s ownership.

Evolution and the Theory of Games

Variants of Naive Bayes (NB) and Support Vector Machines (SVM) are often used as baseline methods for text classification, but their performance varies greatly depending on the model variant, features used and task/dataset. We show that: (i) the inclusion of word bigram features gives consistent gains on sentiment analysis tasks; (ii) for short snippet sentiment tasks, NB actually does better than SVMs (while for longer documents the opposite result holds); (iii) a simple but novel SVM variant using NB log-count ratios as feature values consistently performs well across tasks and datasets. Based on these observations, we identify simple NB and SVM variants which outperform most published results on sentiment analysis datasets, sometimes providing a new state-of-the-art performance level.

Baselines and Bigrams: Simple, Good Sentiment and Topic Classification

Information retrieval (IR) researchers commonly use three tests of statistical significance: the Student's paired t-test, the Wilcoxon signed rank test, and the sign test. Other researchers have previously proposed using both the bootstrap and Fisher's randomization (permutation) test as non-parametric significance tests for IR but these tests have seen little use. For each of these five tests, we took the ad-hoc retrieval runs submitted to TRECs 3 and 5-8, and for each pair of runs, we measured the statistical significance of the difference in their mean average precision. We discovered that there is little practical difference between the randomization, bootstrap, and t tests. Both the Wilcoxon and sign test have a poor ability to detect significance and have the potential to lead to false detections of significance. The Wilcoxon and sign tests are simplified variants of the randomization test and their use should be discontinued for measuring the significance of a difference between means.

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A comparison of statistical significance tests for information retrieval evaluation

The TREC 2009 web ad hoc and relevance feedback tasks used a new document collection, the ClueWeb09 dataset, which was crawled from the general web in early 2009. This dataset contains 1 billion web pages, a substantial fraction of which are spam--pages designed to deceive search engines so as to deliver an unwanted payload. We examine the effect of spam on the results of the TREC 2009 web ad hoc and relevance feedback tasks, which used the ClueWeb09 dataset. We show that a simple content-based classifier with minimal training is efficient enough to rank the "spamminess" of every page in the dataset using a standard personal computer in 48 hours, and effective enough to yield significant and substantive improvements in the fixed-cutoff precision (estP10) as well as rank measures (estR-Precision, StatMAP, MAP) of nearly all submitted runs. Moreover, using a set of "honeypot" queries the labeling of training data may be reduced to an entirely automatic process. The results of classical information retrieval methods are particularly enhanced by filtering--from among the worst to among the best.

Efficient and effective spam filtering and re-ranking for large web datasets

For the TREC 2004 Novelty track, UMass participated in all four tasks. Although finding relevant sentences was harder this year than last, we continue to show marked improvements over the baseline of calling all sentences relevant, with a variant of tfidf being the most successful approach. We achieve 5‐9% improvements over the baseline in locating novel sentences, primarily by looking at the similarity of a sentence to earlier sentences and focusing on named entities. For the High Accuracy Retrieval from Documents (HARD) track, we investigated the use of clarification forms, fixed- and variable-length passage retrieval, and the use of metadata. Clarification form results indicate that passage level feedback can provide improvements comparable to user supplied related-text for document evaluation and outperforms related-text for passage evaluation. Document retrieval methods without a query expansion component show the most gains from related-text. We also found that displaying the top passages for feedback outperformed displaying centroid passages. Named entity feedback resulted in mixed performance. Our primary findings for passage retrieval are that document retrieval methods performed better than passage retrieval methods on the passage evaluation metric of binary preference at 12,000 characters, and that clarification forms improved passage retrieval for every retrieval method explored. We found no benefit to using variable-length passages over fixed-length passages for this corpus. Our use of geography and genre metadata resulted in no significant changes in retrieval performance.

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UMass at TREC 2004: Novelty and HARD

Many current effectiveness measures incorporate simplifying assumptions about user behavior. These assumptions prevent the measures from reflecting aspects of the search process that directly impact the quality of retrieval results as experienced by the user. In particular, these measures implicitly model users as working down a list of retrieval results, spending equal time assessing each document. In reality, even a careful user, intending to identify as much relevant material as possible, must spend longer on some documents than on others. Aspects such as document length, duplicates and summaries all influence the time required. In this paper, we introduce a time-biased gain measure, which explicitly accommodates such aspects of the search process. By conducting an appropriate user study, we calibrate and validate the measure against the TREC 2005 Robust Track test collection. We examine properties of the measure, contrasting it to traditional effectiveness measures, and exploring its extension to other aspects and environments. As its primary benefit, the measure allows us to evaluate system performance in human terms, while maintaining the simplicity and repeatability of system-oriented tests. Overall, we aim to achieve a clearer connection between user-oriented studies and system-oriented tests, allowing us to better transfer insights and outcomes from one to the other.

Time-based calibration of effectiveness measures

Partner selection is an important process in many social interactions, permitting individuals to decrease the risks associated with cooperation. In large populations, defectors may escape punishment by roving from partner to partner, but defectors in smaller populations risk social isolation. We investigate these possibilities for an evolutionary prisoner's dilemma in which agents use expected payoffs to choose and refuse partners. In comparison to random or round-robin partner matching, we find that the average payoffs attained with preferential partner selection tend to be more narrowly confined to a few isolated payoff regions. Most ecologies evolve to essentially full cooperative behavior, but when agents are intolerant of defections, or when the costs of refusal and social isolation are small, we also see the emergence of wallflower ecologies in which all agents are socially isolated. In between these two extremes, we see the emergence of ecologies whose agents tend to engage in a small number of defections followed by cooperation thereafter. The latter ecologies exhibit a plethora of interesting social interaction patterns. Keywords: Evolutionary Game; Iterated Prisoner's Dilemma; Partner Choice and Refusal; Artificial Life; Genetic Algorithm; Finite Automata.

Mark D. Smucker

Papers

A comparison of statistical significance tests for information retrieval evaluation

Efficient and effective spam filtering and re-ranking for large web datasets

UMass at TREC 2004: Novelty and HARD

Time-based calibration of effectiveness measures

Preferential Partner Selection in an Evolutionary Study of Prisoner's Dilemma