Showing papers by "Mark W. Fraser published in 2006"
TL;DR: In this paper, the predictive validity of the North Carolina Assessment of Risk (NCAR) in a sample of 9,534 adjudicated juveniles in North Carolina was analyzed. And the results showed that risk factors for recidivism differed according to demographic group and that brief risk assessment instruments like the NCAR leave other risk factors unmeasured.
Abstract: Structured risk assessment instruments are increasingly used in juvenile justice systems to support judicial decision making. They help juvenile justice authorities identify youths with a higher likelihood of repeat delinquency and reduce discretion associated with disposition decision making. To be effective, these instruments should be accurate across diverse populations. This study describes the predictive validity of the North Carolina Assessment of Risk (NCAR) in a sample of 9,534 adjudicated juveniles in North Carolina. Results show the predictive validity of the NCAR to differ by gender and race/ethnicity. Closer inspection reveals that risk factors for recidivism differed according to demographic group and that brief risk assessment instruments such as the NCAR leave other risk factors unmeasured. The results support the utility of risk assessment for juvenile justice decision making and suggest strategies to improve the validity of risk assessment for all offender groups. Language: en
113 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors apply event history analysis techniques to demonstrate a methodological strategy that accounts for changes over time in two family risk factors for high school graduation in a sample of 686 low-income youth attending school in an urban district.
Abstract: Human behavior is dynamic, influenced by changing situations over time. Yet the impact of the dynamic nature of important explanatory variables on outcomes has only recently begun to be estimated in developmental models. Using a risk factor perspective, this article demonstrates the potential benefits of regressing time-varying outcome measures on time-varying explanatory measures in longitudinal models. The authors apply event history analysis techniques to demonstrate a methodological strategy that accounts for changes over time in two family risk factors for high school graduation. In a sample of 686 low-income youth attending school in an urban district, the authors found that maternal employment status and income are significant predictors of high school graduation only when conceptualized and measured as time-varying influences. The implications for policy and practice and, from a methodological perspective, for the use of time-varying explanatory variables in event models are discussed.
52 citations
TL;DR: This article examined the advantages and disadvantages of using manuals as a basis for practice and proposed a series of design and practice principles intended to assist designers and users of manuals, and illustrated the application of these principles with a manualized program, Making Choices, whose aim is to decrease aggression and improve peer relationships in elementary school children.
Abstract: There is a growing trend in social work toward the use of group-based manuals. Occasionally considered to be opposing approaches, practice based on manualized curricula and practice based on group processes are—in our view—complementary to each other. In this paper, we examine the advantages and disadvantages of manuals as a basis for practice. We offer a series of design and practice principles intended to assist designers and users of manuals. We illustrate the application of these principles with a manualized program, Making Choices, whose aim is to decrease aggression and improve peer relationships in elementary school children.
32 citations