THE DESIGN AND ANALYSIS OF EXPERIMENTS. By Oscar Kempthorne. New York, John Wiley and Sons, Inc., 1952. 631 pp. $8.50. This book by a teacher of statistics (as well as a consultant for \"experimenters\") is a comprehensive study of the philosophical background for the statistical design of experiment. It is necessary to have some facility with algebraic notation and manipulation to be able to use the volume intelligently. The problems are presented from the theoretical point of view, without such practical examples as would be helpful for those not acquainted with mathematics. The mathematical justification for the techniques is given. As a somewhat advanced treatment of the design and analysis of experiments, this volume will be interesting and helpful for many who approach statistics theoretically as well as practically. With emphasis on the \"why,\" and with description given broadly, the author relates the subject matter to the general theory of statistics and to the general problem of experimental inference. MARGARET J. ROBERTSON

The Design and Analysis of Experiments

计量经济分析 = Econometric analysis

/pdf/convex-analysisnoer-san-nojin-zhan-nituite-5dl2rbmoyr.pdf

Convex Analysisの二,三の進展について

Models for the processes by which ideas and influence propagate through a social network have been studied in a number of domains, including the diffusion of medical and technological innovations, the sudden and widespread adoption of various strategies in game-theoretic settings, and the effects of "word of mouth" in the promotion of new products. Recently, motivated by the design of viral marketing strategies, Domingos and Richardson posed a fundamental algorithmic problem for such social network processes: if we can try to convince a subset of individuals to adopt a new product or innovation, and the goal is to trigger a large cascade of further adoptions, which set of individuals should we target?We consider this problem in several of the most widely studied models in social network analysis. The optimization problem of selecting the most influential nodes is NP-hard here, and we provide the first provable approximation guarantees for efficient algorithms. Using an analysis framework based on submodular functions, we show that a natural greedy strategy obtains a solution that is provably within 63% of optimal for several classes of models; our framework suggests a general approach for reasoning about the performance guarantees of algorithms for these types of influence problems in social networks.We also provide computational experiments on large collaboration networks, showing that in addition to their provable guarantees, our approximation algorithms significantly out-perform node-selection heuristics based on the well-studied notions of degree centrality and distance centrality from the field of social networks.

/pdf/maximizing-the-spread-of-influence-through-a-social-network-3nnj0jic76.pdf

Maximizing the spread of influence through a social network

The key idea behind active learning is that a machine learning algorithm can achieve greater accuracy with fewer training labels if it is allowed to choose the data from which it learns. An active learner may pose queries, usually in the form of unlabeled data instances to be labeled by an oracle (e.g., a human annotator). Active learning is well-motivated in many modern machine learning problems, where unlabeled data may be abundant or easily obtained, but labels are difficult, time-consuming, or expensive to obtain. This report provides a general introduction to active learning and a survey of the literature. This includes a discussion of the scenarios in which queries can be formulated, and an overview of the query strategy frameworks proposed in the literature to date. An analysis of the empirical and theoretical evidence for successful active learning, a summary of problem setting variants and practical issues, and a discussion of related topics in machine learning research are also presented.

Active Learning Literature Survey

LetN be a finite set andz be a real-valued function defined on the set of subsets ofN that satisfies z(S)+z(T)źz(SźT)+z(SźT) for allS, T inN. Such a function is called submodular. We consider the problem maxSźN{a(S):|S|≤K,z(S) submodular}.

Several hard combinatorial optimization problems can be posed in this framework. For example, the problem of finding a maximum weight independent set in a matroid, when the elements of the matroid are colored and the elements of the independent set can have no more thanK colors, is in this class. The uncapacitated location problem is a special case of this matroid optimization problem.

We analyze greedy and local improvement heuristics and a linear programming relaxation for this problem. Our results are worst case bounds on the quality of the approximations. For example, whenz(S) is nondecreasing andz(0) = 0, we show that a "greedy" heuristic always produces a solution whose value is at least 1 ź[(K ź 1)/K]K times the optimal value. This bound can be achieved for eachK and has a limiting value of (e ź 1)/e, where e is the base of the natural logarithm.

An analysis of approximations for maximizing submodular set functions--I

LetN be a finite set andz be a real-valued function defined on the set of subsets ofN that satisfies z(S)+z(T)gez(SxcupT)+z(SxcapT) for allS, T inN. Such a function is called submodular. We consider the problem maxSsubN{a(S):|S|leK,z(S) submodular}. Several hard combinatorial optimization problems can be posed in this framework. For example, the problem of finding a maximum weight independent set in a matroid, when the elements of the matroid are colored and the elements of the independent set can have no more thanK colors, is in this class. The uncapacitated location problem is a special case of this matroid optimization problem. We analyze greedy and local improvement heuristics and a linear programming relaxation for this problem. Our results are worst case bounds on the quality of the approximations. For example, whenz(S) is nondecreasing andz(0) = 0, we show that a ldquogreedyrdquo heuristic always produces a solution whose value is at least 1 –[(K – 1)/K] K times the optimal value. This bound can be achieved for eachK and has a limiting value of (e – 1)/e, where e is the base of the natural logarithm.

An analysis of approximations for maximizing submodular set functions II

What is the Right Supply Chain for Your Product

(This article originally appeared in Management Science, January 1981, Volume 27, Number 1, pp. 1-18, published by The Institute of Management Sciences.)

One of the most computationally useful ideas of the 1970s is the observation that many hard integer programming problems can be viewed as easy problems complicated by a relatively small set of side constraints. Dualizing the side constraints produces a Lagrangian problem that is easy to solve and whose optimal value is a lower bound (for minimization problems) on the optimal value of the original problem. The Lagrangian problem can thus be used in place of a linear programming relaxation to provide bounds in a branch and bound algorithm. This approach has led to dramatically improved algorithms for a number of important problems in the areas of routing, location, scheduling, assignment and set covering. This paper is a review of Lagrangian relaxation based on what has been learned in the last decade.

https://www.jstor.org/stable/info/2631139

The Lagrangian Relaxation Method for Solving Integer Programming Problems

In traditional supply chain inventory management, orders are the only information firms exchange, but information technology now allows firms to share demand and inventory data quickly and inexpensively. We study the value of sharing these data in a model with one supplier, N identical retailers, and stationary stochastic consumer demand. There are inventory holding costs and back-order penalty costs. We compare a traditional information policy that does not use shared information with a full information policy that does exploit shared information. In a numerical study we find that supply chain costs are 2.2% lower on average with the full information policy than with the traditional information policy, and the maximum difference is 12.1%. We also develop a simulation-based lower bound over all feasible policies. The cost difference between the traditional information policy and the lower bound is an upper bound on the value of information sharing: In the same study, that difference is 3.4% on average, and no more than 13.8%. We contrast the value of information sharing with two other benefits of information technology, faster and cheaper order processing, which lead to shorter lead times and smaller batch sizes, respectively. In our sample, cutting lead times nearly in half reduces costs by 21% on average, and cutting batches in half reduces costs by 22% on average. For the settings we study, we conclude that implementing information technology to accelerate and smooth the physical flow of goods through a supply chain is significantly more valuable than using information technology to expand the flow of information.

Marshall L. Fisher

Papers

An analysis of approximations for maximizing submodular set functions--I

An analysis of approximations for maximizing submodular set functions II

What is the Right Supply Chain for Your Product

The Lagrangian Relaxation Method for Solving Integer Programming Problems

Supply Chain Inventory Management and the Value of Shared Information