1. Introduction and Overview. 2. Detecting Influential Observations and Outliers. 3. Detecting and Assessing Collinearity. 4. Applications and Remedies. 5. Research Issues and Directions for Extensions. Bibliography. Author Index. Subject Index.

Regression Diagnostics: Identifying Influential Data and Sources of Collinearity

Simulation and the monte carlo method

Estimation of Cumulative Aquatic Exposure and Risk Due to Silver: Contribution of Nano-Functionalized Plastics and Textiles

Models are increasingly being relied upon to inform and support natural resource management. They are incorporating an ever broader range of disciplines and now often confront people without strong quantitative or model-building backgrounds. These trends imply a need for wider awareness of what constitutes good model-development practice, including reporting of models to users and sceptical review of models by users. To this end the paper outlines ten basic steps of good, disciplined model practice. The aim is to develop purposeful, credible models from data and prior knowledge, in consort with end-users, with every stage open to critical review and revision. Best practice entails identifying clearly the clients and objectives of the modelling exercise; documenting the nature (quantity, quality, limitations) of the data used to construct and test the model; providing a strong rationale for the choice of model family and features (encompassing review of alternative approaches); justifying the techniques used to calibrate the model; serious analysis, testing and discussion of model performance; and making a resultant statement of model assumptions, utility, accuracy, limitations, and scope for improvement. In natural resource management applications, these steps will be a learning process, even a partnership, between model developers, clients and other interested parties.

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Position Paper11Position papers aim to synthesise some key aspect of the knowledge platform for environmental modelling and software issues. The review process is twofold - a normal external review process followed by extensive review by EMS Board members. See the Editorial in this issue.: Ten iterative steps in development and evaluation of environmental models

Mathematical simulation models are commonly applied to analyze experimental or environmental data and eventually to acquire predictive capabilities. Typically these models depend on poorly defined, unmeasurable parameters that need to be given a value. Fitting a model to data, so-called inverse modelling, is often the sole way of finding reasonable values for these parameters. There are many challenges involved in inverse model applications, e.g., the existence of non-identifiable parameters, the estimation of parameter uncertainties and the quantification of the implications of these uncertainties on model predictions.

The R package FME is a modeling package designed to confront a mathematical model with data. It includes algorithms for sensitivity and Monte Carlo analysis, parameter identifiability, model fitting and provides a Markov-chain based method to estimate parameter confidence intervals. Although its main focus is on mathematical systems that consist of differential equations, FME can deal with other types of models. In this paper, FME is applied to a model describing the dynamics of the HIV virus.

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Martin Omlin

Papers

A comparison of techniques for the estimation of model prediction uncertainty

On the usefulness of overparameterized ecological models

Biogeochemical model of Lake Zürich : sensitivity, identifiability and uncertainty analysis

Biogeochemical model of Lake Zurich: model equations and results