世界経済・社会統計 = World development indicators

The East Asian miracle: Economic growth and public policy: By the World Bank. (New York: Oxford University Press for the World Bank, 1993. 389 pp. $19.95, paper.)

This chapter discusses leading problems linked to energy that the world is now confronting and to propose some ideas concerning possible solutions. Oil deserves special attention among all energy sources. Since the beginning of 1981, it has merely been continuing and enhancing the downward movement in consumption and prices caused by excessive rises, especially for light crudes such as those from Africa, and the slowing down of worldwide economic growth. Densely-populated oil-producing countries need to produce to live, to pay for their food and their equipment. If the economic growth of the industrialized countries were to be 4%, even if investment in the rational use of energy were pushed to the limit and the development of nonpetroleum energy sources were also pursued actively, it would be extremely difficult to prevent a sharp rise in prices. It is evident that it is absolutely necessary to pursue actively the development of coal, natural gas, and nuclear power if a physical shortage of energy is not to block economic growth.

World energy outlook

This thesis investigates the relationship between economic growth and financial development in developing countries over 1988-2001. Previous studies have generally used averaged data, for both developing and developed countries, and inappropriate estimation methods. In an attempt to reach some definitive conclusions, Generalised Method of Moments dynamic estimation is used with a newly collected panel of annual data to assess the relationship. The results show that while banks performance has a negative impact on growth, stock markets positively promote growth. To reach an overall conclusion about the impact of finance on growth and to solve the problems associated with the existence of multicollinearity among the different measures of financial development, principal components analysis is used to generate new, comprehensive measures of financial development. In assessing the link between the new measures and financial development and growth, the results support the existence of an overall positive relationship. The thesis also examines the behaviour of interest rates in developing and industrialised countries using individual and panel unit root tests. The results are sensitive to the choice of the test, country and time unit.

Stock markets, banks and economic growth

The recent financial crisis has highlighted the need to go beyond a purely micro approach to financial regulation and supervision. As a consequence, the number of policy speeches, research papers and conferences that discuss a macro perspective on financial regulation has grown considerably. The policy debate is focusing in particular on macroprudential tools and their usage, their relationship with monetary policy, their implementation and their effectiveness. Macroprudential policy has recently also attracted considerable attention among researchers. This paper provides an overview of research on this topic. We also identify important future research questions that emerge from both the literature and the current policy debate.

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Macroprudential policy – a literature review

East Asian economic regionalism: progress and challenges

Permanent income, hedonic prices, and demand for housing: New evidence

International trade with forward-futures markets under exchange rate and price uncertainty

Was financial market contagion the source of economic crisis in Asia? Evidence using a multivariate VAR model

Although a latecomer, economically important Asia has emerged at the forefront of global free trade agreement (FTA) activity This has sparked concerns about the negative effects of Asian FTAs, including the “noodle bowl” problem Amid slow progress in the World Trade Organization’s (WTO) Doha negotiations and the global financial crisis, however, Asian regionalism seems to be here to stay The focus for policy makers should then be how best to minimize the costs of FTAs while maximizing their benefits Adopting a pragmatic perspective, this paper examines key trends and challenges in Asian FTAs It provides new evidence from firm surveys, analysis of specific agreements, and computable general equilibrium estimates It provides the following set of recommendations: strengthen the support system for using FTAs; rationalize rules of origin and upgrade their administration; ensure better coverage of agricultural trade; forge comprehensive “WTO-plus” agreements; and encourage a regionwide FTA Political economy considerations suggest that a likely scenario is for FTA consolidation in Asia – by creating a People’s Republic of China-Japan-Republic of Korea FTA, combining it with ASEAN 1 FTAs, and then involving Australia, India, and New Zealand – to be followed by connections with North America and Europe In conclusion, the analysis suggests that a bottom-up approach to a Doha Round Agreement should be adopted

Masahiro Kawai

Papers

East Asian economic regionalism: progress and challenges

Permanent income, hedonic prices, and demand for housing: New evidence

International trade with forward-futures markets under exchange rate and price uncertainty

Was financial market contagion the source of economic crisis in Asia? Evidence using a multivariate VAR model

Asian FTAs: Trends, Prospects, and Challenges