A central challenge for sustainability is how to preserve forest ecosystems and the services that they provide us while enhancing food production. This challenge for developing countries confronts the force of economic globalization, which seeks cropland that is shrinking in availability and triggers deforestation. Four mechanisms—the displacement, rebound, cascade, and remittance effects—that are amplified by economic globalization accelerate land conversion. A few developing countries have managed a land use transition over the recent decades that simultaneously increased their forest cover and agricultural production. These countries have relied on various mixes of agricultural intensification, land use zoning, forest protection, increased reliance on imported food and wood products, the creation of off-farm jobs, foreign capital investments, and remittances. Sound policies and innovations can therefore reconcile forest preservation with food production. Globalization can be harnessed to increase land use efficiency rather than leading to uncontrolled land use expansion. To do so, land systems should be understood and modeled as open systems with large flows of goods, people, and capital that connect local land use with global-scale factors.

https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/108/9/3465.full.pdf

Global land use change, economic globalization, and the looming land scarcity

Species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly proposed to support conservation decision making. However, evidence of SDMs supporting solutions for on-ground conservation problems is still scarce in the scientific literature. Here, we show that successful examples exist but are still largely hidden in the grey literature, and thus less accessible for analysis and learning. Furthermore, the decision framework within which SDMs are used is rarely made explicit. Using case studies from biological invasions, identification of critical habitats, reserve selection and translocation of endangered species, we propose that SDMs may be tailored to suit a range of decision-making contexts when used within a structured and transparent decision-making process. To construct appropriate SDMs to more effectively guide conservation actions, modellers need to better understand the decision process, and decision makers need to provide feedback to modellers regarding the actual use of SDMs to support conservation decisions. This could be facilitated by individuals or institutions playing the role of 'translators' between modellers and decision makers. We encourage species distribution modellers to get involved in real decision-making processes that will benefit from their technical input; this strategy has the potential to better bridge theory and practice, and contribute to improve both scientific knowledge and conservation outcomes.

/pdf/predicting-species-distributions-for-conservation-decisions-2ycxvy2131.pdf

Predicting species distributions for conservation decisions

▪ Abstract The world's system of protected areas has grown exponentially over the past 25 years, particularly in developing countries where biodiversity is greatest. Concurrently, the mission of protected areas has expanded from biodiversity conservation to improving human welfare. The result is a shift in favor of protected areas allowing local resource use. Given the multiple purposes of many protected areas, measuring effectiveness is difficult. Our review of 49 tropical protected areas shows that parks are generally effective at curtailing deforestation within their boundaries. But deforestation in surrounding areas is isolating protected areas. Many initiatives now aim to link protected areas to local socioeconomic development. Some of these initiatives have been successful, but in general expectations need to be tempered regarding the capacity of protected areas to alleviate poverty. Greater attention must also be paid to the broader policy context of biodiversity loss, poverty, and unsustainable la...

http://web.mnstate.edu/wisenden/TFB2013/Naughton-Treves%202005%20role%20of%20protected%20areas%20in%20conserving%20biodiversity.pdf

The role of protected areas in conserving biodiversity and sustaining local livelihoods

Human–wildlife conflict is one of the most critical threats facing many wildlife species today, and the topic is receiving increasing attention from conservation biologists. Direct wildlife damage is commonly cited as the main driver of conflict, and many tools exist for reducing such damage. However, significant conflict often remains even after damage has been reduced, suggesting that conflict requires novel, comprehensive approaches for long-term resolution. Although most mitigation studies investigate only the technical aspects of conflict reduction, peoples' attitudes towards wildlife are complex, with social factors as diverse as religious affiliation, ethnicity and cultural beliefs all shaping conflict intensity. Moreover, human–wildlife conflicts are often manifestations of underlying human–human conflicts, such as between authorities and local people, or between people of different cultural backgrounds. Despite evidence that social factors can be more important in driving conflict than wildlife damage incurred, they are often ignored in conflict studies. Developing a broader awareness of conflict drivers will advance understanding of the patterns and underlying processes behind this critical conservation issue. In this paper, I review a wide variety of case studies to show how social factors strongly influence perceptions of human–wildlife conflict, and highlight how mitigation approaches should become increasingly innovative and interdisciplinary in order to enable people to move from conflict towards coexistence.

https://zslpublications.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/j.1469-1795.2010.00368.x

Complexities of conflict: the importance of considering social factors for effectively resolving human–wildlife conflict

Summary
Reliable assessment of animal populations is a long-standing challenge in wildlife ecology. Technological advances have led to widespread adoption of camera traps (CTs) to survey wildlife distribution, abundance and behaviour. As for any wildlife survey method, camera trapping must contend with sources of sampling error such as imperfect detection. Early applications focused on density estimation of naturally marked species, but there is growing interest in broad-scale CT surveys of unmarked populations and communities. Nevertheless, inferences based on detection indices are controversial, and the suitability of alternatives such as occupancy estimation is debatable.
We reviewed 266 CT studies published between 2008 and 2013. We recorded study objectives and methodologies, evaluating the consistency of CT protocols and sampling designs, the extent to which CT surveys considered sampling error, and the linkages between analytical assumptions and species ecology.
Nearly two-thirds of studies surveyed more than one species, and a majority used response variables that ignored imperfect detection (e.g. presence–absence, relative abundance). Many studies used opportunistic sampling and did not explicitly report details of sampling design and camera deployment that could affect conclusions.
Most studies estimating density used capture–recapture methods on marked species, with spatially explicit methods becoming more prominent. Few studies estimated density for unmarked species, focusing instead on occupancy modelling or measures of relative abundance. While occupancy studies estimated detectability, most did not explicitly define key components of the modelling framework (e.g. a site) or discuss potential violations of model assumptions (e.g. site closure). Studies using relative abundance relied on assumptions of equal detectability, and most did not explicitly define expected relationships between measured responses and underlying ecological processes (e.g. animal abundance and movement).
Synthesis and applications. The rapid adoption of camera traps represents an exciting transition in wildlife survey methodology. We remain optimistic about the technology's promise, but call for more explicit consideration of underlying processes of animal abundance, movement and detection by cameras, including more thorough reporting of methodological details and assumptions. Such transparency will facilitate efforts to evaluate and improve the reliability of camera trap surveys, ultimately leading to stronger inferences and helping to meet modern needs for effective ecological inquiry and biodiversity monitoring.

https://besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1365-2664.12432

REVIEW: Wildlife camera trapping: a review and recommendations for linking surveys to ecological processes

Data from camera traps that record the time of day at which photographs are taken are used widely to study daily activity patterns of photographed species. It is often of interest to compare activity patterns, for example, between males and females of a species or between a predator and a prey species. In this article we propose that the similarity between two activity patterns may be quantified by a measure of the extent to which the patterns overlap. Several methods of estimating this overlap measure are described and their comparative performance for activity data is investigated in a simulation study. The methods are illustrated by comparing activity patterns of three sympatric felid species using data from camera traps in Kerinci Seblat National Park, Sumatra.

/pdf/estimating-overlap-of-daily-activity-patterns-from-camera-4t9a0wcb5s.pdf

Estimating overlap of daily activity patterns from camera trap data

Little is known about interactions between the critically endangered Sumatran tiger Panthera tigris sumatrae and its prey because of the difficulties associated with detecting these species. In this study, we quantify temporal overlap between the Sumatran tiger and five of its presumed prey species from four study areas comprising disturbed lowland to primary submontane forest. Data from 126 camera traps over 8984 camera days were used to estimate species activity patterns and, in turn, their overlap through the coefficient Δ (ranging from 0 to 1, i.e. no overlap to complete overlap). A newly developed statistical technique was applied to determine confidence intervals associated with respective overlap, which is important, as such measures of precision are usually not estimated in these types of study. Strong temporal overlap was found between tiger and muntjac Muntiacus muntjac (Δ=0.80, 95%CI=0.71–0.84) and tiger and sambar Cervus unicolor (Δ=0.81, 0.55–0.85), with the latter illustrating the importance of measuring precision. According to the foraging theory, Sumatran tigers should focus on expending lower levels of energy searching for and then capturing larger bodied prey that present the least risk. Hence, surprisingly, there was little overlap between the crepuscular tiger and the largest-bodied prey species available, the nocturnal tapir Tapirus indicus (0.52, 0.44–0.60), suggesting that it is not a principal prey species. This study provides the first insights into Sumatran tiger–prey temporal interactions. The ability to estimate overlap statistics with measures of precision has obvious and wide benefits for other predator–prey and interspecific competition studies.

https://zslpublications.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/j.1469-7998.2011.00801.x

Assessing tiger–prey interactions in Sumatran rainforests

Aim

This study determines whether the establishment of tropical protected areas (PAs) has led to a reduction in deforestation within their boundaries or whether deforestation has been displaced to adjacent unprotected areas: a process termed neighbourhood leakage.

Location

Sumatra, Indonesia.

Methods

We processed and analysed 98 corresponding LANDSAT satellite images with a c. 800 m2 resolution to map deforestation from 1990 to 2000 across 440,000 km2 on the main island of Sumatra and the smaller island of Siberut. We compared deforestation rates across three categories of land: (1) within PAs; (2) in adjacent unprotected land lying with 10 km of PA boundaries; and (3) within the wider unprotected landscape. We used the statistical method of propensity score matching to predict the deforestation that would have been observed had there been no PAs and to control for the generally remote locations in which Sumatran PAs were established.

Results

During the period 1990–2000 deforestation rates were found to be lower inside PAs than in adjacent unprotected areas or in the wider landscape. Deforestation rates were also found to be lower in adjacent unprotected areas than in the wider landscape.

Main conclusions

Sumatran PAs have lower deforestation rates than unprotected areas. Furthermore, a reduction in deforestation rates inside Sumatran PAs has promoted protection, rather than deforestation, in adjacent unprotected land lying within 10 km of PA boundaries. Despite this positive evaluation, deforestation and logging have not halted within the boundaries of Sumatran PAs. Therefore the long-term viability of Sumatran forests remains open to question.

Evaluating whether protected areas reduce tropical deforestation in Sumatra

Summary


1
Conservation managers require accurate and timely information on the occurrence, size and viability of populations, but this is often difficult for cryptic species living at low densities over large areas. This study aimed to provide such information for tigers in the 36 400-km2 Kerinci Seblat (KS) region, Sumatra, by identifying and assessing subpopulation viability under different management strategies.

2
Tiger occurrence was mapped within a geographical information system (GIS) using repeat detection–non-detection surveys to incorporate a function of detection probability into a logistic regression model. The landscape variables that influenced tiger occupancy were then used to construct a spatially explicit habitat model to identify core areas.

3
The number of tigers within each core area was estimated by calculating the area of different forest types and their respective tiger densities as determined through camera trapping. The viability of each subpopulation was then assessed under different management scenarios using a population viability analysis (PVA).

4
Tiger occurrence was negatively correlated with distance to public roads. Four core tiger areas were identified, all predominantly located within KS National Park, estimated to support subpopulations of 21, 105, 16 and three adult tigers, respectively. PVA showed that the three larger subpopulations could be demographically viable if well protected. However, if poaching removed ≥ 3 tigers per year, then only the largest subpopulation would not reach extinction within 50 years. Connectivity to this large subpopulation would ensure survival of the smaller subpopulations, through providing a source of tigers to offset poaching losses.

5
Synthesis and applications. Our key management recommendations for tigers in the Kerinci Seblat region of Sumatra stress the importance of maintaining connectivity between the smaller areas and the larger area, and minimizing poaching within these smaller areas. More widely, our research has shown the feasibility of using detection–non-detection surveys combined with spatial modelling to provide timely information for conservation management.

/pdf/assessing-the-viability-of-tiger-subpopulations-in-a-3xat00cpfw.pdf

Assessing the viability of tiger subpopulations in a fragmented landscape

Crop raiding can reduce farmers' tolerance towards wildlife. Despite higher human population densities in rural areas, and more rapid conversion of forest to farmland, much less is known about crop raiding in Asia than in Africa. Over 14 months, we identified perceived and actual crop pests, and their patterns of crop raiding from farmland in and around Kerinci Seblat National Park, Sumatra. Farmers named either the wild boar Sus scrofa (80%) or the pig-tailed macaque Macaca nemestrina (20%) as the two most destructive crop pests. From 5125 crop raids by 11 species of mammal, most raids were indeed made by the wild boar (56%) and the pig-tailed macaque (19%). For all species combined, temporal crop raiding peaks were positively correlated with periods of high rainfall. Spatially, most crop raids occurred nearest to the forest edge and the local guarding strategies used were ineffective. However, raids by wild boars were more extensive than raids by pig-tailed macaques, which caused much greater crop damage (73%) than wild boars (26%), contrary to farmers' perceptions. Our research suggests that alternative mitigation strategies need to be trialed over dry and rainy seasons to identify the most effective strategies and that guarding effort should be increased during the rainy seasons and tailored towards specific crop raiding species based on their unique spatial patterns.

https://zslpublications.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/j.1469-1795.2006.00083.x

Matthew Linkie

Papers

Estimating overlap of daily activity patterns from camera trap data

Assessing tiger–prey interactions in Sumatran rainforests

Evaluating whether protected areas reduce tropical deforestation in Sumatra

Assessing the viability of tiger subpopulations in a fragmented landscape

Patterns and perceptions of wildlife crop raiding in and around Kerinci Seblat National Park, Sumatra