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Modern Applied Statistics With S

Recent case studies showing substantial declines of insect abundances have raised alarm, but how widespread such patterns are remains unclear. We compiled data from 166 long-term surveys of insect assemblages across 1676 sites to investigate trends in insect abundances over time. Overall, we found considerable variation in trends even among adjacent sites but an average decline of terrestrial insect abundance by ~9% per decade and an increase of freshwater insect abundance by ~11% per decade. Both patterns were largely driven by strong trends in North America and some European regions. We found some associations with potential drivers (e.g., land-use drivers), and trends in protected areas tended to be weaker. Our findings provide a more nuanced view of spatiotemporal patterns of insect abundance trends than previously suggested.

Meta-analysis reveals declines in terrestrial but increases in freshwater insect abundances.

Glaciers distinct from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets cover an area of approximately 706,000 square kilometres globally1, with an estimated total volume of 170,000 cubic kilometres, or 0.4 metres of potential sea-level-rise equivalent2. Retreating and thinning glaciers are icons of climate change3 and affect regional runoff4 as well as global sea level5,6. In past reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, estimates of changes in glacier mass were based on the multiplication of averaged or interpolated results from available observations of a few hundred glaciers by defined regional glacier areas7–10. For data-scarce regions, these results had to be complemented with estimates based on satellite altimetry and gravimetry11. These past approaches were challenged by the small number and heterogeneous spatiotemporal distribution of in situ measurement series and their often unknown ability to represent their respective mountain ranges, as well as by the spatial limitations of satellite altimetry (for which only point data are available) and gravimetry (with its coarse resolution). Here we use an extrapolation of glaciological and geodetic observations to show that glaciers contributed 27 ± 22 millimetres to global mean sea-level rise from 1961 to 2016. Regional specific-mass-change rates for 2006–2016 range from −0.1 metres to −1.2 metres of water equivalent per year, resulting in a global sea-level contribution of 335 ± 144 gigatonnes, or 0.92 ± 0.39 millimetres, per year. Although statistical uncertainty ranges overlap, our conclusions suggest that glacier mass loss may be larger than previously reported11. The present glacier mass loss is equivalent to the sea-level contribution of the Greenland Ice Sheet12, clearly exceeds the loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet13, and accounts for 25 to 30 per cent of the total observed sea-level rise14. Present mass-loss rates indicate that glaciers could almost disappear in some mountain ranges in this century, while heavily glacierized regions will continue to contribute to sea-level rise beyond 2100.The largest collection so far of glaciological and geodetic observations suggests that glaciers contributed about 27 millimetres to sea-level rise from 1961 to 2016, at rates of ice loss that could see the disappearance of many glaciers this century.

Global glacier mass changes and their contributions to sea-level rise from 1961 to 2016

Multivariate statistics for wildlife and ecology research

This document is a part of the Synthesis and Assessment Products described in the U.S. Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan. The report describes how climate affects the design, construction, safety, operations, and maintenance of transportation infrastructure and systems. The prospect of a changing climate raises critical questions regarding how alterations in temperature, precipitation, storm events, and other aspects of the climate could affect the nation's roads, airports, rail, transit systems, pipelines, ports, and waterways. Phase I of this regional assessment of climate change and its potential impacts on transportation systems addresses these questions for the region of the U.S. central Gulf Coast between Galveston, Texas and Mobile, Alabama.

The Effects of Climate Change on Agriculture, Land Resources, Water Resources, and Biodiversity in the United States

Biodiversity of ground beetles (Coleoptera: Carabidae) in different habitats of the Italian Po lowland

The spatio-temporal approach was used to evaluate the environmental features influencing carabid beetle assemblages along a chronosequence of an Italian Alpine glacier foreland. The influence of environmental variables on species richness, morphology (wing and body length), and distribution along the chronosequence was tested. 2. Species richness was found to be a poor indicator of habitat due to weak influences by environmental variables. It seems that the neighbouring habitats of a glacier foreland are not able to determine significant changes in carabid species richness. 3. Instead it appears that history (age since deglaciation) and habitat architecture of a glacier foreland are strongly correlated to species adaptive morphological traits, such as wing morphology and body length. Assemblages characterised by species with reduced wing size are linked to the older stages of the chronosequence, where habitat is more structured. Assemblages characterised by the largest species are linked to the younger sites near the glacier. These morphological differentiations are explained in detail. 4. Habitat age can therefore be considered the main force determining assemblage composition. On the basis of the relationship between morphological traits and en- vironmental variables, it seems likely that age since deglaciation is the main variable influencing habitat structure (primary effect) on the Forni foreland. The strong rela- tionship between carabid assemblages and habitat type indicates that site age has but a secondary effect on carabid assemblages. This may be utilised to interpret potential changes in assemblages linked to future glacier retreat.

Environmental features influencing Carabid beetle (Coleoptera) assemblages along a recently deglaciated area in the Alpine region

The 154-year (1850–2004) chronosequence of the Forni Glacier foreland has been studied by sampling ant, centipede, ground beetle, and spider species assemblages. Species numbers increase with terrain age along the chronosequence from 2 to 26 on the oldest soils. Thirty-nine species were collected; species richness and diversity (Shannon's Index) of communities are correlated to the year of soil deglaciation. Shannon Index values increase with sites deglaciated between 1 and 61 years ago; sites deglaciated between 61 and 78 years ago produce similar values, and those deglaciated 78 to 154 years ago show a further increase in diversity. Ground beetles and spiders are found at all sites, while ants and centipedes were associated with mature forest soils. On the glacier surface, pioneer species such as the wolf-spider Pardosa saturatior and the ground beetle Oreonebria castanea permanently inhabit the supraglacial detritus surviving on trophic resources. Wingless ground beetle species are associated ...

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Epigean Arthropod Succession along a 154-year Glacier Foreland Chronosequence in the Forni Valley (Central Italian Alps)

The largest debris-covered glacier in the Alps (Miage Glacier, western Italian Alps) has been studied to explore the effects of debris-cover extent and depth on the spatial distribution of ground-dwelling arthropods. A multitaxa approach has been used to compare taxa richness and distribution to the functional role (dietary habits) of each taxon along the glacier tongue. Spiders and ground beetles have been studied in detail. Taxa richness declines with distance from the wooded sites (in front of the glacier tongue) to those above the glacier tongue. At each of the supraglacial sites, spiders, ground beetles, aphids, springtails and flies were found. A change in the dominance of the different functional roles was observed along the tongue. Wooded sites are characterised by predatory (e.g. spiders, beetles), detrivore (e.g. springtails and certain flies), phytophagous (e.g. aphids, certain beetles) and parasitoid (e.g. certain wasps) assemblages, whereas at the debris-covered sites, aphids, flies and sprin...

Arthropod colonisation of a debris-covered glacier:

The impact of global warming in space and time is described for species assemblages of wandering spiders along the alpine glacier foreland of the Forni Valley (Northern Italy). We tested the effect of environmental variables (e.g. elevation, age of glacier retreat, vegetation cover, debris cover) on species richness and on species composition of spiders. Age of glacier retreat was the only significant variable influencing spider species assemblages in the valley. A spatially structured distribution of species and species assemblages along the chronosequence of glacier retreat was evidenced. The threshold abruptly differentiating two groups of species richness and species composition fell between sites deglaciated 100 and 155 years before the analysis. Latitudinal shifts towards the poles in species ranges at the global scale in response to climatic changes are known, and an altitudinal shift in species range should be expected for spiders at the local scale of the Forni Valley. Such a shift is present in spider species assemblages, although not as an expected gradual change in species richness and composition, but with a threshold effect after one century of glacier retreat. We discuss our results in the light of plausible future scenarios due to global warming, the consequence of further glacier retreats onto spiders, and caveats for monitoring studies.

Mauro Gobbi

Papers

Biodiversity of ground beetles (Coleoptera: Carabidae) in different habitats of the Italian Po lowland

Environmental features influencing Carabid beetle (Coleoptera) assemblages along a recently deglaciated area in the Alpine region

Epigean Arthropod Succession along a 154-year Glacier Foreland Chronosequence in the Forni Valley (Central Italian Alps)

Arthropod colonisation of a debris-covered glacier:

Influence of climate changes on animal communities in space and time: the case of spider assemblages along an alpine glacier foreland