The Industrious Revolution by Jan de Vries

This bibliography is a continuation of and a complement to those published in the Urban History Yearbook 1974–91 and Urban History 1992–2002. The arrangement and format closely follows that of previous years. There is an index of towns on pp. 504–507. The list of abbreviations identifies only those periodicals from which articles cited this year have been taken.

https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/S0963926800011299

Current bibliography of urban history

1. The transformation of consumer desire in the long eighteenth century 2. The origins of the Industrious Revolution 3. The Industrious Revolution: the supply of labor 4. The Industrious Revolution: consumer demand 5. The breadwinner-homemaker household 6. A second Industrious Revolution? Appendix I.

The industrious revolution: consumer behavior and the household economy, 1650 to the present

This time-series analysis examines during 1860-1910 the impact of changes in local prices of agricultural commodities on wages among men and women in Sweden and the impact of changes in wages on fertility decline child mortality urbanization and improved social conditions. Linear ordinary least squares models are set up to determine whether demand-induced increases in womens wages relative to mens are significant factors in explaining Swedish total fertility rates. Data are obtained from 25 counties and the city of Stockholm among pooled observations for six time periods during 1860-64 and 1910-14. This period is marked by a total fertility decline of 28% a marital fertility decline of 26% and a child mortality decline of 52%. Explanatory variables are the relative prices of main agricultural outputs employment outside of agriculture the proportion of urban population and the child mortality rate. Findings indicate a significant relationship between child mortality and total fertility and specific fertility rates among women aged 20-39 years. A doubling of the male real wage rate was significantly associated with earlier marriage higher birth rates among women aged 15-29 years and lower birth rates among women aged 35-49 years. The ratio of male wages to female wages was associated with a decline in birth rates at all ages with the exception of teenagers. 66% of fertility increase was due to declines in child mortality but this increase was counterbalanced by fertility decline among older women. Child mortality and urbanization depressed marital fertility. Male wages increased the proportion married. A 10% increase in the male/female wage rate was associated with a 25% reduction in the total fertility rate. Another 25% increase in the male/female wage rate was associated with a 50% reduction in child mortality. It is concluded that the value of womens time had a key impact on the Swedish fertility transition.

/pdf/changing-world-prices-women-s-wages-and-the-fertility-2hxf8yhibu.pdf

Changing world prices, women's wages, and the fertility transition: Sweden, 1860-1910.

In this paper we use data from the US census to document the history of the relationship between fertility choice and key economic indicators at the individual level for women born between 1826 and 1960. We find that this data suggests several new facts that should be useful for researchers trying to model fertility. (1) The reduction in fertility known as the Demographic Transition (or the Fertility Transition) seems to be much sharper based on cohort fertility measures compared to usual measures like Total Fertility Rate; (2) The baby boom was not quite as large as is suggested by some previous work; (3) We find a strong negative relationship between income and fertility for all cohorts and estimate an overall income elasticity of about -0.38 for the period; (4) We also find systematic deviations from a time invariant isoelastic relationship between income and fertility. The most interesting of these is an increase in the income elasticity of demand for children for the 1876-1880 to 1906-1910birth cohorts. This implies an increased spread in fertility by income which was followed by a dramatic compression. (authors)

/pdf/an-economic-history-of-fertility-in-the-u-s-1826-1960-2ogujsqc7b.pdf

Michael R. Haines

Papers

Fertility and Occupation: Population Patterns in Industrialization