ARCH modeling in finance: A review of the theory and empirical evidence

This paper presents a new approach to estimation and inference in panel data models with a multifactor error structure where the unobserved common factors are (possibly) correlated with exogenously given individual-specific regressors, and the factor loadings differ over the cross section units. The basic idea behind the proposed estimation procedure is to filter the individual-specific regressors by means of (weighted) cross-section aggregates such that asymptotically as the cross-section dimension (N) tends to infinity the differential effects of unobserved common factors are eliminated. The estimation procedure has the advantage that it can be computed by OLS applied to an auxiliary regression where the observed regressors are augmented by (weighted) cross sectional averages of the dependent variable and the individual specific regressors. Two different but related problems are addressed: one that concerns the coefficients of the individual-specific regressors, and the other that focusses on the mean of the individual coefficients assumed random. In both cases appropriate estimators, referred to as common correlated effects (CCE) estimators, are proposed and their asymptotic distribution as N with T (the time-series dimension) fixed or as N and T (jointly) are derived under different regularity conditions. One important feature of the proposed CCE mean group (CCEMG) estimator is its invariance to the (unknown but fixed) number of unobserved common factors as N and T (jointly). The small sample properties of the various pooled estimators are investigated by Monte Carlo experiments that confirm the theoretical derivations and show that the pooled estimators have generally satisfactory small sample properties even for relatively small values of N and T.

Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with a Multifactor Error Structure

Using a Bayesian likelihood approach, we estimate a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for the US economy using seven macro-economic time series. The model incorporates many types of real and nominal frictions and seven types of structural shocks. We show that this model is able to compete with Bayesian Vector Autoregression models in out-of-sample prediction. We investigate the relative empirical importance of the various frictions. Finally, using the estimated model we address a number of key issues in business cycle analysis: What are the sources of business cycle fluctuations? Can the model explain the cross-correlation between output and inflation? What are the effects of productivity on hours worked? What are the sources of the "Great Moderation"?

/pdf/shocks-and-frictions-in-us-business-cycles-a-bayesian-dsge-d1f6ynd58q.pdf

Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach

Preface MATRICES: Basic Properties of Vectors and Matrices Kronecker Products, the Vec-Operator and the Moore- Penrose Inverse Miscellaneous Matrix Results DIFFERENTIALS: THE THEORY: Mathematical Preliminaries Differentials and Differentiability The Second Differential Static Optimization DIFFERENTIALS: THE PRACTICE: Some Important Differentials First- Order Differentials and Jacobian Matrices Second-Order Differentials and Hessian Matrices INEQUALITIES: Inequalities THE LINEAR MODEL: Statistical Preliminaries The Linear Regression Model Further Topics in the Linear Model APPLICATIONS TO MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATION: Maximum Likelihood Estimation Simultaneous Equations Topics in Psychometrics Subject Index Bibliography.

Matrix Differential Calculus with Applications in Statistics and Econometrics

Limited information estimators and exogeneity tests for simultaneous probit models

This paper discusses the best way to formulate and estimate a dynamic econometric model when interest focuses mainly upon its long-run properties. Using results derived for the more general context of transformed regression models, it is shown how point estimates and the standard errors of long-run multipliers and long-run structural coefficients can be obtained using standard estimation methods. It is argued that such formulations are preferable to other specifications such as the error correction model. If the explanatory variables that enter the long-run solution are trend-stationary then it is found that no harm is done to the asymptotic properties of the long-run coefficients by omitting short-run dynamics entirely, though this is not recommended in practice. The results of this paper are related to the concept of co-integration and to the work of Engle and Granger. Finally, a new methodology for the construction of dynamic models is proposed.

Dynamic Specification, the Long-Run and The Estimation of Transformed Regression Models

Macroeconomic Theory is the most up-to-date graduate-level macroeconomics textbook available today. This revised second edition emphasizes the general equilibrium character of macroeconomics to explain effects across the whole economy while taking into account recent research in the field. It is the perfect resource for students and researchers seeking coverage of the most current developments in macroeconomics.

	Michael Wickens lays out the core ideas of modern macroeconomics and its links with finance. He presents the simplest general equilibrium macroeconomic model for a closed economy, and then gradually develops a comprehensive model of the open economy. Every important topic is covered, including growth, business cycles, fiscal policy, taxation and debt finance, current account sustainability, and exchange-rate determination. There is also an up-to-date account of monetary policy through inflation targeting. Wickens addresses the interrelationships between macroeconomics and modern finance and shows how they affect stock, bond, and foreign-exchange markets. In this edition, he also examines issues raised by the most recent financial crisis, and two new chapters explore banks, financial intermediation, and unconventional monetary policy, as well as modern theories of unemployment. There is new material in most other chapters, including macrofinance models and inflation targeting when there are supply shocks. While the mathematics in the book is rigorous, the fundamental concepts presented make the text self-contained and easy to use. Accessible, comprehensive, and wide-ranging, Macroeconomic Theory is the standard book on the subject for students and economists.

	
		The most up-to-date graduate macroeconomics textbook available today
	
		General equilibrium macroeconomics and the latest advances covered fully and completely
	
		Two new chapters investigate banking and monetary policy, and unemployment
	
		Addresses questions raised by the recent financial crisis
	
		Web-based exercises with answers
	
		Extensive mathematical appendix for at-a-glance easy reference


	This book has been adopted as a textbook at the following universities:

	
		American University
	
		Bentley College
	
		Brandeis University
	
		Brigham Young University
	
		California Lutheran University
	
		California State University - Sacramento
	
		Cardiff University
	
		Carleton University
	
		Colorado College
	
		Fordham University
	
		London Metropolitan University
	
		New York University
	
		Northeastern University
	
		Ohio University - Main Campus
	
		San Diego State University
	
		St. Cloud State University
	
		State University Of New York - Amherst Campus
	
		State University Of New York - Buffalo North Campus
	
		Temple University - Main
	
		Texas Tech University
	
		University of Alberta
	
		University Of Notre Dame
	
		University Of Ottawa
	
		University Of Pittsburgh
	
		University Of South Florida - Tampa
	
		University Of Tennessee
	
		University Of Texas At Dallas
	
		University Of Washington
	
		University of Western Ontario
	
		Wesleyan University
	
		Western Nevada Community College


	Michael Wickens is professor of economics at the University of York and at Cardiff Business School. He is the coeditor of Handbook of Applied Econometrics and was managing editor of the Economic Journal from 1996 to 2004. He is specialist adviser to the House of Lords on macroeconomics and a member of the Shadow Monetary Policy Committee.

Macroeconomic Theory: A Dynamic General Equilibrium Approach

Interpreting cointegrating vectors and common stochastic trends

In this paper, we examine the likely consequences for the sustainability of fiscal policy of pursuing goals that rely on restrictive ceilings on deficits and debt. We provide a formal theoretical framework for analyzing the sustainability of fiscal policy based on the government intertemporal budget constraint and derive conditions that determine whether a given fiscal stance is sustainable. This framework generalizes the existing literature in several important respects. We allow for time-varying interest rates, for the primary deficit to be endogenous, for a finite planning horizon suitable for medium-term policy making, for possible future policy shifts, we show how published forecasts can be used and we provide a measure of fiscal pressure. We then apply this analysis to the fiscal positions of the United States and the European Union countries since 1970 and to their planned positions over the next decade. We find that many countries do not have a sustainable policy. The evidence in favor of sustainability is strengthening for most countries when the data are extended to incorporate future fiscal consolidation plans, reflecting the general shift toward fiscal austerity in recent years. In contrast, with a finite horizon we show that the recent policy shift made the paths of future policies sustainable. However, imposing ceilings on debt or deficit-to-GDP ratio throws most economies onto an unsustainable path unless governments undertake a major tax or expenditure adjustment. High-debt countries can satisfy the 60 percent debt rule by 1999 only by raising (reducing) the average tax (spending) rate substantially for five years. A 3 percent plan 1999 or a zero-deficit plan by the year 2002, puts an increasingly high pressure on most economies, including the United States, requiring a gradual rise (decline) in the tax (spending) rate.

/pdf/debt-and-deficit-ceilings-and-sustainability-of-fiscal-1qrdnv5kvg.pdf

Debt and Deficit Ceilings, and Sustainability of Fiscal Policies: an Intertemporal Analysis

Contrary to the predictions of the rational expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates, empirical evidence suggests that the term spread between long and short rates fails to forecast future movements of long-term rates although its forecasts of future short-term rates are in the correct direction. In this paper, the authors show that this puzzling behavior of the term spread alone can be explained by a time-varying term premium that is correlated with the term spread. Once this is accounted for, neither expression of the expectations hypothesis is against the predictions of the theory. Copyright 1997 by Ohio State University Press.

https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdfplus/2953700.pdf

Michael R. Wickens

Papers

Dynamic Specification, the Long-Run and The Estimation of Transformed Regression Models

Macroeconomic Theory: A Dynamic General Equilibrium Approach

Interpreting cointegrating vectors and common stochastic trends

Debt and Deficit Ceilings, and Sustainability of Fiscal Policies: an Intertemporal Analysis

Explaining the Failures of the Term Spread Models of the Rational Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure