Present and future arboviral threats.

Dengue is a spectrum of disease caused by four serotypes of the most prevalent arthropod-borne virus affecting humans today, and its incidence has increased dramatically in the past 50 years. Due in part to population growth and uncontrolled urbanization in tropical and subtropical countries, breeding sites for the mosquitoes that transmit dengue virus have proliferated, and successful vector control has proven problematic. Dengue viruses have evolved rapidly as they have spread worldwide, and genotypes associated with increased virulence have expanded from South and Southeast Asia into the Pacific and the Americas. This review explores the human, mosquito, and viral factors that contribute to the global spread and persistence of dengue, as well as the interaction between the three spheres, in the context of ecological and climate changes. What is known, as well as gaps in knowledge, is emphasized in light of future prospects for control and prevention of this pandemic disease.

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Global spread and persistence of dengue.

The dramatic global expansion of Aedes albopictus in the last three decades has increased public health concern because it is a potential vector of numerous arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses), including the most prevalent arboviral pathogen of humans, dengue virus (DENV). Ae. aegypti is considered the primary DENV vector and has repeatedly been incriminated as a driving force in dengue's worldwide emergence. What remains unresolved is the extent to which Ae. albopictus contributes to DENV transmission and whether an improved understanding of its vector status would enhance dengue surveillance and prevention. To assess the relative public health importance of Ae. albopictus for dengue, we carried out two complementary analyses. We reviewed its role in past dengue epidemics and compared its DENV vector competence with that of Ae. aegypti. Observations from “natural experiments” indicate that, despite seemingly favorable conditions, places where Ae. albopictus predominates over Ae. aegypti have never experienced a typical explosive dengue epidemic with severe cases of the disease. Results from a meta-analysis of experimental laboratory studies reveal that although Ae. albopictus is overall more susceptible to DENV midgut infection, rates of virus dissemination from the midgut to other tissues are significantly lower in Ae. albopictus than in Ae. aegypti. For both indices of vector competence, a few generations of mosquito colonization appear to result in a relative increase of Ae. albopictus susceptibility, which may have been a confounding factor in the literature. Our results lead to the conclusion that Ae. albopictus plays a relatively minor role compared to Ae. aegypti in DENV transmission, at least in part due to differences in host preferences and reduced vector competence. Recent examples of rapid arboviral adaptation to alternative mosquito vectors, however, call for cautious extrapolation of our conclusion. Vector status is a dynamic process that in the future could change in epidemiologically important ways.

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Consequences of the expanding global distribution of Aedes albopictus for dengue virus transmission.

The number of cases of severe dengue disease continues to grow in endemic areas of southeast Asia, Central and South America, and other subtropical regions. Children bear the greatest burden of disease, and the development of an effective vaccine remains a global public health priority. A tetravalent vaccine is urgently needed and must be effective against all four dengue virus serotypes, be cost-effective and provide long-term protection. In this Review we discuss the unique immunological concerns in dengue virus vaccine development and the current prospects for the development of an acceptable vaccine, a goal that is likely to be reached in the near future.

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Prospects for a dengue virus vaccine.

There has been growing interest in Europe in recent years in the establishment and spread of invasive mosquitoes, notably the incursion of Aedes albopictus through the international trade in used tires and lucky bamboo, with onward spread within Europe through ground transport. More recently, five other non-European aedine mosquito species have been found in Europe, and in some cases populations have established locally and are spreading. Concerns have been raised about the involvement of these mosquito species in transmission cycles of pathogens of public health importance, and these concerns were borne out following the outbreak of chikungunya fever in Italy in 2007, and subsequent autochthonous cases of dengue fever in France and Croatia in 2010. This article reviews current understanding of all exotic (five introduced invasive and one intercepted) aedine species in Europe, highlighting the known import pathways, biotic and abiotic constraints for establishment, control strategies, and public health significance, and encourages Europe-wide surveillance for invasive mosquitoes.

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A review of the invasive mosquitoes in Europe: ecology, public health risks, and control options.

Autochthonous dengue infections were last reported in Hawaii in 1944. In September 2001, the Hawaii Department of Health was notified of an unusual febrile illness in a resident with no travel history; dengue fever was confirmed. During the investigation, 1,644 persons with locally acquired denguelike illness were evaluated, and 122 (7%) laboratory-positive dengue infections were identified; dengue virus serotype 1 was isolated from 15 patients. No cases of dengue hemorrhagic fever or shock syndrome were reported. In 3 instances autochthonous infections were linked to a person who reported denguelike illness after travel to French Polynesia. Phylogenetic analyses showed the Hawaiian isolates were closely associated with contemporaneous isolates from Tahiti. Aedes albopictus was present in all communities surveyed on Oahu, Maui, Molokai, and Kauai; no Ae. aegypti were found. This outbreak underscores the importance of maintaining surveillance and control of potential disease vectors even in the absence of an imminent disease threat.

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Dengue fever, Hawaii, 2001-2002.

Autochthonous dengue virus transmission, last identified in the state of Hawaii in 1945, was detected again in 2001. A seroepidemiological survey in a high-incidence community (Nahiku) and a nearby low-incidence community (Hana Subdivision) was implemented. The two communities studied differed in median household size (two vs. four persons), median lot size (2.8 vs. 0.8acres), proportion of households with mosquito larvae (81 vs. 28%) and incidence of recent infection (39% [28/72] vs. 1% [1/131]). The average number of reported anti-mosquito actions by residents of both locations remained low, and approximately 50% (42/80) of the inspected houses had larvae, evidencing the need for more effective community mosquito control. Logistic regression analysis of risk factors for infection in Nahiku identified residing in properties with birds in the house or yard as significantly associated with infection (odds ratio 7.0, 95% CI 1.7-28.5), probably as an indicator of unspecified environmental characteristics that were attractive to the vector. We documented that nearly 40% of Nahiku residents had acquired dengue locally in 2001 and that undetected dengue outbreaks had occurred in Hawaii. Our data suggest that ecological characteristics may help Hawaii health officials identify communities at increased risk of dengue infection.

http://planet.uwc.ac.za/nisl/Gwen's%20Files/GeoCourse/Climate%20Change/Verification/P%20Reiter/Doubtful%20Use/DengueReiter.pdf

Mike Napier

Papers

Dengue fever, Hawaii, 2001-2002.

Risk factors for infection during a dengue-1 outbreak in Maui, Hawaii, 2001