Projecting the burden of thyroid cancer (TC) over time provides essential information to effectively plan measures for its management and prevention. This research obtained data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study from between 1990 and 2019 to model how TC will affect China until 2039 by conducting the Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis. The number of new TC cases in China was 10,030 in 1990, 39,080 in 2019, and is projected to be 47,820 in 2039. This corresponds to 3,320, 7,240, and 4,160 deaths, respectively. Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) cases increased from 103,490 in 1990 to 187,320 in 2019. The age-standardized rate (ASR) of incidence increased from 1.01 to 2.05 during 1990-2019 and was projected to increase to 3.37 per 100,000 person-years until 2039. The ASR of mortality (ASMR) remained stable during the study period and was projected to have a mild decline from 0.39 to 0.29/100,000 during 2020-2039. Although the ASMR in male patients has maintained increasing at a rate of 2.2% per year over the past 30 years, it is expected to decline at a rate of 1.07% per year in 2019-2039. The most significant increase in crude incidence occurred in people aged 45-65 from 1990 to 2019, however, this will shift into young people aged 10-24 from 2020 to 2039. In addition, the proportion of deaths and DALYs caused by obesity increased from 1990 to 2019 and affected men more than women. In conclusion, a substantial increase in counts of incidence of TC in China is projected over the next two decades, combined with the slightly declining mortality, indicating that rational health policies are needed in the future to cope with the increasing number of TC patients, especially among males and adolescents.

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Burden of Thyroid Cancer From 1990 to 2019 and Projections of Incidence and Mortality Until 2039 in China: Findings From Global Burden of Disease Study.

Background The preoperative distinguishment of lymph nodes with reactive hyperplasia or tumor metastasis plays a pivotal role in guiding the surgical extension for papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) with Hashimoto's thyroiditis (HT), especially in terms of the central lymph node (CLN) dissection. We aim to identify the preparative risk factors for CLN metastasis in PTC patients concurrent with HT. Materials and methods We retrospectively reviewed and analyzed the data including the basic information, preoperative sonographic characteristics, and thyroid function of consecutive PTC patients with HT in our medical center between Jan 2019 and Apr 2021. The Chi-square and Fisher's exact tests were used for comparison of qualitative variables among patients with or without CLN metastasis. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to determine the risk factors for CLN metastasis. The nomogram was constructed and further evaluated by two cohorts produced by 1,000 resampling bootstrap analysis. Results A total of 98 in 214 (45.8%) PTC patients were identified with CLN metastasis. In multivariate analysis, four variables including high serum thyroglobulin antibody (TgAb) level (>1,150 IU/ml), lower tumor location, irregular margin of CLN, and micro-calcification in the CLN were determined to be significantly associated with the CLN metastasis in PTC patients with HT. An individualized nomogram was consequently established with a favorable C-index of 0.815 and verified via two internal validation cohorts. Conclusions Our results indicated that preoperatively sonographic characteristics of the tumor and lymph node condition combined with serum TgAb level can significantly predict the CLN in PTC patients with HT and the novel nomogram may further help surgeons to manage the CLN in this subpopulation.

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Preoperatively Predicting the Central Lymph Node Metastasis for Papillary Thyroid Cancer Patients With Hashimoto's Thyroiditis.

Papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC) frequently presents a favorable clinical outcome, while aggressive invasiveness can also be found in some of this population. Identifying the risk clinical factors of high-volume (> 5) central lymph node metastasis (CLNM) in PTMC patients could help oncologists make a better-individualized clinical decision. We retrospectively reviewed the clinical characteristics of adult patients with PTC in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database between Jan 2010 and Dec 2015 and in one medical center affiliated to Chongqing Medical University between Jan 2018 and Oct 2020. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to determine the risk factors for high volume of CLNM in PTMC patients. The male gender (OR = 2.02, 95% CI 1.46–2.81), larger tumor size (> 5 mm, OR = 1.64, 95% CI 1.13–2.38), multifocality (OR = 1.87, 95% CI 1.40–2.51), and extrathyroidal invasion (OR = 3.67; 95% CI 2.64–5.10) were independent risk factors in promoting high-volume of CLNM in PTMC patients. By contrast, elderly age (≥ 55 years) at diagnosis (OR = 0.57, 95% CI 0.40–0.81) and PTMC-follicular variate (OR = 0.60, 95% CI 0.42–0.87) were determined as the protective factors. Based on these indicators, a nomogram was further constructed with a good concordance index (C-index) of 0.702, supported by an external validating cohort with a promising C-index of 0.811. A nomogram was successfully established and validated with six clinical indicators. This model could help surgeons to make a better-individualized clinical decision on the management of PTMC patients, especially in terms of whether prophylactic central lymph node dissection and postoperative radiotherapy should be warranted.

Development and validation of an individualized nomogram for predicting the high-volume (> 5) central lymph node metastasis in papillary thyroid microcarcinoma.

Background To investigate the burden of thyroid cancer and its attributable risk factors in 204 countries and territories during 30 years. Methods We extracted data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 database, including incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and the attributable risk factors of thyroid cancer from 1990 to 2019. Estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC) were calculated to assess the changes in age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), and age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDR). We also examined the associations between cancer burden and the sociodemographic index (SDI). Results The global new cases, death, and DALYs of thyroid cancer in 2019 were 233 847 (95% UI: 211 637-252 807), 45 576 (95% UI: 41 290-48 775), and 1 231 841 (95% UI: 1 113 585-1 327 064), respectively. From 1990 to 2019, the ASIR of thyroid cancer showed an upward trend (EAPC = 1.25), but ASMR (EAPC = -0.15) and ASDR (EAPC = -0.14) decreased. The burden of thyroid cancer varied at regional and national levels, but the association between ASIR and SDI was positive. We found that the burden of thyroid cancer was mainly concentrated in females and that the age of onset tended to be younger. The proportion of DALYs from thyroid cancer attributable to high body-mass index was higher in high SDI regions, especially in males. Conclusions The global incidence of thyroid cancer has continued to increase in the past three decades. The high body-mass index as an important risk factor for thyroid cancer deserves greater attention, especially in high SDI regions.

Global burden of thyroid cancer and its attributable risk factors in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019.

CD4+ T cells play an essential role in orchestrating adequate immunity, but their overactivity has been associated with the development of immune-mediated inflammatory diseases, including liver inflammatory diseases. These cells can be subclassified according to their maturation stage, cytokine profile, and pro or anti-inflammatory functions, i.e., functional heterogeneity. In this review, we summarize what has been discovered so far regarding the role of the different CD4+ T cell polarization states in the progression of two prominent and still different liver inflammatory diseases: non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) and autoimmune hepatitis (AIH). Finally, the potential of CD4+ T cells as a therapeutic target in both NASH and AIH is discussed.

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Functional heterogeneity of CD4+ T cells in liver inflammation.

Background Thyroid cancer is a growing threat to human health. Few studies have explored trends of thyroid cancer and relationships with social development factors. In this study, we explored the trend and relationship based on GBD. Methods By using GBD study, we obtained detailed data of thyroid cancer. Incidence, mortality and DALY were used to assess epidemiological characteristics. ASR and EAPC were used to estimate the trend. Results Globally, the incidence significantly increased from 1990 to 2017, especially in high-income regions. Males and middle SDI region demonstrated a higher increase of age-standardized incidence rates. Unlike incidence trend, mortality trend showed a minor increase, and even showed a decreasing trend in some regions such as Eastern Sub-Saharan Africa. Additionally, the DALY trend also demonstrated a slightly increase with an EAPC of 0.77 (95% CI 0.73-0.81). More significant increase of DALY was found in males, middle SDI region and high-income Asia Pacific. The incidence of thyroid cancer peaked in middle-aged people, while the mortality and DALY peaked in elder-aged. Moreover, the proportion of thyroid cancer deaths contributable to high BMI was highest in developed countries and middle-aged people. Conclusions Thyroid cancer is a public health problem worldwide. Over-diagnosis might be partly responsible for its rising trend. It remains us to revise the guidelines to avoid unnecessary burdens. Moreover, we should pay attention to the risk factors of thyroid cancer. More targeted measures should be formulated to improve potential environmental and lifestyle-related factors which might contribute to rising trend of thyroid cancer.

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/cam4.3970

The global burden of thyroid cancer and its attributable risk factor in 195 countries and territories: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study

Nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) has rapidly become the most common cause of chronic liver diseases. We aimed to explore the incidence and distribution characteristics of NASH by sex, region and sociodemographic index (SDI). We collected data, including sex and region, on NASH-related liver cirrhosis from the 2017 GBD study. The age-standardized incidence rates (ASRs) and estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) were used to estimate the incidence trend and distribution characteristics. Globally, the incidence of liver cirrhosis caused by NASH increased from 178,430 cases in 1990 to 367,780 cases in 2017, an increase of approximately 105.56%. The ASR of NASH increased by an average of 1.35% per year (95% CI 1.28-1.42). Meanwhile, large differences in the ASR and the EAPC were observed across regions. The middle-high SDI region had the highest increase among all five SDI regions, followed by middle SDI region. In addition, Eastern Europe, Andean Latin America and Central Asia showed a more significant growth trend of ASR. In contrast, the high SDI region demonstrated the slowest increasing trend of ASR, and the high-income Asia Pacific demonstrated a decreasing trend among the 21 regions. Liver cirrhosis has caused a huge and rising health burden in many countries and regions. In addition, with the growth of obesity, population and aging, NASH might replace viral hepatitis as the most important cause of liver cirrhosis in the near future. Therefore, appropriate interventions are needed in coming decades to realize early diagnosis and prevention of NASH-related liver cirrhosis.

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The incidence trends of liver cirrhosis caused by nonalcoholic steatohepatitis via the GBD study 2017

Fei Ye Second Xiangya Hospital Mimi Zhai Central South University Xiangya School of Medicine Jianhai Long Beijing Tiantan Hospital Bo Shu Second Xiangya Hospital Chun Liu Second Xiangya Hospital Yi Gong Second Xiangya Hospital Li Li Second Xiangya Hospital Dan Zhang Second Xiangya Hospital Chao He Second Xiangya Hospital Sushun Liu (  surun9566@csu.edu.cn ) the second xiangya hospital https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7516-4515

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Mimi Zhai

Papers

The global burden of thyroid cancer and its attributable risk factor in 195 countries and territories: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study

The incidence trends of liver cirrhosis caused by nonalcoholic steatohepatitis via the GBD study 2017

The Burden of Liver Cirrhosis in Mortality: Results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Intra-platelet serotonin and YAP contributed to poor prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma.