Two interpretations have been advanced to account for persistent German current account surpluses that translate into equally persistent deficits of countries in the European periphery. According to the first, the German surplus is the expression of a 'virtuous' savings behaviour, to be extended to the periphery. The second maintains that the increase in net exports reflects the stagnation of German domestic demand. The paper argues that differences in price competitiveness are only part of the explanation of the disequilibria and that an expansion of German internal demand, albeit necessary, would not suffice to provide a viable response to the long-term sustainability of the euro area. Adopting a multilevel perspective, the paper argues that to understand the persistence of deficits in the European periphery, the main features of the reorganisation of the German economic system, including its income redistribution and demand implications, should be considered. Three elements are singled out: the effects of eastward enlargement, the impoverishment of the productive matrix of peripheral countries and the quality composition of trade flows. This analysis, it is argued, is a crucial premise for devising trade and industrial policies targeted on redressing the increasing skewness of EU trade, especially through greater trade among the deficit countries. Copyright , Oxford University Press.

/pdf/economic-relations-between-germany-and-southern-europe-2pa1hv4ooe.pdf

Economic relations between Germany and southern Europe

Thirlwall's hypothesis of balance of payments constrained growth has been widely tested for developed countries, but much less for developing countries. Further, previous tests have used dated estimates derived using non-robust econometric techniques. After discussing the conditions under which Thirlwall's hypothesis would be valid and the econometric issues involved, this study reports error correction estimates of import and export demand functions for a large sample of developing countries. Deriving the long run income elasticities of demand from these functions, the study reports tests for different specifications of Thirlwall's hypothesis on this sample and finds some support for it.

Balance of payments constrained growth and developing countries: an examination of Thirlwall’s hypothesis

http://publi.cerdi.org/ed/2001/2001.08.pdf

Does comparative advantage explains export patterns in China

Acknowledgments Introduction Part I. Business Groups and Economic Organization: 1. The problem of economic organization 2. Interpreting business groups in South Korea and Taiwan 3. A model of business groups: the interaction of authority and market power in the context of competitive economic activity 4. Economic organization in South Korea and Taiwan: a first test of the model Part II. Emergence and Divergence of the Economies: 5. The origins of capitalist economic organization 6. The rise of intermediary demand: a reassessment of the 'Asian miracle' 7. Global matching, demand responsiveness, and the emergence of divergent economies 8. Trade performance of South Korea and Taiwan: a second test of the model Conclusions Appendix A. Mathematical model of business groups Appendix B. Examples of differential pricing practices of Korean groups Appendix C. Hypothesis tests of the model Appendix D. The role of debt in the Korean financial crisis, 1997 References Index.

Emergent Economies, Divergent Paths: Economic Organization and International Trade in South Korea and Taiwan

Reviewing Composite Vulnerability and Resilience Indexes: A Sustainable Approach and Application

The four Pacific Basin countries of Taiwan, South Korea, Hong Kong, and Singapore, have each defied the vicious circle of poverty in the post-war years, emerging as dynamic and rapidly growing economies. This book provides a comprehensive analysis of the economic factors that led to the 'miracle'. The authors combine a wide-ranging empirical body of data with a broad theoretical approach to its analysis. They reach conclusions that can serve as a guide to likely future developments. The book makes an original contribution by describing international trade data that relates to the evaluation of the extraordinary success of these four countries.

Trade, the engine of growth in East Asia

In the September I98I issue of this JOURNAL, Richard Pomfret examines the similarity of non-oil, non-manufactured exports to the EEC from the three recent or prospective entrants (Spain, Greece and Portugal hereafter 'the Three') and from eleven other non-member Mediterranean countries., The technique used by Pomfret is an application of the newly articulated Similarity Index (S)2 and is of interest for its practical application in many areas of trade and trade-policy analysis. As the EEC (or any customs union) expands, for example, its potential for trade diversion expands accordingly. Until recently, economic analysis tended to focus on associated costs from the common market's perspective, rarely identifying the specific non-members principally affected or likely to be affected by the changed scope of the customs union. The Similarity Index lends itself well to precisely such expanded analysis. Because of the potentially wide applicability inherent in this technique, it is important to examine two questions, the answers to which may critically affect the usefulness of the technique. These are: How stable are the similarity ratios over time? How stable are the similarity indices and the associated country rankings at various levels of commodity aggregations?

The Export Similarity Index: Some Structural Tests

East Asian NIC manufactured intra-industry trade 1965–1990

This paper examines and resolves a puzzling issue associated with less developed country (LDC) exportcompositions.Sincethenewlyindustrializedcountry(NIC)takeoffduringtheearly1970s,LDCexportshaveinvolved an increasingly broader and diversiﬁed export base. Yet trade theories, both “old” that focus onclassic comparative advantage, and “new” which rely on scale economies, lead to expectations of growingspecialization as a concomitant of LDC takeoff.This study examines periods of rapid growth and structuraltransformationoftradeforarepresentativegroupofLDCscoveringawidegeographicandtemporalsample. 1. Introduction Economic Development literature generally agrees that increasing export diversiﬁca-tion is a concomitant to economic development.An accepted explanation for Africa’sexport stagnation in recent decades is its dependence on mono-culture,and on a singleor small number of commodities.The fact that African countries lag behind other lessdeveloped countries (LDCs) is often explained by its

Mitchell H. Kellman

Papers

Trade, the engine of growth in East Asia

The Export Similarity Index: Some Structural Tests

East Asian NIC manufactured intra-industry trade 1965–1990

Diversification and Specialization Paradox in Developing Country Trade

Import vulnerability of defense-related industries: An empirical model