Model-based phylodynamic approaches recently employed generalized linear models (GLMs) to uncover potential predictors of viral spread. Very recently some of these models have allowed both the predictors and their coefficients to be time-dependent. However, these studies mainly focused on predictors that are assumed to be constant through time. Here we inferred the phylodynamics of avian influenza A virus H9N2 isolated in 12 Asian countries and regions under both discrete trait analysis (DTA) and structured coalescent (MASCOT) approaches. Using MASCOT we applied a new time-dependent GLM to uncover the underlying factors behind H9N2 spread. We curated a rich set of time-series predictors including annual international live poultry trade and national poultry production figures. This time-dependent phylodynamic prediction model was compared to commonly employed time-independent alternatives. Additionally the time-dependent MASCOT model allowed for the estimation of viral effective sub-population sizes and their changes through time, and these effective population dynamics within each country were predicted by a GLM. International annual poultry trade is a strongly supported predictor of virus migration rates. There was also strong support for geographic proximity as a predictor of migration rate in all GLMs investigated. In time-dependent MASCOT models, national poultry production was also identified as a predictor of virus genetic diversity through time and this signal was obvious in mainland China. Our application of a recently introduced time-dependent GLM predictors integrated rich time-series data in Bayesian phylodynamic prediction. We demonstrated the contribution of poultry trade and geographic proximity (potentially unheralded wild bird movements) to avian influenza spread in Asia. To gain a better understanding of the drivers of H9N2 spread, we suggest increased surveillance of the H9N2 virus in countries that are currently under-sampled as well as in wild bird populations in the most affected countries.

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Bayesian phylodynamics of avian influenza A virus H9N2 in Asia with time-dependent predictors of migration.

Reverse transcription recombinase-aided amplification assay combined with a lateral flow dipstick for detection of avian infectious bronchitis virus

Newcastle disease (ND), caused by virulent Avian avulavirus 1 (AAvV 1), affects a wide range of avian species worldwide. Recently, several AAvVs of diverse genotypes have emerged with varying genomic and residue substitutions, and subsequent clinical impact on susceptible avian species. We assessed the clinico-pathological influence of two different AAvV 1 pathotypes [wild bird originated-velogenic strain (sub-genotype VIIi, MF437287) and feral pigeon originated-mesogenic strain (sub-genotype VIm, KU885949)] in commercial broiler chickens and pigeons. The velogenic strain caused 100% mortality in both avian species while the mesogenic strain caused 0% and 30% mortality in chickens and pigeons, respectively. Both strains showed tissue tropism for multiple tissues including visceral organs; however, minor variances were observed according to host and pathotype. The observed gross and microscopic lesions were typical of AAvV 1 infection. Utilizing oropharyngeal and cloacal swabs, a comparable pattern of viral shedding was observed for both strains from each of the infected individuals of both avian species. The study concludes a varying susceptibility of chickens and pigeons to different wild bird-originated AAvV 1 pathotypes and, therefore, suggests continuous monitoring and surveillance of currently prevailing strains for effective control of the disease worldwide, particularly in disease-endemic countries.

Comparative clinico-pathological assessment of velogenic (sub-genotype VIIi) and mesogenic (sub-genotype VIm) Avian avulavirus 1 in chickens and pigeons

Based on our previous work, it was discovered that some Newcastle disease virus (NDV) isolates from backyard poultry between 2011 and 2013 in Iran formed a new separate cluster when phylogenetic analysis based on the complete F gene sequence was carried out. The novel cluster was designated subgenotype VII(L) and published. In the current study, for further validation, we initiated a comprehensive epidemiological study to identify the dominant NDV genotype(s) circulating within the country. Collection of samples was executed between October 2017 and February 2018 from 108 commercial broiler farms which reported clinical signs of respiratory disease in their broilers. We report that 38 of the farms (> 35%) tested positive for NDV. The complete F gene sequences of seven of the isolates are shown as representative sequences in this study. According to the phylogenetic tree constructed, the recent broiler farm isolates clustered into the newly designated cluster VII(L) together with the older Iranian backyard poultry isolates in our previous work. All the sequences shared the same virulence-associated F cleavage site of 112RRQKR↓F117. Our phylogenetic analysis suggested that the NDV subgenotype VII(L) may have been derived from subgenotype VIId, and contrary to popular belief, subgenotype VIId may not be the dominant subgenotype in Iran. Tracking of the subgenotype on BLAST suggested that the NDV subgenotype VII(L), although previously unidentified, may have been circulating in this region as an endemic virus for at least a decade. Other NDV genotypes, however, have also been reported in Iran in recent years. Hence, ongoing study is aimed at determining the exact dominant NDV genotypes and subgenotypes in the country. This will be crucial in effective mitigation of outbreaks in Iranian broiler farms.

NDV subgenotype VII(L) is currently circulating in commercial broiler farms of Iran, 2017–2018

Newcastle disease (ND) is an OIE listed viral infection that has spread throughout developed and underdeveloped countries, either as an endemic or epizootic disease. ND has been endemic in several ...

Implementation of high-level biosecurity measures can reduce the baseline antibody titers of Newcastle disease in non-integrated layer flocks in northeast Iran

In this study, the prevalence and spatial distribution of Newcastle disease, infectious bronchitis, and avian influenza have been evaluated in commercial broiler farms in 31 provinces in Iran. In this survey, a total of 233 affected broiler chicken farms were sampled. The infectious bronchitis virus (alone) was detected with highest frequency in 60 farms, and separately or combined with other agents, in 110 farms; Newcastle disease virus, separately, was detected in 28 farms, and in 63 farms separately or combined with other infectious agents; and avian influenza H9N2 was detected in 22 farms separately and in 51 farms separately or concomitant with other infectious agents. The sample tested negative for all H5 serotypes. The results of the present study show that the most prevalent avian viral infectious disease contributing to respiratory syndromes in broiler farms in Iran was infectious bronchitis due to infectious bronchitis virus serotypes variant 2 and 793/B. On the other hand, combined with the alternation of dominant viruses and circulating strains, flocks are exposed to unremitting anamorphic viral infections. Thus, the permanent monitoring of cases that have occurred and the review of vaccination plans of affected flocks every year are some of the necessary measures needed for strategic control of respiratory syndrome in broilers. It is noteworthy that execution of epidemiologic examinations on the cogent factors of prevalence of this syndrome and defeat of vaccination strategy in the flocks is urgent and has to be fulfilled on the definite causes of time.

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Prevalence of avian influenza, Newcastle disease, and infectious bronchitis viruses in broiler flocks infected with multifactorial respiratory diseases in Iran, 2015-2016.

Avian influenza virus (AIV) H9N2 subtype is endemic in Iran and causes substantial economic loss to the growing poultry industry within the country. In this study, a cross-sectional analysis was carried out to determine the sero-prevalence of H9N2 in several commercial farms between the years 2014 and 2015. The comparison of the mean of serum titers and the ratio of sero-positive birds between all units were analyzed using one-way ANOVA test. In 2014, a total of 77 farms (58 turkey farms, 14 quail farms, and 5 partridge farms) and 894 birds (682 turkeys, 154 quails, and 58 partridges) were sampled while in 2015, a total of 69 farms (54 turkey farms, 8 quail farms, and 7 partridge farms) and 856 birds (675 turkeys, 105 quails, and 76 partridges) were sampled. Of that, 52 of 77 sampled farms (67.5%) and 437 of 894 samples (48.9%) were positive for H9N2 in 2014 while. Forty-one of 69 farms (59.4%) and 307 of 856 sera (35.9%) were positive in 2015. Furthermore, the mean titer of partridge farms was significantly lower than that of turkey farms (p   0.05). Our results indicated that H9N2 is circulating in these farms. Since many more such farms are being established for operations, in addition to the threat of emergence and continuous reemergence of the disease in these farms, enhanced veterinary biosecurity measures on farms are required for mitigation.

Mohammad Hosein Fallah Mehrabadi

Papers

Prevalence of avian influenza, Newcastle disease, and infectious bronchitis viruses in broiler flocks infected with multifactorial respiratory diseases in Iran, 2015-2016.

Prevalence of avian influenza (H9N2) in commercial quail, partridge, and turkey farms in Iran, 2014-2015.