Title of Document: WHEN COERCION BACKFIRES: THE LIMITS OF COERCIVE DIPLOMACY IN IRAN. Ebrahim Mohseni-Cheraghlou, Doctor of Philosophy, 2015 Directed By: Professor John D. Steinbruner School of Public Policy Coercive diplomacy is a deceivingly attractive strategy. If it can be made to work, it has the potential of achieving foreign policy objectives with considerably fewer costs. But when adopted in unconducive circumstances, the strategy has the potential to backfire and make peaceful resolution of conflicts more difficult. Since 2002, when the full scope of Iran’s nuclear program and ambitions were revealed to the public, the United States has primarily relied on coercive diplomacy to force Iran to accept limitations and oversight that go beyond the NPT and Iran’s safeguards agreement. This dissertation assesses how Iran’s nuclear policy and program has been affected by US and UNSC sanctions. It argues that not only has coercive diplomacy failed to persuade Iran to accept binding selective constraints on its fuel cycle activities, but it has also triggered a series of reactions that have strengthened Iran’s determination to advance, enhance, and expand its nuclear fuel cycle program. The findings of this dissertation corroborate the conclusions of most other scholars that have studied coercive diplomacy. Indeed, the recurrent failure of coercive diplomacy is rooted in the strategy’s neglect of the reality that national-level decisions are the resultant of the pulling and hauling of various forces within the target state and that in dealing with objectionable policies of states, one must seek to weaken the forces that promote and strengthen those that oppose the objectionable policy. In the case of Iran, sanctions have done the opposite. They have intensified Iranian distrust of the US and the post-war international order and have consequently augmented the forces in Iran that promote and have weakened those that oppose Iran’s nuclear fuel cycle program. Taking the factors that drive and shape Iran’s nuclear policy, this dissertation argues that the proliferation risks of Iran’s nuclear program could be resolved more quickly, reliably, and effectively through arrangements that are based on mutually acknowledged rights and equitable principles than through arrangements based on coercion. WHEN COERCION BACKFIRES: THE LIMITS OF COERCIVE DIPLOMACY IN IRAN

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When coercion backfires: the limits of coercive diplomacy in iran.

................................................................................................................. i ACKNOWLEDGEMENT ........................................................................................... iii TABLE OF CONTENTS ............................................................................................. v GLOSSARY ............................................................................................................. viii CHAPTER ONE : INTRODUCTION .......................................................................... 1 1. Background ....................................................................................................... 1 2. Literature Review .............................................................................................. 3 2.1. Foreign policy formation ............................................................................ 3 2.2. Religion and foreign policy ......................................................................... 8 2.3. Islam and foreign policy of Muslim states ................................................. 12 2.4. Islam in Indonesia’s foreign policy ........................................................... 19 3. Research methodology ..................................................................................... 23 3.1. Case selection ........................................................................................... 25 3.2. Data collection and analysis ...................................................................... 26 3.2.2. Primary and secondary written documents ................................................. 27 3.2.3. Interviews .................................................................................................. 27 4. Time limitation ............................................................................................... 28 5. Thesis structure ............................................................................................... 28 CHAPTER TWO : ISLAM AND INDONESIAN DOMESTIC POLITICS ................ 31

The role of Islam in Indonesia's contemporary foreign policy

ASSESSING THE ROLE OF THE ISLAMIC REVOLUTIONARY GUARDS CORPS’ EXTRATERRITORIAL ACTIVITIES IN ATTAINING IRAN’S FOREIGN POLICY GOALS Hamza Demirel Old Dominion University, 2016 Director: Dr. Regina C. Karp This dissertation aims at analyzing the role of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps’ (IRGC) extraterritorial activities in attaining Iran’s foreign policy goals. Based on observations and assessments from internal and external determinants, Iran’s foreign policy goals are defined as follows: regime survival, which is an indispensable goal of Iranian foreign policy, is above everything; state security and survival; projecting power and becoming the dominant power in the region. The regime has deliberately supported several armed non-state actors to achieve the aforementioned goals, and as seen in the case studies, the IRGC has served as a node in providing a broad range of state support. Although the IRGC has the characteristics of conventional armed forces, its extraterritorial activities contradict the legal frame of ‘use of military force’ and mostly fit the characteristics of ‘state sponsorship of terrorism.’ Moreover, these activities challenge international norms and provoke other regional actors. This condition creates an obstacle to Iran’s integration into the international system which is increasingly globalized and interconnected and an environment which is costly to live within and leaves it isolated. These attitudes paradoxically place Iran in a situation that challenges the goals of ‘state security and survival’ and ‘becoming the regional power’ in the long run. Thus, it is argued that the real reason behind the regime’s insistence on this strategy is preserving the current political system and the power of current ruling elites; in brief, it is labeled ‘regime survival’ in this study.

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Assessing the Role of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps’ Extraterritorial Activities in Attaining Iran’s Foreign Policy Goals

A Thesis Submitted To the School Of Humanities and Social Sciences in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements For The Award of the Masters of Arts Degree in International Relations

Iran’s Grand Strategy in the Middle East: A Case Study Of Yemen

: The threat environment of the 21st century consists of increasing numbers of advanced anti access/area denial (A2/AD) defense systems which place significant pressure on the current United States Air Force (USAF) bomber fleet. In a scenario with A2/AD systems, conventional USAF bombers will likely be relegated to a standoff role. The ability of the current bomber inventory to handle the challenges of stressing combat scenarios remains in question. This research seeks to address the issue of whether or not there is a capability gap given certain threat scenarios and how the Air Force could allocate resources to alleviate this potential capability gap. The primary aircraft alternatives considered are commercial-derivative and military cargo derivative arsenal aircraft. Demand for and effectiveness of arsenal aircraft alternatives are assessed through parametric and exploratory analysis. Costs are analyzed using multivariate regression analysis and cost analogies. These methods provide cost-effectiveness comparisons among a variety of USAF policy options. Meeting warfighting demands highlighted in this report would be well served by developing new types of cruise missiles and procuring them insufficient quantities. Improving weapon effectiveness will significantly decrease target demand by a factor of up to 5.6, varying by target set. If arsenal aircraft are procured to deliver these standoff weapons, the C-17 is the most cost-effective option due to avoidance of development costs, although there would be penalties incurred for reopening the production line. The B-1 andB-52 aircraft should be replaced early to eliminate high operating costs associated with the aging fleet. Using existing cargo aircraft (C-130, C-17, and C-5) for these missions as dual role aircraft yields minimal costs compared to procuring new aircraft.

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Improving Standoff Bombing Capacity in the Face of Anti-Access Area Denial Threats

The author, the Foreign Minister of Iran, offers opinions on international relations and his country's foreign relations. International relations are said to still be in transition following the end of the Cold War and its bipolar relations in the early 1990s. A state of increased interdependence between nations is said to have replaced domination of world politics by great powers, particularly the U.S., which is said to have been replaced by multilateralism as a means of problem solving and a reluctance to use military force. Iran is said to have the resources to be a valuable influence within the Middle East. It is argued that the crisis over Iran's nuclear energy program was artificially created by the U.S. and Israel and thus can be resolved through negotiation.

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