In this book, Andrew Harvey sets out to provide a unified and comprehensive theory of structural time series models. Unlike the traditional ARIMA models, structural time series models consist explicitly of unobserved components, such as trends and seasonals, which have a direct interpretation. As a result the model selection methodology associated with structural models is much closer to econometric methodology. The link with econometrics is made even closer by the natural way in which the models can be extended to include explanatory variables and to cope with multivariate time series. From the technical point of view, state space models and the Kalman filter play a key role in the statistical treatment of structural time series models. The book includes a detailed treatment of the Kalman filter. This technique was originally developed in control engineering, but is becoming increasingly important in fields such as economics and operations research. This book is concerned primarily with modelling economic and social time series, and with addressing the special problems which the treatment of such series poses. The properties of the models and the methodological techniques used to select them are illustrated with various applications. These range from the modellling of trends and cycles in US macroeconomic time series to to an evaluation of the effects of seat belt legislation in the UK.

Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter

The transition within business from a linear to a circular economy brings with it a range of practical challenges for companies. The following question is addressed: What are the product design and business model strategies for companies that want to move to a circular economy model? This paper develops a framework of strategies to guide designers and business strategists in the move from a linear to a circular economy. Building on Stahel, the terminology of slowing, closing, and narrowing resource loops is introduced. A list of product design strategies, business model strategies, and examples for key decision-makers in businesses is introduced, to facilitate the move to a circular economy. This framework also opens up a future research agenda for the circular economy.

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Product design and business model strategies for a circular economy

For over half a century, worldwide growth in affluence has continuously increased resource use and pollutant emissions far more rapidly than these have been reduced through better technology The affluent citizens of the world are responsible for most environmental impacts and are central to any future prospect of retreating to safer environmental conditions We summarise the evidence and present possible solution approaches Any transition towards sustainability can only be effective if far-reaching lifestyle changes complement technological advancements However, existing societies, economies and cultures incite consumption expansion and the structural imperative for growth in competitive market economies inhibits necessary societal change

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Scientists’ warning on affluence

Aerogel is a kind of synthetic porous material, in which the liquid component of the gel is replaced with a gas. Aerogel has specific acoustic properties and remarkably lower thermal conductivity (≈0.013 W/m K) than the other commercial insulating materials. It also has superior physical and chemical characteristics like the translucent structure. Therefore, it is considered as one of the most promising thermal insulating materials for building applications. Besides its applications in residential and industrial buildings, aerogel has a great deal of application areas such as spacecrafts, skyscrapers, automobiles, electronic devices, clothing etc. Although current cost of aerogel still remains higher compared to the conventional insulation materials, intensive efforts are made to reduce its manufacturing cost and hence enable it to become widespread all over the world. In this study, a comprehensive review on aerogel and its utilization in buildings are presented. Thermal insulation materials based on aerogel are illustrated with various applications. Economic analysis and future potential of aerogel are also considered in the study.

Toward aerogel based thermal superinsulation in buildings: A comprehensive review

Current anthropogenic climate change is the result of greenhouse gas accumulation in the atmosphere, which records the aggregation of billions of individual decisions. Here we consider a broad range of individual lifestyle choices and calculate their potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in developed countries, based on 148 scenarios from 39 sources. We recommend four widely applicable high-impact (i.e. low emissions) actions with the potential to contribute to systemic change and substantially reduce annual personal emissions: having one fewer child (an average for developed countries of 58.6 tonnes CO2-equivalent (tCO2e) emission reductions per year), living car-free (2.4 tCO2e saved per year), avoiding airplane travel (1.6 tCO2e saved per roundtrip transatlantic flight) and eating a plant-based diet (0.8 tCO2e saved per year). These actions have much greater potential to reduce emissions than commonly promoted strategies like comprehensive recycling (four times less effective than a plant-based diet) or changing household lightbulbs (eight times less). Though adolescents poised to establish lifelong patterns are an important target group for promoting high-impact actions, we find that ten high school science textbooks from Canada largely fail to mention these actions (they account for 4% of their recommended actions), instead focusing on incremental changes with much smaller potential emissions reductions. Government resources on climate change from the EU, USA, Canada, and Australia also focus recommendations on lower-impact actions. We conclude that there are opportunities to improve existing educational and communication structures to promote the most effective emission-reduction strategies and close this mitigation gap.

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aa7541/pdf

The climate mitigation gap: education and government recommendations miss the most effective individual actions

Households are expected to play a pivotal role in reducing the UKs carbon emissions, and the Government is targeting specific household actions as part of its plan to meet the legally binding targets set out in the Climate Change Act 2008. However, by focusing on discrete actions, the Government fails to take account the Rebound Effect  a phenomenon whereby carbon reductions estimated by simple engineering calculations are frequently not realised in practice. For example, installation of loft insulation will most certainly increase the thermal efficiency of homes. But this will free up money that otherwise would be spent by householders on energy bills: this money may then be spent on heating houses to higher temperatures, buying extra furniture, or, say, flying on vacations. Alternatively it may be put into household savings. All of these options give rise to carbon emissions, thus the total carbon saved may be less than predicted. Indeed, in some instances, emissions may even increase  this being known as Backfire. In this paper we estimate the extent of the Rebound Effect under a range of assumptions concerning consumer purchasing decisions, with varying prices, incomes, and savings levels. The paper concludes with a discussion of the policy implications of our findings and provides guidance on the conditions under which Rebound and Backfire can be minimised.

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Missing carbon reductions?: exploring rebound and backfire effects in uk households

Missing carbon reductions? Exploring rebound and backfire effects in UK households

Turning lights into flights: Estimating direct and indirect rebound effects for UK households

http://sro.sussex.ac.uk/49588/1/SorrellEE.pdf

Mona Chitnis

Papers

Missing carbon reductions?: exploring rebound and backfire effects in uk households

Missing carbon reductions? Exploring rebound and backfire effects in UK households

Turning lights into flights: Estimating direct and indirect rebound effects for UK households

Who rebounds most? Estimating direct and indirect rebound effects for different UK socioeconomic groups

Living up to expectations: Estimating direct and indirect rebound effects for UK households