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Turning lights into flights: Estimating direct and indirect rebound effects for UK households

TLDR
In this article, the authors estimate the combined direct and indirect rebound effects from seven measures that improve the energy efficiency of UK dwellings, based upon estimates of the income elasticity and greenhouse gas intensity of 16 categories of household goods and services.
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This article is published in Energy Policy.The article was published on 2013-04-01 and is currently open access. It has received 227 citations till now. The article focuses on the topics: Income elasticity of demand & Goods and services.

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Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors provide a unified and comprehensive theory of structural time series models, including a detailed treatment of the Kalman filter for modeling economic and social time series, and address the special problems which the treatment of such series poses.
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The climate mitigation gap: education and government recommendations miss the most effective individual actions

TL;DR: In this article, the authors consider a broad range of individual lifestyle choices and calculate their potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in developed countries, based on 148 scenarios from 39 sources, and recommend four widely applicable high-impact (i.e. low emissions) actions with the potential to contribute to systemic change and substantially reduce annual personal emissions: having one fewer child (an average for developed countries of 58.6 tonnes CO2-equivalent (tCO2e) emission reductions per year), living car-free (2.4 tCO 2e saved per year).
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Habitual behaviors or patterns of practice? Explaining and changing repetitive climate‐relevant actions

TL;DR: In this article, the authors examine how changes in habits are theorized and operationalized within both social psychological and social practice approaches, and the practical implications for promoting environmentally sustainable societies.
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Principles for a sustainable circular economy

TL;DR: In this article, the authors propose a value framework and set of ten principles for the design, implementation and evaluation of a sustainable circular economy, and conclude with a call for action for both practitioners and a research agenda for academia.
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Who rebounds most? Estimating direct and indirect rebound effects for different UK socioeconomic groups

TL;DR: In this article, the authors estimate the combined direct and indirect rebound effects from various types of energy efficiency improvement and behavioural change by UK households and explore how these effects vary with total expenditure.
References
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World Energy Outlook

M.W. Thring
Book

Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter

TL;DR: In this article, the Kalman filter and state space models were used for univariate structural time series models to estimate, predict, and smoothen the univariate time series model.
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An Almost Ideal Demand System

TL;DR: The Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) as mentioned in this paper is a first-order approximation of the Rotterdam and translog models, which has been used to test the homogeneity and symmetry restrictions of demand analysis.
Posted Content

Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors provide a unified and comprehensive theory of structural time series models, including a detailed treatment of the Kalman filter for modeling economic and social time series, and address the special problems which the treatment of such series poses.
Book

Economics and consumer behavior

TL;DR: Deaton and Muellbauer as mentioned in this paper introduced generations of students to the economic theory of consumer behaviour and used it in applied econometrics, including consumer index numbers, household characteristics, demand, and household welfare comparisons.
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Frequently Asked Questions (14)
Q1. What are the contributions mentioned in the paper "Turning lights into flights: estimating direct and indirect rebound effects for uk households" ?

In this paper, the authors estimate the magnitude of rebound effects following a number of energy efficiency improvements by UK households. 

The direct rebound effect represents the net result of the income and substitution effects for the relevant energy service, while the indirect rebound effect represents the net result of income and substitution effects for all the other goods and services purchased by the household - including other energy services. 

By making energy services cheaper, energy efficiency improvements increase the real income of households, thereby permitting increased consumption of all goods and services and increased ‘utility’ or consumer satisfaction. 

A transition to a low carbon generating system will increase the rebound effect (in GHG terms) from such measures and ultimately create the risk of backfire - with an increasing portion of these emissions occurring overseas. 

If consumption of energy services were to remain unchanged, there would be a corresponding reduction in household electricity and/or fuel use and the associated GHG emissions. 

The estimated rebound effect for energy efficient lighting is influenced by their modelling of the heat replacement effect (i.e. the increased use of heating fuels to compensate for the loss of heat from incandescent bulbs). 

For simplicity, the authors assume that households save a fixed fraction (r)5 of their disposable income each year:tt YrS ∆=∆ (11)The authors assume that the remainder is entirely distributed between expenditure on differentcategories of goods and services – including electricity and fuels. 

Since the CDEM cannot be used to simulate solar thermal heating, the authors use a variety of sources to estimate the potential energy savings from fitting solar thermal panels to the estimated 40% of UK households with south facing roofs (see Annex 2). 

the embodied and income effects will not reduce as much as the engineering effect because: first, electricity only accounts for a portion of the relevant emissions; second, at least 40% of embodied GHG emissions originate from countries outside the UK (including China), many of whom will much make slower progress than the UK in reducing the GHG intensity of their manufacturing industries (Druckman and Jackson, 2008); and third, rising electricity prices should increase the cost savings from efficiency improvements which in turn will increase the associated income effects. 

The former are derived from a combination of Environmentally-Extended Input-Output models and Life Cycle Analysis (LCA), while the latter are derived from the econometric analysis of survey data on household expenditure. 

These energy price increases will reduce real household incomes and expenditures and hence reduce both energy-related and total GHG emissions. 

In contrast, other transport is only one third as GHG intensive as vehicle fuels, but accounts for 26% of the estimated income effect owing to its large expenditure share (11.5%), and high income elasticity (0.5). 

30As indicated in Table 7, the authors estimate that an average English household consumed approximately 22.5MWh of electricity and fuels in 2009 at a total cost of ~£1100, of which 90% was consumption related (unit costs) and the remainder standing charges. 

Their methodology also neglects any responses on the production side of the economy, the net result of which could also be to increase economy wide rebound effects.