Showing papers by "Myron P. Gutmann published in 1988"

The Origin and Prevention of Major Wars: Domestic Politics and War

Abstract: Domestic Politics and War It is difficult to read both the theoretical literature in political science on the causes of war and historians' case studies of the origins of particular wars without being struck by the difference in their respective evaluations of the importance of domestic political factors. Whereas historians devote considerable attention to these variables, most political scientists minimize their importance. Domestic political variables are not included in any of the leading theories of the causes of war; instead, they appear only in a number of isolated hypotheses and in some empirical studies that are generally atheoretical and noncumulative. This gap is troubling and suggests that political scientists and historians who study war have learned little from each other. A greater recognition of the role of domestic factors by political scientists would increase the explanatory power of their theories and provide more useful conceptual frameworks for the historical analysis of individual wars. This study takes a first step toward bridging this gap by examining some of the disparate theoretical literature on domestic politics and war. It examines the relationship between national attributes and war behavior, the relative likelihood of democratic and non-democratic regimes going to war, Marxist and liberal theories regarding the impact of economic structure, the influence of nationalism and public opinion, and the scapegoat hypothesis. First, however, this article takes a closer look at the different treatment of domestic sources of war by political scientists and historians.

The Origin and Prevention of Major Wars: The Theory of Hegemonic War

Abstract: The Theory of Hegemonic War In the introduction to his history of the great war between the Spartans and the Athenians, Thucydides wrote that he was addressing "those inquirers who desire an exact knowledge of the past as an aid to the interpretation of the future, which in the course of human things must resemble if it does not reflect it. ... In fine, I have written my work, not as an essay which is to win the applause of the moment, but as a possession for all time."' Thucydides, assuming that the behavior and phenomena that he observed would repeat themselves throughout human history, intended to reveal the underlying and unalterable nature of what is today called international relations.

The Origin and Prevention of Major Wars: The Origins of the Thirty Years' War

Abstract: The Origins of the Thirty Years' War Among the major wars of modern European history, the Thirty Years' War stands out not only for its duration but also for its striking impact on the international system in which it took place. Before I618, the Spanish Habsburgs were the central power in a Europe where religious differences were crucial. The war and its Franco-Spanish extension ended in I659. By that time, France and other nations had increased their power, and religion played a much less important role in defining alliances. Moreover, Europe's center had moved east, as Russia, Prussia, and the Austrian Habsburgs became more powerful. The war's origins are well known. Conflict in the Holy Roman Empire, especially in the Habsburg lands, over religion and over the power of the emperor provoked a civil war in Bohemia in 1618. The Bohemian war both resurrected and created a network of alliances which caused the conflict to continue into

The Origin and Prevention of Major Wars: The Origins of World War II in Europe: British Deterrence Failure and German Expansionism

Abstract: The Origins of World War II in Europe: British Deterrence Failure and German Expansionism Explanations of the origins of World War II tend to emphasize either deliberate, if failed, choices or inexorable processes. The first view indicts Adolf Hitler's aggrandizing choices and preference for violence, and questions the judgment and strategy of the appeasers, personified, correctly or not, by Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain. The second view broadens the focus, pointing to secular changes in relative power between states; to the relation between states' commitments and their ability to uphold and protect them; and to domestic, economic, and cultural dynamics that individually, or in combination, predisposed the situation to conflict. Attention to both dimensions is necessary to appreciate Britain's strategy as the central axis of diplomacy and rivalry with Germany in the 1930s and to distill the "lessons" of the origins of the war.

Protoindustrialization and marriage ages in eastern Belgium.

Abstract: This article examines the relationship between nuptiality and industrial development in five parishes in eastern Belgium between the mid-seventeenth century and 1790. The first sections discuss the protoindustrialization hypothesis as established by Mendels and others and relate the industrial development of the Verviers region. The main sections of the article compare a series of mean marriage ages for women to various measures of economic conditions. The results show no significant relationship contradicting some parts of the hypothesis. Then the article attempts to replicate Mendelss analysis more closely by using annual changes in the number of marriages as a proxy for the crude marriage rate. While there were some relationships they were not as expected. The conclusions to the article call for reexamination of the protoindustrialization hypothesis because of the difficulty we have had replicating some parts of it. (SUMMARY IN FRE) (EXCERPT)