计量经济分析 = Econometric analysis

Confirmation bias, as the term is typically used in the psychological literature, connotes the seeking or interpreting of evidence in ways that are partial to existing beliefs, expectations, or a h...

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Confirmation Bias: A Ubiquitous Phenomenon in Many Guises:

Virtually all current theories of choice under risk or uncertainty are cognitive and consequentialist. They assume that people assess the desirability and likelihood of possible outcomes of choice alternatives and integrate this information through some type of expectation-based calculus to arrive at decision. The authors propose an alternative theoretical perspective, the risk-as-feelings hypothesis, that highlights the role of affect experienced at the moment of decision making. Drawing on research from clinical, physiological, and other subfield of psychology, they show that emotional reactions to risky situations often drive behavior. The risk-as-feelings hypothesis is shown to explain a wide range of phenomena that have resisted interpretation in cognitive-consequentialist terms.

Risk as Feelings

Early studies of intuitive judgment and decision making conducted with the late Amos Tversky are reviewed in the context of two related concepts: an analysis of accessibility, the ease with which thoughts come to mind; a distinction between effortless intuition and deliberate reasoning. Intuitive thoughts, like percepts, are highly accessible. Determinants and consequences of accessibility help explain the central results of prospect theory, framing effects, the heuristic process of attribute substitution, and the characteristic biases that result from the substitution of nonextensional for extensional attributes. Variations in the accessibility of rules explain the occasional corrections of intuitive judgments. The study of biases is compatible with a view of intuitive thinking and decision making as generally skilled and successful.

https://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/JudgementAndChoice.MappingBoundedRationality.DKahneman2003.pdf

A perspective on judgment and choice: Mapping bounded rationality.

People are capable of thinking about the future, the past, remote locations, another person's perspective, and counterfactual alternatives. Without denying the uniqueness of each process, it is proposed that they constitute different forms of traversing psychological distance. Psychological distance is egocentric: Its reference point is the self in the here and now, and the different ways in which an object might be removed from that point-in time, in space, in social distance, and in hypotheticality-constitute different distance dimensions. Transcending the self in the here and now entails mental construal, and the farther removed an object is from direct experience, the higher (more abstract) the level of construal of that object. Supporting this analysis, research shows (a) that the various distances are cognitively related to each other, (b) that they similarly influence and are influenced by level of mental construal, and (c) that they similarly affect prediction, preference, and action.

/pdf/construal-level-theory-of-psychological-distance-g5kjiydrew.pdf

Construal-Level Theory of Psychological Distance

Journal of behavioral decision making

The development and use of information technology (IT) have been thematic in recent literature. IT has been viewed as an enabler of internal and external firm collaboration, which is the foundation of supply chain management. Firm collaboration and information sharing, in turn, are expected to improve firm performance. A model of the relationship between firm IT capability, internal and external collaboration, and firm performance is proposed and tested, using empirical data. The findings show that firm IT capability directly impacts internal and external collaboration as well as firm performance. This finding has important implications for managers as they evaluate investment in information technologies.

Modeling the relationship between firm it capability, collaboration, and performance

An empirical study of the impact of e-business technologies on organizational collaboration and performance

Pattern of information technology use: The impact on buyer–suppler coordination and performance

The connectivity and communication requirements of leading supply chains have created the emergence of a more advanced role for third-party logistics providers 3PLs. They have evolved from providing logistics capabilities to becoming orchestrators of supply chains that create and sustain a competitive advantage. This article uses a theoretical perspective based on resource-based theory, network theory and transaction cost economics, and a thorough literature review, to develop a model with seven propositions. Finally, using structured interviews of industry executives from a leading 3PL, we offer empirical support for the model and propositions that can be used to define the orchestrator role of a 3PL.

Nada R. Sanders

Papers

Journal of behavioral decision making

Modeling the relationship between firm it capability, collaboration, and performance

An empirical study of the impact of e-business technologies on organizational collaboration and performance

Pattern of information technology use: The impact on buyer–suppler coordination and performance

The Emerging Role of the Third‐Party Logistics Provider (3PL) as an Orchestrator