世界経済・社会統計 = World development indicators

The Elusive Quest for Growth: Economists' Adventures and Misadventures in the Tropics. By William Easterly. Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press, 2001. Pp. xiii + 342. This is an important, controversial, unusual, and accessible book. It has already received a lot of public attention, and it is destined to be an influential and enduring contribution to the development economics literature. The book is important because there is arguably no topic more critical than understanding why so many of the world's poor remain poor, and why a fortunate few countries have "grown out of poverty" in the post-war period. William Easterly has worked for many years in the world's preeminent international development agency (like it or not, that is what the World Bank is). He has been one of the leading intellectual thinkers in the bank, and has published widely in the top economic journals. The book is controversial because it has hit the headlines, with major write-ups in the world's most influential newspapers, including the New York Times and the International Herald Tribune. It is written by a World Bank insider who is critical of donors' development efforts, moreover coming at a time when the bank itself is in a state of flux bordering at times on turmoil. The volume is accessible because it exhibits an all-too-rare capacity among economists to write with a wider audience in mind. The author demonstrates an uncanny knack in distilling complex theory and analytics for a general audience. Finally, it is unusual for features noted below, especially its structure and writing style. If the book has two key messages, they are that "people respond to incentives" and that "growth is good for the poor". These might appear awfully obvious to mainstream economists and to the general community in well-managed, fast-growing economies. But it is surprising how widely these messages have been ignored by governments in poor countries and by international development agencies. The book consists of fourteen chapters, all but the last followed by an "Intermezzo", and is organized into four sections. The first and last chapters and these Intermezzi portray the human dimensions of poverty in the Third World. The two substantive sections look at "Panaceas that Failed" and "People Respond to Incentives". The "panaceas" refer to theories and recipes for rapid growth, which in the author's view, have failed to live up to expectations. The first substantial chapter looks at the disappointing record of international development assistance. In aggregate, it is very difficult to discern a statistical relationship which demonstrates that aid has made a difference. Then Easterly switches to the micro, looking at Ghana, a country full of hope on the threshold of independence (and often likened to Malaysia), but whose per capita income is now little different from that of 1950. The author also attacks the "financing gap" literature, which became popular with the Harrod-Domar growth models, and later with the work of Rostow in the 1960s. This "gaps" literature had largely dropped out of academic discourse by 1980, but we are told here that it lived on in international agencies, and was employed to justify aid programmes. While the author's story in these two chapters is a largely negative one, it needs to be emphasized that in countries with sound economic policies -- that is, much of Southeast Asia until recently -- well-run aid programmes can make a difference. Perhaps more could have been made of this point. Continuing this demolition of an "inputs" approach to growth, Easterly revisits "Solow's Surprise: investment is not the key to growth". The proposition that investment alone is no guarantee of growth is, of course, widely accepted in the academic literature, but it, too, has apparently not percolated through some international financial institutions. There is also a useful, sceptical discussion in this chapter of the total factor productivity (TFP) literature, including a recounting of the astounding Young-Krugman allegation that Singapore recorded zero TFP growth for its first twenty years or so of independence. …

The Elusive Quest for Growth: Economists' Adventures and Misadventures in the Tropics

Climate change vulnerability, adaptation and risk perceptions at farm level in Punjab, Pakistan.

Cotton is the second largest crop of Pakistan in terms of area after wheat and is being suffered by multiple shocks over the time due to conventional agricultural management practices, climate change, and market failures. Climate Smart Agriculture (CSA) was introduced by the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) in 2010, as an innovative cleaner production alternative to conventional farming that aimed at increasing the efficiency of natural resources, resilience, and productivity of agricultural production system, while reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The adverse effects of climate change on cotton production at the farm and regional level can be minimized by using CSA practices and technologies. The present study investigated the financial performance and explored the impact of CSA through sustainable water use management on cotton production in Lower Bari Doab Canal (LBDC) irrigation system of Punjab, Pakistan by using Cobb-Douglas production function. The adopters of CSA in cotton cultivation were identified by conducting six focus group discussions. Data were collected through well-structured questionnaire from 133 adopters of CSA and 65 conventional cotton growers for the cropping season 2016–2017. It was found that water-smart (raising crops on bed, laser land levelling, conjunctive use of water and drainage management), energy-smart (minimum tillage), carbon-smart (less use of chemicals) and knowledge-smart (crop rotation and improved varieties i.e., tolerant to drought, flood and heat/cold stresses) practices and technologies of CSA were adopted by the cotton farmers in the study area. Most of the farmers were of the view that they are adopting CSA practices and technologies due to the limited supply of canal water, climate change, drought-prone, massive groundwater extraction, rapidly declining groundwater table and increasing soil salinity over the time. Results revealed that uniform germination, higher yield and financial returns, the concentration of inputs and increase in resource use efficiency are the main advantages of CSA. The econometric analysis showed that implementation of CSA practices and technologies as judicious use of water and fertilizer, groundwater quality, access to extension services, and appropriate method and time of picking have a significant impact on the gross value of cotton product (GVP). The findings of the study would be helpful for policy makers to formulate policies that can minimize farmer’s financial burden to adopt CSA technologies and implement for scaling out in Punjab and beyond.

Impact of Climate Smart Agriculture (CSA) Practices on Cotton Production and Livelihood of Farmers in Punjab, Pakistan

Agricultural advisory and financial services; farm level access, outreach and impact in a mixed cropping district of Punjab, Pakistan

Human capital plays pivotal role for sustainable economic
 Growth. As different growth theories suggest the role of human capital
 as a significant for growth process. The concept of human capital in
 economic literature defined broadly by including education, health,
 training, migration, and other investments that enhance an individual’s
 productivity. However, the growth economists that have incorporated
 human capital in the growth studies, paid greater attention on analysing
 the impact of education on economic growth, while ignoring the role of
 health human capital. It is only in very recent times that studies have
 started looking at health and tried to estimate the relationship between
 health status and economic growth. There exists a two-way relationship
 between improved health and economic growth. Health and other forms of
 human and physical capital increases the per capita GDP by increasing
 productivity of existing resources coupled with resource accumulation
 and technical change. Furthermore, some part of this increased income is
 spent on investment in human capital, which results in further per
 capita growth. According to Fogel (1994), approximately one third of GDP
 of Britain between 1790 and 1980 is the outcome of improvements in
 health especially improvement in nutrition, public health, and medical
 care facilities and these improved health facilities should be
 considered as labour enhancing technical change.

http://thepdr.pk/pdr/index.php/pdr/article/download/2282/2282

The Long Term Impact of Health on Economic Growth in Pakistan

Over the years Pakistan has failed to collect enough revenues
 for financing of its budget. Consequently, the problem of twin deficits
 emerged and to finance the developmental activities government has to
 rely on public external and domestic debt. The positive effects of
 public debt relate to the fact that in resource-starved economies debt
 financing if done properly leads to higher growth and adds to their
 capacity to service and repay public debt. The negative effects work
 through two main channels—i.e., ―Debt Overhang‖ and ―Crowding Out‖
 effects. The present study examines the consequences of public debt for
 economic growth and investment in Pakistan for the period 1972-2009. It
 develops a hybrid model that explicitly incorporates the role of public
 debt in growth equations. As the some variables are I (1) and other are
 I (0) so Autoregressive Distributed Lag(ARDL) technique has been applied
 to estimate the model. Study finds that public external debt has
 negative relationship with per capita GDP and investment confirming the
 existence of ―Debt Overhang effect‖. However, due to insignificant
 relationships of debt servicing with investment and per capita GDP, the
 existence of the crowding out hypothesis could not be confirmed.
 Similarly, domestic debt has a negative relationship with investment and
 per capita GDP. In other words, it seems to have crowded out private
 investment. JEL classification: H63, O43, E22, C22 Keywords: Public
 Debt, Economic Growth, Investment, ARDL

http://www.thepdr.pk/pdr/index.php/pdr/article/download/2486/2486

Impact of Public Debt on the Economic Growth of Pakistan.

Asia is recognized as one of the most vulnerable regions to climate change on the planet. With approximately 60 per cent of world’s population residing in Asia, this phenomenon presents serious concerns for policymakers in the region. The present study analyses the impacts of climate change on economic growth for selected Asian countries during the period 1972-2009. A growth model has been developed by incorporating temperature and precipitation as proxies for climate change in the production function and a fixed effect model (FEM) and seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) have been used to estimate the model. The results reveal that economic growth is negatively affected by changes in temperature, precipitation and population growth whereas urbanization and human development stimulates economic growth. The results also indicate that agriculture is the most vulnerable sector to climate change and manufacturing is the least affected sector.

/pdf/is-climate-change-hindering-economic-growth-of-asian-g9vc3gn16g.pdf

Is climate change hindering economic growth of Asian economies

On the eve of the twenty-first century, due to continuing male dominance there exists widespread discrimination and gender gaps in Pakistani society which are hindering the progress of women to take an active part in development. It is common perception in development literature that countries can get considerable benefits for growth and economic development if women become more empowered. The present study while using the data of Demographic and Health Survey (PDHS) 2012–2013 tried to explore the factors that can play important role in empowering the women in Pakistan. In this regard, descriptive and correlation analysis, Logit, and Ordered Logit models have been estimated. It has been found that age, living in urban areas, education of women, participation in paid job, ownership of assets, wealth index of the household, number of sons and daughters alive and use of electronic media have positive relationships with different empowerment dimensions. However, age of household head, size of family and being relative of the husband has negative relationships with empowerment indicators. Husband’s education and use of print media have insignificant relationship with the women’s empowerment.

Women’s Empowerment in Pakistan: Its Dimensions and Determinants

In the recent history, Pakistan is facing the menace of terrorism. Besides facing the consequences of Afghan War, Pakistan is also affected by various ethnic, religious and linguistic conflicts which have increased terrorists’ activities. These conflicts have severely affected the socio-economic structure of Pakistan. To gauge the impact of terrorism on Pakistan’s economic growth Solow economic growth model has been used. Using data on terrorism from Global Terrorism Database, co-integration analysis for the period 1981-2012 has been applied. The analysis suggests that terrorism has negatively affected the economic growth in Pakistan. Among the various variables that were used the terrorism is most significant and major contributor in reducing the economic growth. However, study finds that foreign assistance that is provided to Pakistan in the aftermath of the participations in Afghan war and the war against terrorism; in the shape of aid, grants and debt rescheduling etc. has a positive impact on the economic growth.

Naeem Akram

Papers

The Long Term Impact of Health on Economic Growth in Pakistan

Impact of Public Debt on the Economic Growth of Pakistan.

Is climate change hindering economic growth of Asian economies

Women’s Empowerment in Pakistan: Its Dimensions and Determinants

Impact of terrorism on economic development in pakistan