In this book, Andrew Harvey sets out to provide a unified and comprehensive theory of structural time series models. Unlike the traditional ARIMA models, structural time series models consist explicitly of unobserved components, such as trends and seasonals, which have a direct interpretation. As a result the model selection methodology associated with structural models is much closer to econometric methodology. The link with econometrics is made even closer by the natural way in which the models can be extended to include explanatory variables and to cope with multivariate time series. From the technical point of view, state space models and the Kalman filter play a key role in the statistical treatment of structural time series models. The book includes a detailed treatment of the Kalman filter. This technique was originally developed in control engineering, but is becoming increasingly important in fields such as economics and operations research. This book is concerned primarily with modelling economic and social time series, and with addressing the special problems which the treatment of such series poses. The properties of the models and the methodological techniques used to select them are illustrated with various applications. These range from the modellling of trends and cycles in US macroeconomic time series to to an evaluation of the effects of seat belt legislation in the UK.

Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter

EXAMPLES OF SPATIAL POINT PATTERNS INTRODUCTION TO POINT PROCESSES Point Processes on R^d Marked Point Processes and Multivariate Point Processes Unified Framework Space-Time Processes POISSON POINT PROCESSES Basic Properties Further Results Marked Poisson Processes SUMMARY STATISTICS First and Second Order Properties Summary Statistics Nonparametric Estimation Summary Statistics for Multivariate Point Processes Summary Statistics for Marked Point Processes COX PROCESSES Definition and Simple Examples Basic Properties Neyman-Scott Processes as Cox Processes Shot Noise Cox Processes Approximate Simulation of SNCPs Log Gaussian Cox Processes Simulation of Gaussian Fields and LGCPs Multivariate Cox Processes MARKOV POINT PROCESSES Finite Point Processes with a Density Pairwise Interaction Point Processes Markov Point Processes Extensions of Markov Point Processes to R^d Inhomogeneous Markov Point Processes Marked and Multivariate Markov Point Processes METROPOLIS-HASTINGS ALGORITHMS Description of Algorithms Background Material for Markov Chains Convergence Properties of Algorithms SIMULATION-BASED INFERENCE Monte Carlo Methods and Output Analysis Estimation of Ratios of Normalising Constants Approximate Likelihood Inference Using MCMC Monte Carlo Error Distribution of Estimates and Hypothesis Tests Approximate MissingData Likelihoods INFERENCE FOR MARKOV POINT PROCESSES Maximum Likelihood Inference Pseudo Likelihood Bayesian Inference INFERENCE FOR COX PROCESSES Minimum Contrast Estimation Conditional Simulation and Prediction Maximum Likelihood Inference Bayesian Inference BIRTH-DEATH PROCESSES AND PERFECT SIMULATION Spatial Birth-Death Processes Perfect Simulation APPENDICES History, Bibliography, and Software Measure Theoretical Details Moment Measures and Palm Distributions Perfect Simulation of SNCPs Simulation of Gaussian Fields Nearest-Neighbour Markov Point Processes Results for Spatial Birth-Death Processes References Subject Index Notation Index

/pdf/statistical-inference-and-simulation-for-spatial-point-4a2u0b4fde.pdf

Statistical Inference and Simulation for Spatial Point Processes

Random-Cluster Model

The class of random-cluster models is a unification of a variety of stochastic processes of significance for probability and statistical physics, including percolation, Ising, and Potts models; in addition, their study has impact on the theory of certain random combinatorial structures, and of electrical networks. Much (but not all) of the physical theory of Ising/Potts models is best implemented in the context of the random-cluster representation. This systematic summary of random-cluster models includes accounts of the fundamental methods and inequalities, the uniqueness and specification of infinite-volume measures, the existence and nature of the phase transition, and the structure of the subcritical and supercritical phases. The theory for two-dimensional lattices is better developed than for three and more dimensions. There is a rich collection of open problems, including some of substantial significance for the general area of disordered systems, and these are highlighted when encountered. Amongst the major open questions, there is the problem of ascertaining the exact nature of the phase transition for general values of the cluster-weighting factor q, and the problem of proving that the critical random-cluster model in two dimensions, with 1 ≤ q ≤ 4, converges when re-scaled to a stochastic Lowner evolution (SLE). Overall the emphasis is upon the random-cluster model for its own sake, rather than upon its applications to Ising and Potts systems.

/pdf/the-random-cluster-model-2qwn7m4tes.pdf

The Random-Cluster Model

We attempt to trace the history and development of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) from its early inception in the late 1940s through its use today. We see how the earlier stages of Monte Carlo (MC, not MCMC) research have led to the algorithms currently in use. More importantly, we see how the development of this methodology has not only changed our solutions to problems, but has changed the way we think about problems.

/pdf/a-short-history-of-markov-chain-monte-carlo-subjective-47fm62vidu.pdf

A Short History of Markov Chain Monte Carlo: Subjective Recollections from Incomplete Data

Perfect simulation for interacting point processes, loss networks and Ising models

Spatial birth and death processes are obtained as solutions of a sys- tem of stochastic equations. The processes are required to be locally nite, but may involve an innite population over the full (noncompact) type space. Con- ditions are given for existence and uniqueness of such solutions, and for temporal and spatial ergodicity. For birth and death processes with constant death rate, a sub-criticality condition on the birth rate implies that the process is ergodic and converges exponentially fast to the stationary distribution.

http://alea.impa.br/articles/v1/01-12.pdf

Spatial birth and death processes as solutions of stochastic equations

We present a probabilistic approach for the study of systems with exclusions in the regime traditionally studied via cluster-expansion methods. In this paper we focus on its application for the gases of Peierls contours found in the study of the Ising model at low temperatures, but most of the results are general. We realize the equilibrium measure as the invariant measure of a loss network process whose existence is ensured by a subcriticality condition of a dominant branching process. In this regime the approach yields, besides existence and uniqueness of the measure, properties such as exponential space convergence and mixing, and a central limit theorem. The loss network converges exponentially fast to the equilibrium measure, without metastable traps. This convergence is faster at low temperatures, where it leads to the proof of an asymptotic Poisson distribution of contours. Our results on the mixing properties of the measure are comparable to those obtained with “duplicated-variables expansion,” used to treat systems with disorder and coupled map lattices. It works in a larger region of validity than usual cluster-expansion formalisms, and it is not tied to the analyticity of the pressure. In fact, it does not lead to any kind of expansion for the latter, and the properties of the equilibrium measure are obtained without resorting to combinatorial or complex analysis techniques.

/pdf/loss-network-representation-of-peierls-contours-4wyxlv1wnk.pdf

Loss Network Representation of Peierls Contours

The starting point of this article is the question "How to retrieve fingerprints of rhythm in written texts?" We address this problem in the case of Brazilian and European Portuguese. These two dialects of Modern Portuguese share the same lexicon and most of the sentences they produce are superficially identical. Yet they are conjectured, on linguistic grounds, to implement different rhythms. We show that this linguistic question can be formulated as a problem of model selection in the class of variable length Markov chains. To carry on this approach, we compare texts from European and Brazilian Portuguese. These texts are previously encoded according to some basic rhythmic features of the sentences which can be automatically retrieved. This is an entirely new approach from the linguistic point of view. Our statistical contribution is the introduction of the smallest maximizer criterion which is a constant free procedure for model selection. As a by-product, this provides a solution for the problem of optimal choice of the penalty constant when using the BIC to select a variable length Markov chain. Besides proving the consistency of the smallest maximizer criterion when the sample size diverges, we also make a simulation study comparing our approach with both the standard BIC selection and the Peres-Shields order estimation. Applied to the linguistic sample constituted for our case study, the smallest maximizer criterion assigns different context-tree models to the two dialects of Portuguese. The features of the selected models are compatible with current conjectures discussed in the linguistic literature.

Context tree selection and linguistic rhythm retrieval from written texts

We present a perfect simulation algorithm for measures that are absolutely continuous with respect to some Poisson process and can be obtained as invariant measures of birth-and-death processes. Examples include area- and perimeter-interacting point processes (with stochastic grains), invariant measures of loss networks, and the Ising contour and random cluster models. The algorithm does not involve couplings of the process with different initial conditions and it is not tied up to monotonicity requirements. Furthermore, it directly provides perfect samples of finite windows of the infinite-volume measure, subjected to time and space ``user-impatience bias''. The algorithm is based on a two-step procedure: (i) a perfect-simulation scheme for a (finite and random) relevant portion of a (space-time) marked Poisson processes (free birth-and-death process, free loss networks), and (ii) a ``cleaning'' algorithm that trims out this process according to the interaction rules of the target process. The first step involves the perfect generation of ``ancestors'' of a given object, that is of predecessors that may have an influence on the birth-rate under the target process. The second step, and hence the whole procedure, is feasible if these ``ancestors'' form a finite set with probability one. We present a sufficiency criteria for this condition, based on the absence of infinite clusters for an associated (backwards) oriented percolation model.

Nancy L. Garcia

Papers

Perfect simulation for interacting point processes, loss networks and Ising models

Spatial birth and death processes as solutions of stochastic equations

Loss Network Representation of Peierls Contours

Context tree selection and linguistic rhythm retrieval from written texts

Perfect simulation for interacting point processes, loss networks and Ising models