Cold groundwater discharge to streams and rivers can provide critical thermal refuge for threatened salmonids and other aquatic species during warm summer periods. Climate change may influence groundwater temperature and flow rates, which may in turn impact riverine ecosystems. This study evaluates the potential impact of climate change on the timing, magnitude, and temperature of groundwater discharge from small, unconfined aquifers that undergo seasonal freezing and thawing. Seven downscaled climate scenarios for 2046–2065 were utilized to drive surficial water and energy balance models (HELP3 and ForHyM2) to obtain future projections for daily ground surface temperature and groundwater recharge. These future surface conditions were then applied as boundary conditions to drive subsurface simulations of variably saturated groundwater flow and energy transport. The subsurface simulations were performed with the U.S. Geological Survey finite element model SUTRA that was recently modified to include the dynamic freeze-thaw process. The SUTRA simulations indicate a potential rise in the magnitude (up to 34%) and temperature (up to 3.6°C) of groundwater discharge to the adjacent river during the summer months due to projected increases in air temperature and precipitation. The thermal response of groundwater to climate change is shown to be strongly dependent on the aquifer dimensions. Thus, the simulations demonstrate that the thermal sensitivity of aquifers and baseflow-dominated streams to decadal climate change may be more complex than previously thought. Furthermore, the results indicate that the probability of exceeding critical temperature thresholds within groundwater-sourced thermal refugia may significantly increase under the most extreme climate scenarios.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/2013WR014588

Climate change impacts on the temperature and magnitude of groundwater discharge from shallow, unconfined aquifers

Summer water temperatures are rising in many river systems in North America, and this warming trend is projected to intensify in the coming decades. Cold-water fish may alleviate thermal stress in summer by aggregating in discrete cold-water plumes that provide thermal refuge from high ambient river temperatures. Reliance on cold-water thermal refugia is expected to increase in a warming climate, and many river reaches already lack suitable thermal refugia as a result of an absence of thermal diversity. A comprehensive fish management strategy could proactively address this imminent threat to cold-water fish populations across North America by preserving existing thermal refugia, augmenting thermal anomalies to improve performance as refugia, and creating new thermal refugia in uniformly warm river reaches. We provide practical recommendations on how these measures can be accomplished based on insight derived from recent research focused on the Miramichi River, New Brunswick. Opportunities include limiting land use change, construction aggregate extraction (e.g. sand and gravel pits), and groundwater pumping/consumption. Existing thermal anomalies can be enhanced by controlling advective thermal mixing between cold-water tributaries and the river mainstem flow, installing riparian shading, and adding temporary structures for protection from avian predators. New refugia can be created by temporarily pumping groundwater to discrete points within the river during periods of thermal stress. These concepts are discussed in the context of a comprehensive thermal refugia management strategy. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Preserving, augmenting, and creating cold-water thermal refugia in rivers: concepts derived from research on the Miramichi River, New Brunswick (Canada)

Prevailing theory suggests that stream temperature warms asymptotically in a downstream direction, beginning at the temperature of the source in the headwaters and levelling off downstream as it converges to match meteorological conditions. However, there have been few empirical examples of longitudinal patterns of temperature in large rivers due to a paucity of data. We constructed longitudinal thermal profiles (temperature vs distance) for 53 rivers in the Pacific Northwest (USA) using an extensive data set of remotely sensed summertime river temperatures and classified each profile into one of five patterns of downstream warming: asymptotic (increasing then flattening), linear (increasing steadily), uniform (not changing), parabolic (increasing then decreasing), or complex (not fitting other classes). We evaluated (1) how frequently profiles warmed asymptotically downstream as expected, and (2) whether relationships between river temperature and common hydroclimatic variables differed by profile class. We found considerable diversity in profile shape, with 47% of rivers warming asymptotically and 53% having alternative profile shapes. Water temperature did not warm substantially over the course of the river for coastal parabolic and uniform profiles, and for some linear and complex profiles. Profile classes showed no clear geographical trends. The degree of correlation between river temperature and hydroclimatic variables differed among profile classes, but there was overlap among classes. Water temperature in rivers with asymptotic or parabolic profiles was positively correlated with August air temperature, tributary temperature and velocity, and negatively correlated with elevation, August precipitation, gradient and distance upstream. Conversely, associations were less apparent in rivers with linear, uniform or complex profiles. Factors contributing to the unique shape of parabolic profiles differed for coastal and inland rivers, where downstream cooling was influenced locally by climate or cool water inputs, respectively. Potential drivers of shape for complex profiles were specific to each river. These thermal patterns indicate diverse thermal habitats that may promote resilience of aquatic biota to climate change. Without this spatial context, climate change models may incorrectly estimate loss of thermally suitable habitat. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

https://www.fs.fed.us/pnw/pubs/journals/pnw_2015_fullerton001.pdf

Rethinking the longitudinal stream temperature paradigm: region‐wide comparison of thermal infrared imagery reveals unexpected complexity of river temperatures

Spatial distribution of thermal refuges analysed in relation to riverscape hydromorphology using airborne thermal infrared imagery

Climate-change driven increases in water temperature pose challenges for aquatic organisms. Predictions of impacts typically do not account for fine-grained spatiotemporal thermal patterns in rivers. Patches of cooler water could serve as refuges for anadromous species like salmon that migrate during summer. We used high-resolution remotely sensed water temperature data to characterize summer thermal heterogeneity patterns for 11,308 km of 2nd- to 7th-order rivers throughout the Pacific Northwest and northern California (USA). We evaluated (1) water temperature patterns at different spatial resolutions, (2) the frequency, size, and spacing of cool thermal patches suitable for Pacific salmon (i.e., contiguous stretches ≥0.25 km, ≤15°C and ≥2°C cooler than adjacent water), and (3) potential influences of climate change on availability of cool patches. Thermal heterogeneity was nonlinearly related to the spatial resolution of water temperature data, and heterogeneity at fine resolution ( 2.7 and 5.7 and <49.4 km. Thermal heterogeneity varied among rivers, some of which had long uninterrupted stretches of warm water ≥20°C, and others had many smaller cool patches. Our models predicted little change in future thermal heterogeneity among rivers, but within-river patterns sometimes changed markedly compared to contemporary patterns. These results can inform long-term monitoring programs as well as near-term climate-adaptation strategies.

/pdf/longitudinal-thermal-heterogeneity-in-rivers-and-refugia-for-1tqkqlb2gw.pdf

Longitudinal thermal heterogeneity in rivers and refugia for coldwater species: effects of scale and climate change

Linking landscape variables to cold water refugia in rivers.

Anthropogenic influences, including climate change, are increasing river temperatures in northern and temperate regions and threatening the thermal habitats of native salmonids. When river temperatures exceed the tolerance levels of brook trout and Atlantic salmon, individuals exhibit behavioural thermoregulation by seeking out cold‐water refugia – often created by tributaries and groundwater discharge. Thermal infrared (TIR) imagery was used to map cold‐water anomalies along a 53 km reach of the Cains River, New Brunswick. Trout and salmon parr did not use all identified thermal anomalies as refugia during higher river temperature periods (>21°C). Most small‐bodied trout (8–30 cm) were observed in 80% of the thermal anomalies sampled. Large‐bodied trout (>35 cm) required a more specific set of physical habitat conditions for suitable refugia, that is, 100% of observed large trout used 30% of the anomalies sampled and required water depths >65 cm within or adjacent to the anomaly. Densities of trout were significantly higher within anomalies compared with areas of ambient river temperature. Salmon parr were less aligned with thermal anomalies at the observed temperatures, that is, 59% were found in 65% of the sampled anomalies; and densities were not significantly different within/ outside anomalies. Salmon parr appeared to aggregate at 27°C, and after several events over 27°C variability in aggregation behaviour was observed – some fish aggregated at 25°C, others did not. We stipulate this is due to variances of thermal fatigue. Habitat suitability curves were developed for velocity, temperature, depth, substrate, and deep water availability to characterize conditions preferred by fish during high‐temperature events. These findings are useful for managers as our climate warms, and can potentially be used as a tool to help conserve and enhance thermal refugia for brook trout and Atlantic salmon in similar systems.

Characterizing physical habitat preferences and thermal refuge occupancy of brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) and Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) at high river temperatures

Nathan M. Wilbur

Papers

Linking landscape variables to cold water refugia in rivers.

Characterizing physical habitat preferences and thermal refuge occupancy of brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) and Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) at high river temperatures