Environmental hazards: Assessing risk and reducing disaster

In this paper, a new multi-criteria problem solving method—the Full Consistency Method (FUCOM)—is proposed. The model implies the definition of two groups of constraints that need to satisfy the optimal values of weight coefficients. The first group of constraints is the condition that the relations of the weight coefficients of criteria should be equal to the comparative priorities of the criteria. The second group of constraints is defined on the basis of the conditions of mathematical transitivity. After defining the constraints and solving the model, in addition to optimal weight values, a deviation from full consistency (DFC) is obtained. The degree of DFC is the deviation value of the obtained weight coefficients from the estimated comparative priorities of the criteria. In addition, DFC is also the reliability confirmation of the obtained weights of criteria. In order to illustrate the proposed model and evaluate its performance, FUCOM was tested on several numerical examples from the literature. The model validation was performed by comparing it with the other subjective models (the Best Worst Method (BWM) and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)), based on the pairwise comparisons of the criteria and the validation of the results by using DFC. The results show that FUCOM provides better results than the BWM and AHP methods, when the relation between consistency and the required number of the comparisons of the criteria are taken into consideration. The main advantages of FUCOM in relation to the existing multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) methods are as follows: (1) a significantly smaller number of pairwise comparisons (only n − 1), (2) a consistent pairwise comparison of criteria, and (3) the calculation of the reliable values of criteria weight coefficients, which contribute to rational judgment.

https://www.mdpi.com/2073-8994/10/9/393/pdf

A New Model for Determining Weight Coefficients of Criteria in MCDM Models: Full Consistency Method (FUCOM)

Multi-Criteria Decision-Analysis (MCDA) methods are successfully applied in different fields and disciplines. However, in many studies, the problem of selecting the proper methods and parameters for the decision problems is raised. The paper undertakes an attempt to benchmark selected Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) methods. To achieve that, a set of feasible MCDA methods was identified. Based on reference literature guidelines, a simulation experiment was planned. The formal foundations of the authors’ approach provide a reference set of MCDA methods ( Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS), VlseKriterijumska Optimizacija I Kompromisno Resenje (VIKOR), Complex Proportional Assessment (COPRAS), and PROMETHEE II: Preference Ranking Organization Method for Enrichment of Evaluations) along with their similarity coefficients (Spearman correlation coefficients and WS coefficient). This allowed the generation of a set of models differentiated by the number of attributes and decision variants, as well as similarity research for the obtained rankings sets. As the authors aim to build a complex benchmarking model, additional dimensions were taken into account during the simulation experiments. The aspects of the performed analysis and benchmarking methods include various weighing methods (results obtained using entropy and standard deviation methods) and varied techniques of normalization of MCDA model input data. Comparative analyses showed the detailed influence of values of particular parameters on the final form and a similarity of the final rankings obtained by different MCDA methods.

https://www.mdpi.com/2073-8994/12/9/1549/pdf

Are MCDA Methods Benchmarkable? A Comparative Study of TOPSIS, VIKOR, COPRAS, and PROMETHEE II Methods

Sustainability is one of the main challenges of the recent decades. In this regard, several prior studies have used different techniques and approaches for solving this problem in the field of sustainability engineering. Multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) is an important technique that presents a systematic approach for helping decisionmakers in this field. The main goal of this paper is to review the literature concerning the application of MCDM methods in the field of sustainable engineering. The Web of Science (WoS) Core Collection Database was chosen to identify 108 papers in the period of 2008–2018. The selected papers were classified into five categories, including construction and infrastructure, supply chains, transport and logistics, energy, and other. In addition, the articles were classified based on author, year, application area, study objective and problem, applied methods, number of published papers, and name of the journal. The results of this paper show that sustainable engineering is an area that is quite suitable for the use of MCDM. It can be concluded that most of the methods used in sustainable engineering are based on traditional approaches with a noticeable trend towards applying the theory of uncertainty, such as fuzzy, grey, rough, and neutrosophic theory.

Application of MCDM Methods in Sustainability Engineering: A Literature Review 2008–2018

Sustainable development is one of the most important preconditions for preserving resources and balanced functioning of a complete supply chain in different areas. Taking into account the complexity of sustainable development and a supply chain, different decisions have to be made day-to-day, requiring the consideration of different parameters. One of the most important decisions in a sustainable supply chain is the selection of a sustainable supplier and, often the applied methodology is multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM). In this paper, a new hybrid MCDM model for evaluating and selecting suppliers in a sustainable supply chain for a construction company has been developed. The evaluation and selection of suppliers have been carried out on the basis of 21 criteria that belong to all aspects of sustainability. The determination of the weight values of criteria has been performed applying the full consistency method (FUCOM), while a new rough complex proportional assessment (COPRAS) method has been developed to evaluate the alternatives. The rough Dombi aggregator has been used for averaging in group decision-making while evaluating the significance of criteria and assessing the alternatives. The obtained results have been checked and confirmed using a sensitivity analysis that implies a four-phase procedure. In the first phase, the change of criteria weight was performed, while, in the second phase, rough additive ratio assessment (ARAS), rough weighted aggregated sum product assessment (WASPAS), rough simple additive weighting (SAW), and rough multi-attributive border approximation area comparison (MABAC) have been applied. The third phase involves changing the parameter ρ in the modeling of rough Dombi aggregator, and the fourth phase includes the calculation of Spearman’s correlation coefficient (SCC) that shows a high correlation of ranks.

https://www.mdpi.com/2073-8994/11/3/353/pdf

A New Hybrid MCDM Model: Sustainable Supplier Selection in a Construction Company

A level crossing, as a point of the crossing of road and rail traffic in the same level, is a place of conflicts subject to traffic accidents. In Serbia, the selection of the level crossings to be secured is mostly done based on the media and society pressure, as a result of an increase of the number of accidents at level crossings. In Serbia, there is no defined methodology for the evaluation of level crossings, respectively, for the development of a strategy for making relevant decision. This paper presents the application of a group multi-criteria FUCOM-MAIRCA (Full Consistency Method – Multi Attributive Ideal-Real Comparative Analysis) model that supports the process of selecting a level crossing in terms of investing in its security equipment. The FUCOM-MAIRCA multi-criteria model is tested in a case study which included the evaluation of ten level crossings within the railway infrastructure in the Republic of Serbia. The evaluation of the crossings is carried out through the assessment according to seven criteria set out on the basis of representative literature and surveys of experts. Sensitivity test of the FUCOM-MAIRCA model is performed by changing the weight coefficients of criteria and statistically processing the results using Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient.

/pdf/multi-criteria-fucom-mairca-model-for-the-evaluation-of-2gfrlqugue.pdf

Multi-criteria FUCOM-MAIRCA model for the evaluation of level crossings: case study in the Republic of Serbia

This paper presents a new approach to the treatment of uncertainty and imprecision in multi-criteria decision-making based on interval rough numbers (IRN). The IRN-based approach provides decision-making using only internal knowledge for the data and operational information of a decision-maker. A new normalized weighted geometric Bonferroni mean operator is developed on the basis of the IRN for the aggregation of the IRN (IRNWGBM). Testing of the IRNWGBM operator is performed through the application in a hybrid IR-DEMATEL-COPRAS multi-criteria model which is tested on real case of selection of optimal direction for the creation of a temporary military route. The first part of hybrid model is the IRN DEMATEL model, which provides objective expert evaluation of criteria under the conditions of uncertainty and imprecision. In the second part of the model, the evaluation is carried out using the new interval rough COPRAS technique.

/pdf/normalized-weighted-geometric-bonferroni-mean-operator-of-3cm665cm0h.pdf

Normalized weighted geometric bonferroni mean operator of interval rough numbers – application in interval rough dematel-copras model

The Logarithm Methodology of Additive Weights (LMAW) method is a very young method and in its basic form is defined for crisp values. In this paper, the LMAW method was improved by being modified with triangular fuzzy numbers. The modification significantly improved the capacity of the LMAW method to consider uncertainty in decision making. The special importance of the method is reflected in a relatively simple mathematical apparatus due to which it is possible to define, with high quality, weight coefficients of criteria and rank alternative solutions in uncertain environments. The method was tested in solving the problem of the location selection for a landing operations point (LOP) in combat operations of the army. The validation of the obtained results was performed: (1) by means of comparison with the Fuzzy Simple Additive Weighting (FSAW) Method, the Fuzzy Multi-Attributive Border Approximation area Comparison (FMABAC), the fuzzy Višekriterijumsko KOmpromisno Rangiranje (FVIKOR), the fuzzy COmpressed PRoportional ASsessment (FCOPRAS), and the fuzzy Multi Attributive Ideal-Real Comparative Analysis (FMAIRCA); (2) by means of sensitivity analysis by changing the weight coefficients of criteria; and (3) using simulation software. In comparison with other methods, the quality of the ranking of alternative solutions was confirmed, which highlighted the special importance of the fuzzy LMAW method relative to that of certain standard methods, respectively, the ones that are often used and confirmed in practice. On the other hand, the sensitivity analysis, including the changing of the weight coefficients of criteria, showed that the model could tolerate smaller errors in defining the weight coefficients of criteria, and it provided stable results. Finally, the validation of results achieved with the use of simulation software confirmed the obtained output results. The output results confirmed the quality of the modified method.

/pdf/modification-of-the-logarithm-methodology-of-additive-3gofk0b4.pdf

Modification of the Logarithm Methodology of Additive Weights (LMAW) by a Triangular Fuzzy Number and Its Application in Multi-Criteria Decision Making

Risk assessment of natural and other disasters in the Republic of Serbia is defined using special methodology. This paper presents a model of improving the existing methodology by using a new generation of fuzzy logic systems (fuzzy logic systems of type 2). This type of fuzzy logic systems is a significant improvement of the existing fuzzy logic systems of type 1. Fuzzy logic systems type 2 are based on the application of new interval fuzzy numbers that consider undetermined relative to classic fuzzy numbers in a better way. The fuzzy logic system presented in this paper translates vagueness and uncertainty, those that accompany risk assessment of natural disasters and other catastrophes, into an algorithm. This kind of algorithm makes the difference between data that are absolutely correct and those less accurate, those that clearly fit in the defined evaluation scales and those that are on the limit of values and so on. This kind of a model can help decisionmakers who conduct risk assessment of natural and other disasters since it is rather easy to use and does not require prior knowledge. Thereby, the existing methodology is used as a cornerstone in the developed model. Also, the model is significant for persons engaged in decision-making in other areas because it is a method that has not been extensively applied in science and practice, and whose development is at the beginning.

http://www.management.fon.bg.ac.rs/management/e_management_80_english_03.pdf

Risk Assessment of Natural Disasters Using Fuzzy Logic System of Type 2

A distribution of information in emergency situations represents a serious challenge for expert services which are being engaged in protection and rescue. The number of people who need help in emergency situations is rather large and the number of those who can really be helped depends on their availability to the expert services. A large number of people, especially endangered groups, can be saved with the help of timely and qualitative information. In conditions determined with a lack of time, emergency situation staff has to make a decision regarding population informing about incoming danger. In the paper, a hybrid model based on analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and multi-criteria compromise ranking (VIKOR) is presented, applied through selection of best medium for population informing in emergency situations The AHP method is used for determination of criteria weight coefficients, while the VIKOR method is applied in order to be found the best media by selection amongst numerous concrete options – alternatives.

/pdf/application-of-the-ahp-vikor-hybrid-model-in-media-selection-3e80g9ws5y.pdf

Nenad Komazec

Papers

Multi-criteria FUCOM-MAIRCA model for the evaluation of level crossings: case study in the Republic of Serbia

Normalized weighted geometric bonferroni mean operator of interval rough numbers – application in interval rough dematel-copras model

Modification of the Logarithm Methodology of Additive Weights (LMAW) by a Triangular Fuzzy Number and Its Application in Multi-Criteria Decision Making

Risk Assessment of Natural Disasters Using Fuzzy Logic System of Type 2

Application of the AHP-VIKOR hybrid model in media selection for informing of endangered in emergency situations