Several studies have shown that global crop production needs to double by 2050 to meet the projected demands from rising population, diet shifts, and increasing biofuels consumption. Boosting crop yields to meet these rising demands, rather than clearing more land for agriculture has been highlighted as a preferred solution to meet this goal. However, we first need to understand how crop yields are changing globally, and whether we are on track to double production by 2050. Using ∼2.5 million agricultural statistics, collected for ∼13,500 political units across the world, we track four key global crops-maize, rice, wheat, and soybean-that currently produce nearly two-thirds of global agricultural calories. We find that yields in these top four crops are increasing at 1.6%, 1.0%, 0.9%, and 1.3% per year, non-compounding rates, respectively, which is less than the 2.4% per year rate required to double global production by 2050. At these rates global production in these crops would increase by ∼67%, ∼42%, ∼38%, and ∼55%, respectively, which is far below what is needed to meet projected demands in 2050. We present detailed maps to identify where rates must be increased to boost crop production and meet rising demands.

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Yield Trends Are Insufficient to Double Global Crop Production by 2050.

The paper focuses on conservation agriculture (CA), defined as minimal soil disturbance (no-till, NT) and permanent soil cover (mulch) combined with rotations, as a more sustainable cultivation system for the future. Cultivation and tillage play an important role in agriculture. The benefits of tillage in agriculture are explored before introducing conservation tillage (CT), a practice that was borne out of the American dust bowl of the 1930s. The paper then describes the benefits of CA, a suggested improvement on CT, where NT, mulch and rotations significantly improve soil properties and other biotic factors. The paper concludes that CA is a more sustainable and environmentally friendly management system for cultivating crops. Case studies from the rice-wheat areas of the Indo-Gangetic Plains of South Asia and the irrigated maize-wheat systems of Northwest Mexico are used to describe how CA practices have been used in these two environments to raise production sustainably and profitably. Benefits in terms of greenhouse gas emissions and their effect on global warming are also discussed. The paper concludes that agriculture in the next decade will have to sustainably produce more food from less land through more efficient use of natural resources and with minimal impact on the environment in order to meet growing population demands. Promoting and adopting CA management systems can help meet this goal.

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The role of conservation agriculture in sustainable agriculture.

▪ Abstract Agriculture is a resource-intensive enterprise. The manner in which food production systems utilize resources has a large influence on environmental quality. To evaluate prospects for conserving natural resources while meeting increased demand for cereals, we interpret recent trends and future trajectories in crop yields, land and nitrogen fertilizer use, carbon sequestration, and greenhouse gas emissions to identify key issues and challenges. Based on this assessment, we conclude that avoiding expansion of cultivation into natural ecosystems, increased nitrogen use efficiency, and improved soil quality are pivotal components of a sustainable agriculture that meets human needs and protects natural resources. To achieve this outcome will depend on raising the yield potential and closing existing yield gaps of the major cereal crops to avoid yield stagnation in some of the world's most productive systems. Recent trends suggest, however, that increasing crop yield potential is a formidable scienti...

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Meeting Cereal Demand While Protecting Natural Resources and Improving Environmental Quality

Productivity and management of rice–wheat cropping systems: issues and challenges

The Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management in Agriculture (CA) seeks answers to the question of how freshwater resources can be developed and managed to feed the world's population and reduce poverty, while at the same time promoting environmental security. The CA pays particular attention to rice as this crop is the most common staple food of the largest number of people on Earth (about 3 billion people) while receiving an estimated 24–30% of the world's developed freshwater resources. Rice environments also provide unique—but as yet poorly understood—ecosystem services such as the regulation of water and the preservation of aquatic and terrestrial biodiversity. Rice production under flooded conditions is highly sustainable. In comparison with other field crops, flooded rice fields produce more of the greenhouse gas methane but less nitrous oxide, have no to very little nitrate pollution of the groundwater, and use relatively little to no herbicides. Flooded rice can locally raise groundwater tables with subsequent risk of salinization if the groundwater carries salts, but is also an effective restoration crop to leach accumulated salts from the soil in combination with drainage. The production of rice needs to increase in the coming decades to meet the food demand of growing populations. To meet the dual challenges of producing enough food and alleviating poverty, more rice needs to be produced at a low cost per kilogram grain (ensuring reasonable profits for producers) so that prices can be kept low for poor consumers. This increase in rice production needs to be accomplished under increasing scarcity of water, which threatens the sustainability and capability to provide ecosystem services of current production systems. Water scarcity is expected to shift rice production to more water‐abundant delta areas, and to lead to crop diversification and more aerobic (nonflooded) soil conditions in rice fields in water‐short areas. In these latter areas, investments should target the adoption of water‐saving technologies, the reuse of drainage and percolation water, and the improvement of irrigation supply systems. A suite of water‐saving technologies can help farmers reduce percolation, drainage, and evaporation losses from their fields by 15–20% without a yield decline. However, greater understanding of the adverse effects of increasingly aerobic field conditions on the sustainability of rice production, environment, and ecosystem services is needed. In drought‐, salinity‐, and flood‐prone environments, the combination of improved varieties with specific management packages has the potential to increase on‐farm yields by 50–100% in the coming 10 years, provided that investment in research and extension is intensified.

O. Sariam

Papers

How widespread are yield declines in long-term rice experiments in Asia?

Do organic amendments improve yield trends and profitability in intensive rice systems