Dengue is a systemic viral infection transmitted between humans by Aedes mosquitoes. For some patients, dengue is a life-threatening illness. There are currently no licensed vaccines or specific therapeutics, and substantial vector control efforts have not stopped its rapid emergence and global spread. The contemporary worldwide distribution of the risk of dengue virus infection and its public health burden are poorly known. Here we undertake an exhaustive assembly of known records of dengue occurrence worldwide, and use a formal modelling framework to map the global distribution of dengue risk. We then pair the resulting risk map with detailed longitudinal information from dengue cohort studies and population surfaces to infer the public health burden of dengue in 2010. We predict dengue to be ubiquitous throughout the tropics, with local spatial variations in risk influenced strongly by rainfall, temperature and the degree of urbanization. Using cartographic approaches, we estimate there to be 390 million (95% credible interval 284-528) dengue infections per year, of which 96 million (67-136) manifest apparently (any level of disease severity). This infection total is more than three times the dengue burden estimate of the World Health Organization. Stratification of our estimates by country allows comparison with national dengue reporting, after taking into account the probability of an apparent infection being formally reported. The most notable differences are discussed. These new risk maps and infection estimates provide novel insights into the global, regional and national public health burden imposed by dengue. We anticipate that they will provide a starting point for a wider discussion about the global impact of this disease and will help to guide improvements in disease control strategies using vaccine, drug and vector control methods, and in their economic evaluation.

/pdf/the-global-distribution-and-burden-of-dengue-4d1crnic4u.pdf

The global distribution and burden of dengue

https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(16)00562-6.pdf

Guillain-Barré Syndrome outbreak associated with Zika virus infection in French Polynesia: a case-control study

Dengue fever and dengue haemorrhagic fever are important arthropod-borne viral diseases. Each year, there are ∼50 million dengue infections and ∼500,000 individuals are hospitalized with dengue haemorrhagic fever, mainly in Southeast Asia, the Pacific and the Americas. Illness is produced by any of the four dengue virus serotypes. A global strategy aimed at increasing the capacity for surveillance and outbreak response, changing behaviours and reducing the disease burden using integrated vector management in conjunction with early and accurate diagnosis has been advocated. Antiviral drugs and vaccines that are currently under development could also make an important contribution to dengue control in the future.

Dengue: a continuing global threat

Statistical Analysis With Missing Data (2nd ed.) (Book)

Background: Dengue is a growing problem both in its geographical spread and in its intensity, and yet current global distribution remains highly uncertain. Challenges in diagnosis and diagnostic methods as well as highly variable national health systems mean no single data source can reliably estimate the distribution of this disease. As such, there is a lack of agreement on national dengue status among international health organisations. Here we bring together all available information on dengue occurrence using a novel approach to produce an evidence consensus map of the disease range that highlights nations with an uncertain dengue status. Methods/Principal Findings: A baseline methodology was used to assess a range of evidence for each country. In regions where dengue status was uncertain, additional evidence types were included to either clarify dengue status or confirm that it is unknown at this time. An algorithm was developed that assesses evidence quality and consistency, giving each country an evidence consensus score. Using this approach, we were able to generate a contemporary global map of national-level dengue status that assigns a relative measure of certainty and identifies gaps in the available evidence. Conclusion: The map produced here provides a list of 128 countries for which there is good evidence of dengue occurrence, including 36 countries that have previously been classified as dengue-free by the World Health Organization and/or the US Centers for Disease Control. It also identifies disease surveillance needs, which we list in full. The disease extents and limits determined here using evidence consensus, marks the beginning of a five-year study to advance the mapping of dengue virus transmission and disease risk. Completion of this first step has allowed us to produce a preliminary estimate of population at risk with an upper bound of 3.97 billion people. This figure will be refined in future work.

/pdf/refining-the-global-spatial-limits-of-dengue-virus-f8emry0wk5.pdf

Refining the global spatial limits of dengue virus transmission by evidence-based consensus

Beschluss und Wissenschaftliche Begründung der Ständigen Impfkommission (STIKO) für die Aktualisierung der Influenza-Impfempfehlung für Personen im Alter von ≥ 60 Jahren

Summary Despite widespread resistance, chloroquine remains widely used in West Africa, particularly in home treatment. We examined chloroquine blood levels on admission to a referral hospital with respect to the manifestation of severe malaria in 290 Ghanaian children. Of the patients, 78% exhibited chloroquine concentrations (subtherapeutic, 35%; therapeutic, 37%; supratherapeutic, 6%) and 11% died. Most parasites (78%) carried the pfcrt -T76 chloroquine resistance mutation. High drug concentrations correlated with reduced parasitaemia but also with selection of resistant parasites, lower respiratory and heart rates, increased plasma lactate levels and impaired consciousness. Geometric mean chloroquine concentrations tended to be higher in children who died than in survivors (1.135 vs. 778 nmol/l; P  = 0.09). Supratherapeutic drug levels (>5000 nmol/l) were associated with fatal outcome (odds ratio 8.6; 95% CI 1.4–51.7). Residual chloroquine concentrations were found to be abundant in children with severe malaria and to be associated with alterations in the clinical manifestation of the disease and its case fatality. This may result from toxic effects of the drug and/or reflect preceding overtreatment in children with acute life-threatening disease. In areas of intense chloroquine resistance and frequent pre-treatment, additional administration of chloroquine at hospital admission is not only ineffective but may even further endanger patients.

High residual chloroquine blood levels in African children with severe malaria seeking healthcare

Welche Impfquote ist notwendig, um COVID-19 zu kontrollieren?

Given limited resources and time constraints, the use of existing systematic reviews (SR) for the development of evidence-based public health recommendations has become increasingly important. Recently, a five-step approach for identifying, analyzing, appraising and using existing SRs based on recent guidance by the US Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ) was proposed within the Project on a Framework for Rating Evidence in Public Health (PRECEPT). However, case studies are needed to test whether this approach is useful, what challenges arise and how problems can be solved. In two case studies, the five-step approach was applied to integrate existing SRs in the development of evidence-based public health recommendations. Case study A focused on the role of neonatal sepsis as a risk factor for adverse neurodevelopmental outcome. Case study B examined the efficacy, effectiveness and safety of influenza vaccination during pregnancy. For each step, we report the approach of the review team, discuss challenges and describe solutions. For case study A, one existing SR was identified, while in case study B four SRs were eligible for analysis. We found that comparison of inclusion criteria alone was sufficient to judge on relevance of SRs in case study A, but not B. Although methodological quality of all identified SRs was acceptable, risk of bias assessments of individual studies included in the SRs had to be repeated in both case studies. Particular challenges appeared in case study B where multiple SRs addressed the same research question. With the help of spreadsheets comparing the characteristics of the existing SR we decided to use the most comprehensive one for our evidence synthesis and supplemented the results with those from the other SRs. In both case studies using the complete SR was not possible. The five-step approach provided useful and structured guidance and should be routinely applied when using existing SRs as a basis for evidence-based recommendations in public health. In situations where more than one SR has to be considered, the development of spreadsheets comparing characteristics, inclusion criteria, risk of bias, included studies and outcomes seems useful.

/pdf/use-of-existing-systematic-reviews-for-evidence-assessments-1iuxm72csg.pdf

Ole Wichmann

Papers

Beschluss und Wissenschaftliche Begründung der Ständigen Impfkommission (STIKO) für die Aktualisierung der Influenza-Impfempfehlung für Personen im Alter von ≥ 60 Jahren

High residual chloroquine blood levels in African children with severe malaria seeking healthcare

Welche Impfquote ist notwendig, um COVID-19 zu kontrollieren?

Use of existing systematic reviews for evidence assessments in infectious disease prevention: a comparative case study

Survey of pediatricians in Germany reveals important challenges for possible implementation of meningococcal B vaccination.