The current approaches to estimating the level of energy security are based on applying a comprehensive approach to selecting the factors that affect energy security and the dynamics of processes in this domain. This article reveals the application of the model of energy security estimation and strategizing based on the systemic description of energy security as an object of management: the integral system, elements and connections, functions, processes, and the system’s material. At the same time, this model is able to take into account the dynamics of technological, political, economic, and other factors operating in the country and on the global arena. The energy security estimation model developed uses a modern methodology of integrated estimation: a multiplicative form of the integrated index, a formalized definition of the safe existence limits in order to provide scientific substantiation of the threshold vector, a modified rationing method, the principal components method, and the sliding matrix method to substantiate dynamic weighting coefficients. The paper demonstrates the systemic approach application to shaping strategic goals in the energy security domain in the context of sustainable development; the trajectory of energy security development is calculated by the method of strategizing that applies the principle “future is determined by the trajectory to the future” instead of the classical forecasting “past determines the future”. In general, the article shows the possibility of unifying the process of formalizing energy security (according to the needs of the researcher: country, industry, energy network, supply chain) as an object of management, estimating energy security status, and strategizing the regulatory sphere transformation in accordance with the target values for monitoring the effectiveness of management.

https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/14/8/2126/pdf

The Systemic Approach for Estimating and Strategizing Energy Security: The Case of Ukraine

The article aims to enhance understanding of how relations, behavior and attitude of the executives and contractors to achieving the objectives by energy supplying companies affect the efficiency of the latter’s overall development. There is offered a factor-reflexive approach to diagnosing the executives’ and contractors’ attitude to realizing the tasks of developing the energy supplying companies. This approach includes models to identify and analyze the factors that influenced the change in contractors’ behavior based on the combination of expert techniques, correlation and regression analysis and evaluation of the personnel response to organizational, resource and staffing projects development, through accumulating sufficient statistical information based on the enterprise’s features, relations and environment. This approach to diagnosing executives’ and contractors’ response to the implementation of tasks and the resulting changes takes into account the subjective component of their response. Practical implementation of this approach in monitoring the conformity of the development tasks has proven the ability to identify problems from the viewpoint of the task executives.

https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/14/9/2572/pdf

The Factorial-Reflexive Approach to Diagnosing the Executors’ and Contractors’ Attitude to Achieving the Objectives by Energy Supplying Companies

A comprehensive assessment of smart grids is critical for their development. Existing scientific research testifies to the urgency and complexity of the problem of implementing smart grids effectively, both in terms of a single project performance and from the standpoint of creating a local, and later global, energy system. The multidimensionality of smart grids makes it challenging to assess the effectiveness of their implementation. Difficulties in evaluation arise because it is challenging to consider technical, technological, economic, and other relevant aspects of smart grids’ development within a single evaluation system. There are currently a significant number of smart grid assessment systems. However, it remains debatable how systematically and comprehensively they measure the efficiency of a smart grid. This, in turn, raises the question of whether there is a universal evaluation system that integrally considers all the crucial components of smart grids and is suitable for evaluating smart grid projects of different content. This article analyzes the most well-known approaches to comprehensive assessment of smart grids according to the completeness of their coverage of smart grids’ most critical components. This paper identifies the essential areas for assessing smart grids according to the most cited and authoritative research and regulatory documents of the European Union. As a result, seven groups of indicators were identified. These groups of indicators are the basis for comparative analysis of the comprehensive assessment approaches of smart grids. The results of the study should help determine the appropriateness of applying a particular evaluation system. In addition, the analysis of existing evaluation systems allows the shaping of a universal approach to evaluating smart grids comprehensively and systematically.

Comprehensive Assessment of Smart Grids: Is There a Universal Approach?

A comprehensive study was conducted in the direction of research and institutional support and comparison with the nearest neighbour - Poland, to determine the current state and justify strategic scenarios for Ukraine's integration into the research, educational and innovation spaces of the EU as a source of proactive sustainable innovative development. Analysis of the use of foresight technology to determine the possible future, create the desired image of the future and determine strategies to achieve it using methods developed in various research areas revealed that its application makes sense in determining long-term factors, trends and directions of national economies. That is, in foresighting, in contrast to forecasting, the emphasis is made on qualitative rather than quantitative results, which does not provide the expected targeted policy of the state, because it does not give clear, concrete results of actions - quantitative strategic benchmarks, monitoring which would control the process of these areas' development. The disadvantages of foresighting methods that limit its application are identified. Scientific substantiation of strategic scenarios of European integration of Ukrainian and Polish research, education and innovation spaces is based on the concept of sustainable development, which is grounded on applied systems theory, management theory and economic cybernetics and comprises the stages of identifying and strategizing. Identification is carried out taking into account the definition of the safe existence boundaries and simultaneous norming and integrated convolution of indicators and thresholds of education and innovation. Comparison on one scale of integrated indices of education and innovation makes it possible to carry out the goal-setting stage, identify possible strategic development scenarios and build the desired development trajectories, i.e., to implement the principle of strategizing "the future is determined by the trajectory into future." Thus, knowledge of the desired values of integrated indices in each year makes it possible, through their decomposition by the method of adaptive regulation from the management theory, to justify the values of indicators that provide the desired growth trajectory and achieve certain goals of research, educational and innovative spaces of Ukraine and Poland.

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Strategic European Integration Scenarios of Ukrainian and Polish Research, Education and Innovation Spaces

The term “energy security” is used almost everywhere in economic and political discussions related to energy supply. However, different authors use different meanings to express the concept of energy security. Quite often, this term is used to give more importance or relevance to issues that are often not inherently related to energy security. Attempts to define the essence of the concept of “energy security” have hitherto not been systematic and are characterized by a variety of approaches, and some insufficient justification especially in the aspect of state national security is notable. Our contribution to the discourse development is the consideration of energy security as part of internationally recognized indices that are developed to assess the temperature of world security. A regression modeling approach to test the crucial factors of social-economic development that impact the energy security indicators is presented. The literature analysis and review of the world’s existing national security indices show that the link between energy security and national security is in fact hardly considered. Mostly, energy security is considered in the dichotomy concerning economic security at the international, as well as national levels. The calculative regression modeling revealed that the significant correlation of economic and energy security is just for the U.S.A., the rest of the analyzed countires display the weak or non-significant correlations of the indices of economic/energy/security threats. That pushes the discussion on whether energy security is indeed so impactful a factor for geo-policy and geo-economy, or whether it is mostly the well-rolled media-supported megatrend. However, the present study notes a great shortage of long-term cross-state indices to reflect energy, economic, and national security to allow for valuable modeling.

The Place of Energy Security in the National Security Framework: An Assessment Approach

Developing the critical infrastructure protection system in Ukraine: monograph

/pdf/methodological-basis-for-asessing-the-level-and-strategic-1ur95epbem.pdf

Methodological basis for asessing the level and strategic planing of the energy security of ukraine

Authoritarian players, who take advantage of the fundamental principles of liberal democracy in their own interests, can use energy as an effective tool for destroying democratic and market-oriented societies. Russia has perfected its means of influence and a toolkit for the practical implementation of its interests on the EU energy market, utilizing energy to the fullest extent to achieve its foreign policy goals. Involving the establishments of EU countries in energy cooperation projects with the Russian Federation turned out to be the most efficient method. The willingness to lobby for Russia's interests has been stimulated, in particular, by ensuring special terms of supply contracts, access for companies from certain countries to the extraction of energy resources in Russia, and the employment of officials from certain countries in Russian energy companies. 
The exploitation of energy as a weapon effectively neutralizes the ability of liberal democracies to oppose the aggressive behavior of authoritarian energy suppliers. Moreover, individual countries become informal allies of authoritarian leaders under certain conditions. 
The author argues that certain indicators can be used to formalize the assessment of the level of influence of energy resource suppliers on the ability of the leaders of consumer countries to resist pressure. This formalization makes it possible to reasonably approach the assessment of the level of the country's energy security and overall national security based on the influence of external threats, especially dependence on an external supplier.

Oleksandr Sukhodolia

Papers

The Systemic Approach for Estimating and Strategizing Energy Security: The Case of Ukraine

Developing the critical infrastructure protection system in Ukraine: monograph

Methodological basis for asessing the level and strategic planing of the energy security of ukraine

Russia’s energy policy as a tool of hybrid destruction of the democratic world