The second edition of this acclaimed graduate text provides a unified treatment of two methods used in contemporary econometric research, cross section and data panel methods. By focusing on assumptions that can be given behavioral content, the book maintains an appropriate level of rigor while emphasizing intuitive thinking. The analysis covers both linear and nonlinear models, including models with dynamics and/or individual heterogeneity. In addition to general estimation frameworks (particular methods of moments and maximum likelihood), specific linear and nonlinear methods are covered in detail, including probit and logit models and their multivariate, Tobit models, models for count data, censored and missing data schemes, causal (or treatment) effects, and duration analysis. Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data was the first graduate econometrics text to focus on microeconomic data structures, allowing assumptions to be separated into population and sampling assumptions. This second edition has been substantially updated and revised. Improvements include a broader class of models for missing data problems; more detailed treatment of cluster problems, an important topic for empirical researchers; expanded discussion of "generalized instrumental variables" (GIV) estimation; new coverage (based on the author's own recent research) of inverse probability weighting; a more complete framework for estimating treatment effects with panel data, and a firmly established link between econometric approaches to nonlinear panel data and the "generalized estimating equation" literature popular in statistics and other fields. New attention is given to explaining when particular econometric methods can be applied; the goal is not only to tell readers what does work, but why certain "obvious" procedures do not. The numerous included exercises, both theoretical and computer-based, allow the reader to extend methods covered in the text and discover new insights.

/pdf/econometric-analysis-of-cross-section-and-panel-data-3jzr8emmtf.pdf

Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data

This book describes the new generation of discrete choice methods, focusing on the many advances that are made possible by simulation. Researchers use these statistical methods to examine the choices that consumers, households, firms, and other agents make. Each of the major models is covered: logit, generalized extreme value, or GEV (including nested and cross-nested logits), probit, and mixed logit, plus a variety of specifications that build on these basics. Simulation-assisted estimation procedures are investigated and compared, including maximum simulated likelihood, method of simulated moments, and method of simulated scores. Procedures for drawing from densities are described, including variance reduction techniques such as anithetics and Halton draws. Recent advances in Bayesian procedures are explored, including the use of the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm and its variant Gibbs sampling. No other book incorporates all these fields, which have arisen in the past 20 years. The procedures are applicable in many fields, including energy, transportation, environmental studies, health, labor, and marketing.

/pdf/discrete-choice-methods-with-simulation-l1x4cghjtt.pdf

Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation

Convergence of Probability Measures. By P. Billingsley. Chichester, Sussex, Wiley, 1968. xii, 253 p. 9 1/4“. 117s.

Convergence of Probability Measures

Offering a unifying theoretical perspective not readily available in any other text, this innovative guide to econometrics uses simple geometrical arguments to develop students' intuitive understanding of basic and advanced topics, emphasizing throughout the practical applications of modern theory and nonlinear techniques of estimation. One theme of the text is the use of artificial regressions for estimation, reference, and specification testing of nonlinear models, including diagnostic tests for parameter constancy, serial correlation, heteroscedasticity, and other types of mis-specification. Explaining how estimates can be obtained and tests can be carried out, the authors go beyond a mere algebraic description to one that can be easily translated into the commands of a standard econometric software package. Covering an unprecedented range of problems with a consistent emphasis on those that arise in applied work, this accessible and coherent guide to the most vital topics in econometrics today is indispensable for advanced students of econometrics and students of statistics interested in regression and related topics. It will also suit practising econometricians who want to update their skills. Flexibly designed to accommodate a variety of course levels, it offers both complete coverage of the basic material and separate chapters on areas of specialized interest.

Estimation and Inference in Econometrics

In this book, Andrew Harvey sets out to provide a unified and comprehensive theory of structural time series models. Unlike the traditional ARIMA models, structural time series models consist explicitly of unobserved components, such as trends and seasonals, which have a direct interpretation. As a result the model selection methodology associated with structural models is much closer to econometric methodology. The link with econometrics is made even closer by the natural way in which the models can be extended to include explanatory variables and to cope with multivariate time series. From the technical point of view, state space models and the Kalman filter play a key role in the statistical treatment of structural time series models. The book includes a detailed treatment of the Kalman filter. This technique was originally developed in control engineering, but is becoming increasingly important in fields such as economics and operations research. This book is concerned primarily with modelling economic and social time series, and with addressing the special problems which the treatment of such series poses. The properties of the models and the methodological techniques used to select them are illustrated with various applications. These range from the modellling of trends and cycles in US macroeconomic time series to to an evaluation of the effects of seat belt legislation in the UK.

Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter

We introduce the Realized moMents of Disjoint Increments (ReMeDI) paradigm to measure microstructure noise (the deviation of the observed asset prices from the fundamental values caused by market imperfections). We propose consistent estimators of arbitrary finite moments of a microstructure noise process, which could be serially dependent and nonstationary, based on high-frequency data. We characterize the limit distributions of the proposed estimators and construct robust confidence intervals under infill asymptotics. We further demonstrate that the ReMeDI approach also works on low-frequency, non-infill data. It thus can be applied to many asset pricing and macroeconomic models, in which the time series have a permanent and a transitory component.

We propose two liquidity measures that gauge the instantaneous and average bid-ask spread with potentially autocorrelated order flows. They can be consistently estimated within our framework. We provide an economic model to justify such measures as an intermediary's inventory risk measure when meeting serially dependent liquidity demand. Empirically we find our new liquidity measures are very effective to identify liquidity drains during the Flash Crash, when the market experienced extreme selling pressures.

A remedi for microstructure noise

We examine the relationship between the risk premium on the S&P500 index total return and its conditional variance. We propose a new semiparametric model in which the conditional variance process is parametric, while the conditional mean is an arbitrary function of the condi-tional variance. For monthly S&P 500 excess returns, the relationship between the two moments that we uncover is nonlinear and nonmonotonic. Moreover, we find considerable persistence in the conditional variance as well as a leverage effect as documented by others.

/pdf/the-shape-of-risk-premium-evidence-from-a-semiparametric-1mvsng179x.pdf

The Shape of Risk Premium: Evidence from a Semiparametric GARCH Model

Advances in Robust and Flexible Inference in Econometrics: A Special Issue in Honour of Joel L. Horowitz

An alternative GLS-like transformation in regression models with AR(1)-errors

We explore time-varying networks for high-dimensional locally stationary time series, using the large VAR model framework with both the transition and (error) precision matrices evolving smoothly over time. Two types of time-varying graphs are investigated: one containing directed edges of Granger causality linkages, and the other containing undirected edges of partial correlation linkages. Under the sparse structural assumption, we propose a penalised local linear method with time-varying weighted group LASSO to jointly estimate the transition matrices and identify their significant entries, and a time-varying CLIME method to estimate the precision matrices. The estimated transition and precision matrices are then used to determine the time-varying network structures. Under some mild conditions, we derive the theoretical properties of the proposed estimates including the consistency and oracle properties. In addition, we extend the methodology and theory to cover highly-correlated large-scale time series, for which the sparsity assumption becomes invalid and we allow for common factors before estimating the factor-adjusted time-varying networks. We provide extensive simulation studies and an empirical application to a large U.S. macroeconomic dataset to illustrate the finite-sample performance of our methods.

Oliver Linton

Papers

A remedi for microstructure noise

The Shape of Risk Premium: Evidence from a Semiparametric GARCH Model

Advances in Robust and Flexible Inference in Econometrics: A Special Issue in Honour of Joel L. Horowitz

An alternative GLS-like transformation in regression models with AR(1)-errors

Estimating Time-Varying Networks for High-Dimensional Time Series