Climate change 2014 - Synthesis Report

Over the past 50 years, humans have altered their environment to a significant extent, although human well-being is dependent on ecosystem functioning. Ecosystems are particularly affected by unsustainable use of resources, such as, food, water, and timber. Ecosystem functions depend on water, carbon, and other nutrients cycles. Human activities have modified these cycles in a number of way. Use of ecosystems for recreation, spiritual enrichment, cultural purposes, and for other short term benefits is growing continuously, although ecosystem capacity to provide such services has reported to be declined significantly. Human well-being depends on material welfare, health, good social relations, security and freedom, which are affected by changes in ecosystem services. Intensive ecosystem use often produces short-term advantage. Poverty level remains high in more than one billion people, who are dependent on ecosystems with an income of less than $1 per day as reported elsewhere. Regions including some parts of Africa, Asia and Latin America have the greatest ecosystemrelated problems and are facing developmental challenges. Habitat change occurs, for instance, when the area of land used for agriculture or cities is expanded. Instability and unproductivity including desertification, water logging, mineralization and many other unwanted outcomes throughout the world are continuing. Habitat fragmentation by roads, canals, power lines limits the species potential for dispersal and colonization. Indirect drivers, like changes in human population, economic activity and technology as well as socio-political and cultural factors affect ecosystems by influencing direct drivers. World climate has changed and continues to change, affecting temperature, rainfall and sea levels. Intensive fertilizer use has polluted ecosystems. Climate change and high nutrient levels in water are becoming increasing problems. Ecosystem management for shortterm benefits is increasing. Loss of biodiversity makes it difficult for ecosystems to recover from damage. Once an ecosystem has undergone an abrupt change, recovery to the original state is slow, costly, and sometimes impossible. Changes in ecosystems complexity- functioning relationships could diminish the stability, resistance and resilience of managed terrestrial ecosystems, and may jeopardize important food and fibre sources, and ability of natural ecosystems both to provide natural resources, and to remove pollutants from atmosphere. Ecological complexity and ecosystem functioning depend on factors that govern species coexistence. Complexity of landscapes is determined by number of ecosystem types, their characteristics, their sizes and shapes, and associated connectivity. Complexity at this scale would have large consequences on regional to global scale processes. Presence and arrangement of keystone ecosystem types, such as, wetlands often determine total carbon and nitrogen balance of a region. Changes in average or extreme environmental events and intense land use management are believed to increase species extinction rate in isolated habitat fragments. Loss of key species, such as, top predators, fruit dispersers and pollinators from habitat may severely disrupt ecosystems functioning. Land use changes due to expanding urbanization, concomitant landscape fragmentation and intensification of production systems. Such change results in transformation of an ecosystem, form one state to another state, via a transition phase. The combined value of 17 ecosystem services has been reported in the estimated range of US$16-54 trillion per year by Costanza and others. About 30% of modern medicines are developed from plants and animals, and 10 of the world's 25 topselling drugs in 1997 were reported to be derived from natural sources. Global market value of pharmaceuticals derived from genetic resources is estimated at US $ 75 000-150 000 million annually. Some 75% of the world's populations rely for health care on traditional medicines, which are derived directly from natural sources as recorded elsewhere. Socio-economic development of human civilization and human well-being depends on long-term health of environment including ecosystems. Environmental problems are generally addressed in isolation, but practically such problems are interrelated, and originate from the root cause of unsustainable development. Damage to natural ecosystems and release of environmental pollutants must be minimized for protecting natural ecosystem, and human well-being.

Ecosystems and Human Well-Being

Landscapes change because they are the expression of the dynamic interaction between natural and cultural forces in the environment. Cultural landscapes are the result of consecutive reorganization of the land in order to adapt its use and spatial structure better to the changing societal demands. Particularly in Europe, history has recorded many successive and even devastating landscape changes, which have left barely any relics today. Today, the changes are seen as a menace, as a negative evolution because they cause a loss of diversity, coherence and identity, which were characteristic for the traditional cultural landscapes that are rapidly vanishing. This growing concern is also expressed in the European Landscape Convention, which will be used as a start for the analysis in this article. Three periods of landscape dynamics are considered: the traditional landscapes before the important changes that started in the 18th century, the landscapes of the revolutions age of the 19th to 20th century, and the post-modern new landscapes. The combined effect of the driving forces such as accessibility, urbanization, globalization and the impact of calamities have been different in each of the periods and affected the nature and pace of the changes as well as the perception people have had about the landscape. Values change accordingly and so does the way of using and shaping the landscape. It is argued that this changing perception also influences what kind and aspects of landscapes are studied, protected and managed. Diversity and identity of cultural landscapes are central in the discussion. It is shown that coherence between small composing elements in a broader spatial context is important for the legibility of the landscape and that the ability to tell the (his)story of a place strongly enhances the identity and the overall value. This offers criteria for inventorying and assessing landscapes, which is needed to define future management and development. Although the general trends of future development of the European landscapes are rather well known, planning and managing future landscape remains difficult and extremely uncertain. The processes and management in past traditional landscapes and the manifold relations people have towards the perceivable environment and the symbolic meaning it generates, offer valuable knowledge for more sustainable planning and management for future landscapes.

Why Landscapes of the Past are Important for the Future

The purpose of the study was to model the current and potential future distribution of Quercus libani Olivier (Lebanon Oak), a tree species in Turkey, and to predict the changes in its geographical distribution under different climate change scenarios. In this study, 19 bioclimatic variables at a spatial resolution of 30 arc seconds (~1 km2) were used, collected from the WorldClim database. The bioclimatic data with high correlation according to 31 sets of presence data on the species were reduced with principal component analysis (PCA), and the current and potential distribution were identified using MaxEnt 3.4.1 software. In order to predict how the distribution of the species will be affected by climate change, its potential geographical distribution by 2050 and 2070 was modeled under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios of the species using the Community Climate System Model (CCSM, version 4), which is a climate change model based on the report of the fifth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Change analysis was performed to determine the spatial differences between its current and future distribution areas. The study results showed that the suitable areas for the current distribution of Quercus libani Olivier cover 72,819 km2. Depending on the CCSM4 climate model, the suitable area will decline to 67,580 km2 by 2070, according to the RCP 4.5 scenario, or 63,390 km2 in the RCP 8.5 scenario. This may lead to a reduction in the future population of this species. The change analysis showed that suitable and highly suitable areas will decrease under global climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) for both current and future potential distribution areas. In this context, our study results indicate that for the management of this species, protective environmental measures should be taken, and climate change models need to be considered in land use and forest management planning.

MaxEnt Modeling for Predicting the Current and Future Potential Geographical Distribution of Quercus libani Olivier

The Effects of Climate Change Scenarios on Carpinus betulus and Carpinus orientalis in Europe

This study aims to model the potential distribution areas of the species Rosa canina L. (rose hip) and to predict and analyse possible future changes in its distribution under given climate change scenarios. Nineteen bioclimatic variables from the WorldClim database were applied to 180 known species presence locations and the potential distribution area of the species under current conditions was identified using MaxEnt. To determine the future geographical distribution of the species under the impact of climate change, the Community Climate System Model (CCSM ver. 4) was used. The climate change scenarios were taken from the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios for 2050 and 2070 developed in line with the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In addition, change analysis was carried out to identify the precise differences of area and location between the current and future potential distributions of the species, specifying habitat gains, habitat losses and stable habitats. Finally, a jackknife test was carried out to determine which individual bioclimatic variables affect the geographical distribution of the species the most. The study found that areas totalling 170,596 km2 are currently ‘highly suitable’ for Rosa canina L., but that this area will contract to 114,474 km2 by 2070 in the RCP 4.5 scenario and to 41,146 km2 by 2070 in the RCP 8.5 scenario. The mean temperature of the wettest quarter was the most influential bioclimatic variable affecting the distribution of the species.

Distribution of rose hip (Rosa canina L.) under current and future climate conditions

Climate change has negative effects on especially plant species that have a limited habitat. In this context, the stone pine (Pinus pinea L.), which has a limited distribution, is prominent with its economic, ecological and aesthetical characteristics, and it is frequently preferred in afforestation. In this study, the habitats in Turkey that are suitable for distribution of P. pinea L. were modelled by using Maxent based on high-resolution environmental data. In total, 13 field-based occurrence points and 19 bioclimatic variables were used to model the potential distribution area under current and two prediction model (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for the years 2050 and 2070. According to the results, the most important bioclimatic variables effective on the potential distribution of P. pinea L. were found as the minimum temperature of coldest month (Bio6), annual precipitation (Bio12) and precipitation of wettest quarter (Bio16). Prediction models under two future climate change scenarios displayed that P. pinea L. will lose habitat and it will shift geographical distribution towards north and higher elevation sites. Considering especially the economic contributions provided by P. pinea L., these results necessitate consideration of the areas where the rate of potential distribution of the species is the highest in afforestation work aiming rural development. In addition to habitat losses, climate change affects many variables of the ecosystem.

https://www.scielo.br/pdf/cerne/v25n4/2317-6342-cerne-25-04-415.pdf

Investigation and evaluation of stone pine (Pinus pinea L.) current and future potential distribution under climate change in Turkey.

This study uses photographs on social media to spatially model the potential distribution of user preferences for cultural ecosystem services (CES). The areas within the administrative boundaries of the province of Isparta in Turkey’s Mediterranean region constitute the study area. Hundred and sixty-six photographs with geographical coordinates, taken between the years 2012–2018 and shared on photograph sharing platform Flickr, were linked to CES, and the CES provided in the study area were identified and categorised. The species distribution model was used in the study, and the natural and cultural assets in the study area were taken as environmental independent variables. The study used MaxEnt and geographical information systems integrally. For every CES, hotspot areas were identified and the degrees of significance of environmental variables for generating CES potential were determined. The highest level of CES provision in the study area was for recreation. The most important environmental variables for determining CES distribution were roads, religious places and distance to historical and cultural areas, identified by degrees of proximity using Euclidian distances. Among the significant conclusions of the study are overlapping outcomes for closely related CES (such as aesthetic values and recreational values) and the relationship between the outcomes and the natural and cultural assets in the area (such as water surfaces, green fields.) The study is thought to contribute to the extant literature in terms of spatially assessing the intangible benefits of ecosystem services and land use decision-making.

MaxEnt modelling of the potential distribution areas of cultural ecosystem services using social media data and GIS

Climate models predict that the Mediterranean region will experience a particularly marked increase in aridity during the 21st century when compared to other regions. This study examines the current and future potential geographical distribution of the stone pine (Pinus pinea L.), a species of considerable ecological and economic importance, in the light of aridity predictions in the Mediterranean region. For this purpose, 19 bioclimatic variables taken from the Worldclim database in 30 arc-second spatial resolution (∼1000 m) were used. The bioclimatic variables that displayed high correlations with one another when applied to 125 pieces of presence data pertaining to the species were reduced using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and the current and future potential distribution areas of the species were identified using MaxEnt 3.4.1 software. To determine the future geographical distribution of the species under the impact of climate change, the Community Climate System Model (CCSM ver. 4) was used to model the potential geographical distribution areas for two climate scenarios – Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 – and two time periods (2041–2060 and 2061–2080). According to the model data, the predicted potential geographical distribution areas of the stone pine increase under the 2041–2060 and 2061–2080 RCP 4.5–8.5 scenarios and move northwards and towards higher altitudes. Knowledge of the current and future potential distribution maps of the species, and especially of the suitable/very suitable distribution areas, can be used in work on land use, afforestation, ecological restoration and the protection of the species.

Ömer K. Örücü

Papers

MaxEnt Modeling for Predicting the Current and Future Potential Geographical Distribution of Quercus libani Olivier

Distribution of rose hip (Rosa canina L.) under current and future climate conditions

Investigation and evaluation of stone pine (Pinus pinea L.) current and future potential distribution under climate change in Turkey.

MaxEnt modelling of the potential distribution areas of cultural ecosystem services using social media data and GIS

Habitat suitability mapping of stone pine (Pinus pinea L.) under the effects of climate change