Predicting the extinction of single populations or species requires ecological and evolutionary information. Primary demographic factors affecting population dynamics include social structure, life history variation caused by environmental fluctuation, dispersal in spatially heterogeneous environments, and local extinction and colonization. In small populations, inbreeding can greatly reduce the average individual fitness, and loss of genetic variability from random genetic drift can diminish future adaptability to a changing environment. Theory and empirical examples suggest that demography is usually of more immediate importance than population genetics in determining the minimum viable sizes of wild populations. The practical need in biological conservation for understanding the interaction of demographic and genetic factors in extinction may provide a focus for fundamental advances at the interface of ecology and evolution.

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/241/4872/1455.full.pdf

Genetics and demography in biological conservation

Many important questions in ecology and evolutionary biology can only be answered with data that extend over several decades and answering a substantial proportion of questions requires records of the life histories of recognisable individuals. We identify six advantages that long-term, individual based studies afford in ecology and evolution: (i) analysis of age structure; (ii) linkage between life history stages; (iii) quantification of social structure; (iv) derivation of lifetime fitness measures; (v) replication of estimates of selection; (vi) linkage between generations, and we review their impact on studies in six key areas of evolution and ecology. Our review emphasises the unusual opportunities and productivity of long-term, individual-based studies and documents the important role that they play in research on ecology and evolutionary biology as well as the difficulties they face.

https://www.cell.com/trends/ecology-evolution/pdf/S0169-5347(10)00184-9.pdf

Individuals and populations: the role of long-term, individual-based studies of animals in ecology and evolutionary biology.

According to behavioural ecology theory, sociality evolves when the net benefits of close association with conspecifics exceed the costs. The nature and relative magnitude of the benefits and costs of sociality are expected to vary across species and habitats. When sociality is favoured, animals may form groups that range from small pair-bonded units to huge aggregations. The size and composition of social groups have diverse effects on morphology and behaviour, ranging from the extent of sexual dimorphism to brain size, and the structure of social relationships. This general argument implies that sociality has fitness consequences for individuals. However, for most mammalian species, especially long-lived animals like primates, there are sizable gaps in the chain of evidence that links sociality and social bonds to fitness outcomes. These gaps reflect the difficulty of quantifying the cumulative effects of behavioural interactions on fitness and the lack of information about the nature of social relationships among individuals in most taxa. Here, I review what is known about the reproductive consequences of sociality for mammals.

https://www.sscnet.ucla.edu/anthro/faculty/silk/PDF%20Files%20Pubs/Silk%202007%20Value%20of%20Sociality.pdf

The adaptive value of sociality in mammalian groups

Population viability analysis (PVA) is widely applied in conservation biology to predict extinction risks for threatened species and to compare alternative options for their management. It can also be used as a basis for listing species as endangered under World Conservation Union criteria. However, there is considerable scepticism regarding the predictive accuracy of PVA, mainly because of a lack of validation in real systems. Here we conducted a retrospective test of PVA based on 21 long-term ecological studies--the first comprehensive and replicated evaluation of the predictive powers of PVA. Parameters were estimated from the first half of each data set and the second half was used to evaluate the performance of the model. Contrary to recent criticisms, we found that PVA predictions were surprisingly accurate. The risk of population decline closely matched observed outcomes, there was no significant bias, and population size projections did not differ significantly from reality. Furthermore, the predictions of the five PVA software packages were highly concordant. We conclude that PVA is a valid and sufficiently accurate tool for categorizing and managing endangered species.

Predictive accuracy of population viability analysis in conservation biology

Environmental change has altered the phenology, morphological traits and population dynamics of many species. However, the links underlying these joint responses remain largely unknown owing to a paucity of long-term data and the lack of an appropriate analytical framework. Here we investigate the link between phenotypic and demographic responses to environmental change using a new methodology and a long-term (1976-2008) data set from a hibernating mammal (the yellow-bellied marmot) inhabiting a dynamic subalpine habitat. We demonstrate how earlier emergence from hibernation and earlier weaning of young has led to a longer growing season and larger body masses before hibernation. The resulting shift in both the phenotype and the relationship between phenotype and fitness components led to a decline in adult mortality, which in turn triggered an abrupt increase in population size in recent years. Direct and trait-mediated effects of environmental change made comparable contributions to the observed marked increase in population growth. Our results help explain how a shift in phenology can cause simultaneous phenotypic and demographic changes, and highlight the need for a theory integrating ecological and evolutionary dynamics in stochastic environments.

/pdf/coupled-dynamics-of-body-mass-and-population-growth-in-2pwmme5c5r.pdf

Coupled dynamics of body mass and population growth in response to environmental change

Yellow-bellied marmots Marmota flaviventris in the East River Valley of Colorado were live-trapped and individually marked annually from 1962 through 1993. These pooled data were used to produce a demography and life table for these years. Females had significantly better survivorship than males beyond the first-year age class, and the sex ratio became progressively female biased. The major mortality factors of predation and unsuccessful hibernation acted evenly on all age classes as shown by the constant rates of survivorship. The rate of senescence indicated that the probability of mortality did not increase with age. Females produced litters from ages 2 to 10 years. Mean litter size was 4.1 and did not differ among age classes. The female generation length of 4.49 years was 2.4 times the life expectancy and the median survivorship. The net reproductive rate (Ro) was 0.67, yet the population did not continually decline; adjustments to these data increased Ro to 0.85. Reproductive values (Vx) were approximately equal across the reproductive age classes. The polygynous mating system is both cause and effect of the demography. Marmot population size is affected by weather factors that influence reproduction and survival, by predation, and by movement into and out of the study area.

/pdf/a-32-year-demography-of-yellow-bellied-marmots-marmota-260jnz5r64.pdf

A 32-year demography of yellow-bellied marmots (Marmota flaviventris)

The yellow-bellied marmot (Marmota flaviventris) is a social, ground-dwelling squirrel that lives either individually or in kin groups of from two to five adult females. Philopatry and daughter recruitment lead to the formation and persistence of matrilines at habitat sites. By using 37 years of demographic data for 12 habitat sites, we could determine long-term trends in the effects of group size on two measures of fitness, survivorship and net reproductive rate, which otherwise are obscured by annual fluctuations in these measures. Both size and number of matrilines varied among sites and survivorship and net reproductive rate varied among sites and among matriline sizes. The role of social organization was explored further by examining the effect of matriline size, averaged over all years and sites, on fitness. For both survivorship and net reproductive rate the relationship with matriline size was curvilinear. Fitness increased with the increase in matriline size and then decreased in the largest groups. Decreased fitness in matrilines of four or five was associated with agonistic behavior, a large number of 2-year-old females in the social group, and reproductive suppression. There is no evidence that females acted to increase their fitness by increasing indirect fitness; i.e., by assisting relatives, but attempted to increase direct fitness. Direct fitness increased when mortality and fission of large matrilines reduced group size and the surviving females increased reproduction.

https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/97/22/12149.full.pdf

Social enhancement of fitness in yellow-bellied marmots

Genetics and the conservation of mountain sheep ovis canadensis nelsoni

Yellow-bellied marmots Marmota flaviventris were live-trapped and marked in the East River Valley of Colorado from 1962 to 1998. For females, static life tables were calculated each year from 1967, when ages were well known, to 1997. Population density was determined, and from life tables calculations were made of: survivorship of young, yearlings and adults; percentage of females producing litters; mean and variance of litter size; net reproductive rate (Ro); and generation length. From climate records a set of 14 annual weather variables was developed that described temperature, precipitation and lengths of growing season and winter. Data from 1981 and 1996 were not used since weather data contained extreme outliers in date of last snow cover. Univariate correlation matrices were calculated among weather variables, among demographic variables, and between weather and demographic variables. Mean temperature in 24 of 29 years was cooler than long-term average temperature. Generation length increased during the years of the study. Weather data were used as independent variables with each dependent demographic variable to calculate nine multiple correlation and regression models. Models explained from 0% to 58% of the variation in demography. Significant factors in each model were mostly interpreted as affecting availability of energy necessary for successful hibernation and reproduction.

/pdf/weather-influences-on-demography-of-the-yellow-bellied-2xsrjmg2j7.pdf

Weather influences on demography of the yellow-bellied marmot ( Marmota flaviventris )

A method is described for estimating proteins in the same plant tissue sample that is solubilized for separation by two-dimensional polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis. The method uses a modified bicinchoninic acid (BCA) protein assay procedure and a modified standard urea solubilization buffer to estimate microgram values of unknown protein concentration, in the presence of 9 M urea and 4% Nonidet P-40, from a linear standard curve. A method for a quantitative determination of protein concentration by BCA in a sample containing 9 M urea and 4% Nonidet P-40 is also described. This method is effective for the determination of proteins in minute non-green and green plant tissue, and is especially designed for vegetative and floral shoot apices, and the primordia of inflorescences.

Orlando A. Schwartz

Papers

A 32-year demography of yellow-bellied marmots (Marmota flaviventris)

Social enhancement of fitness in yellow-bellied marmots

Genetics and the conservation of mountain sheep ovis canadensis nelsoni

Weather influences on demography of the yellow-bellied marmot ( Marmota flaviventris )

Assay of plant proteins with bicinchoninic acid for high resolution two-dimensional polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis.