https://epubs.surrey.ac.uk/1085/1/fulltext.pdf

Tourism Demand Modelling and Forecasting: A Review of Recent Research

We conducted a worldwide ranking of academic institutions that produce research in a list of thirty top research journals in economics. We also computed journal rankings for the same period and hence we do not rely on weights that were computed for research carried out in earlier periods. The United States is clearly the dominant force in the top-fifty group, but European academic institutions are well represented in the group of the top 200 universities worldwide as are universities from Asia and the Far East in particular. (JEL: A14, A10)

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Rankings of academic journals and institutions in economics

Eighty-four post-1990 empirical studies of international tourism demand modeling and forecasting using econometric approaches are reviewed. New developments are identified, and it is shown that applications of advanced econometric methods improve the understanding of international tourism demand. An examination of the 22 studies that compare forecasting performance suggests that no single forecasting method can outperform the alternatives in all cases. The time-varying parameter (TVP) model and structural time-series model with causal variables, however, perform consistently well.

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Recent Developments in Econometric Modeling and Forecasting

The literature on tourism and climate change lacks an analysis of the global changes in tourism demand. Here, a simulation model of international tourism is presented that fills that gap. The current pattern of international tourist flows is modelled using 1995 data on departures and arrivals for 207 countries. Using this basic model the impact on arrivals and departures through changes in population, per capita income and climate change are analysed. In the medium to long term, tourism will grow, however, the change from climate change is smaller than from population and income changes.

Climate change and international tourism: a simulation study

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Climate change and international tourism: A simulation study

We propose a consumer demand system approach to estimating the size of the black economy where alternative hypotheses affecting the empirical results can be tested in a nested framework. This approach allows for the estimation of the under-reporting of household income from various sources, dispensing with the need to use arbitrary criteria to classify households by their main source of income. It also avoids potential bias in black economy estimates arising from mistaking preference heterogeneity (substitution) as income effects. We illustrate these arguments by estimating the extent to which self-employment income in the UK is underreported using parametric and nonparametric techniques. The black economy, broadly defined as the economic activities that are hidden from public authorities to avoid taxation, has recently received increased attention in the literature due to arguments that the rising tax burden and state regulation is driving economic activity underground (Tanzi and Schuknecht, 1997; Enste and Schneider, 1998). The usefulness of attempts to estimate the size of the black economy, however, is a controversial issue. The sceptics emphasise the difficulties associated with the precise definition of black economy activities and point to the widely different estimates of the size of these activities resulting from alternative methods (Dixon, 1999; Tanzi, 1999; Thomas, 1999). Authors approaching the subject in an optimistic frame of mind emphasise positive aspects of estimating the size of the black economy such as the correct measurement of GDP and other macroeconomic variables (e.g. employment) and the design of policy and econometric models (Bhattacharyya, 1999; Giles, 1999). The controversy on estimation issues, however, does not subtract from the widespread concern about the undesired consequences of the black economy. Undeclared economic activities reduce the tax base, thereby undermining the financing of public goods and social protection. A country trying to curtail the loss of tax revenue by raising tax rates can create a vicious cycle, as this reinforces the incentive not to declare economic activities to the public authorities. High tax rates have a distorting effect resulting in inefficient allocation of resources due to unequal opportunities and willingness to evade in different sectors of the economy and can undermine the ability of the country to compete internationally. Distortions in the labour market can also arise because individuals working in the black economy may have difficulty in moving from one job to another. Furthermore, in countries where health, pension and other social security payments are not universal, individuals working in the black economy and their families are outside the

Estimates of the black economy based on consumer demand approaches

This paper investigates how preference endogeneity, in the form of habit persistence, can affect short-run and long-run tourism expenditure decisions. The proposed model is applied to British quarterly data over the period 1979–91 and the empirical results suggest that preference endogeneity appears to have an important effect. This has policy implications for countries competing for British tourist arrivals. The differences between the short-run and long-run price and budget elasticities which are implied by habit persistence are also investigated.

Dynamic analysis of British demand for tourism abroad

Testing the rank of Engel curves with endogenous expenditure

This paper estimates adult equivalence scales in the context of a nonlinear demand system using cross-section individual household data. It then evaluates the treatment of children under the tax allowance and child benefit systems on the basis of the estimated equivalence scales. The results suggest that a child benefit system allowing for economies of scale in the family is consistent with the cost of children implied by the notion of adult equivalence scale.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm/j_1475-4991_1997_tb00203_x_wml.pdf?abstractid=1782505&mirid=5

Comparison of alternative tax and transfer treatment of children using adult equivalence scales

This article examines the effect of preference heterogeneity on nonparametric and parametric tests of the rank of demand systems. Using samples of households drawn from the U.K. Family Expenditure Survey, we find that preference heterogeneity increases the rank of demand systems. When the effects of household characteristics on demand are removed by semiparametric techniques, a rank-3 demand system appears to be an adequate empirical specification for all samples.

Panayiota Lyssiotou

Papers

Estimates of the black economy based on consumer demand approaches

Dynamic analysis of British demand for tourism abroad

Testing the rank of Engel curves with endogenous expenditure

Comparison of alternative tax and transfer treatment of children using adult equivalence scales

Preference Heterogeneity and the Rank of Demand Systems