Cause, conseguenze e strategie di mitigazione Proponiamo il primo di una serie di articoli in cui affronteremo l’attuale problema dei mutamenti climatici. Presentiamo il documento redatto, votato e pubblicato dall’Ipcc - Comitato intergovernativo sui cambiamenti climatici - che illustra la sintesi delle ricerche svolte su questo tema rilevante.

/pdf/climate-change-2007-the-physical-science-basis-1x93ttz9jt.pdf

Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis.

Climate change 2014 - Synthesis Report

The purpose of this paper is to provide a comprehensive presentation and interpretation of the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) and its numerical implementation. The EnKF has a large user group, and numerous publications have discussed applications and theoretical aspects of it. This paper reviews the important results from these studies and also presents new ideas and alternative interpretations which further explain the success of the EnKF. In addition to providing the theoretical framework needed for using the EnKF, there is also a focus on the algorithmic formulation and optimal numerical implementation. A program listing is given for some of the key subroutines. The paper also touches upon specific issues such as the use of nonlinear measurements, in situ profiles of temperature and salinity, and data which are available with high frequency in time. An ensemble based optimal interpolation (EnOI) scheme is presented as a cost-effective approach which may serve as an alternative to the EnKF in some applications. A fairly extensive discussion is devoted to the use of time correlated model errors and the estimation of model bias.

The Ensemble Kalman Filter: Theoretical formulation and practical implementation

Global sea levels have risen through the 20th century. These rises will almost certainly accelerate through the 21st century and beyond because of global warming, but their magnitude remains uncertain. Key uncertainties include the possible role of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets and the amplitude of regional changes in sea level. In many areas, nonclimatic components of relative sea-level change (mainly subsidence) can also be locally appreciable. Although the impacts of sea-level rise are potentially large, the application and success of adaptation are large uncertainties that require more assessment and consideration.

http://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/328/5985/1517.full.pdf

Sea-Level Rise and Its Impact on Coastal Zones

[1] EGM2008 is a spherical harmonic model of the Earth's gravitational potential, developed by a least squares combination of the ITG-GRACE03S gravitational model and its associated error covariance matrix, with the gravitational information obtained from a global set of area-mean free-air gravity anomalies defined on a 5 arc-minute equiangular grid This grid was formed by merging terrestrial, altimetry-derived, and airborne gravity data Over areas where only lower resolution gravity data were available, their spectral content was supplemented with gravitational information implied by the topography EGM2008 is complete to degree and order 2159, and contains additional coefficients up to degree 2190 and order 2159 Over areas covered with high quality gravity data, the discrepancies between EGM2008 geoid undulations and independent GPS/Leveling values are on the order of ±5 to ±10 cm EGM2008 vertical deflections over USA and Australia are within ±11 to ±13 arc-seconds of independent astrogeodetic values These results indicate that EGM2008 performs comparably with contemporary detailed regional geoid models EGM2008 performs equally well with other GRACE-based gravitational models in orbit computations Over EGM96, EGM2008 represents improvement by a factor of six in resolution, and by factors of three to six in accuracy, depending on gravitational quantity and geographic area EGM2008 represents a milestone and a new paradigm in global gravity field modeling, by demonstrating for the first time ever, that given accurate and detailed gravimetric data, asingle global model may satisfy the requirements of a very wide range of applications

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2011JB008916

The development and evaluation of the Earth Gravitational Model 2008 (EGM2008)

Sicopolis-AD: Quick-Start Manual

The Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP)’s
central objective is to "enable a significant
improvement in environmental prediction
capabilities for the polar regions and
beyond, by coordinating a period of
intensive observing, modelling, prediction,
verification, user-engagement and
education activities".

/pdf/southern-ocean-community-comment-on-the-year-of-polar-25mqkglg9d.pdf

Southern Ocean community comment on the Year of Polar Prediction Implementation Plan

Preliminary results are presented from application of state estimation techniques to Atlantic Ocean circulation at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). An extended North Atlantic (33S to 75N) is modeled using the MIT General Circulation Model. ICE-5G 21K bathymetry and first guess atmospheric forcing fields from fully coupled CCSM3 LGM simulations are used. The model is least-squares fit to the proxies using an algorithm based on the model adjoint. A one-degree resolution, basin-scale setup was chosen so that the adjointed model remains efficient and processes that influence circulation over decades and longer are accessible.

/pdf/state-estimation-of-atlantic-ocean-circulation-at-the-last-40lkelstsm.pdf

State estimation of Atlantic Ocean circulation at the Last Glacial Maximum

Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO) Town Hall: The Latest Global Ocean and Sea Ice State Estimate from the ECCO Consortium

Modeling is an important tool for understanding AMOC on all timescales. Mechanistic studies of modern AMOC variability have been hampered by a lack of consistency between free-running models and the sensitivity of AMOC to resolution and parameterization. Recent work within the framework of the phase two Coordinated Ocean- Reference Experiments (CORE-II) addresses this issue head on, looking at model differences of AMOC mean state and interannual variability. One consistent feature across the models is that AMOC mean transport is related to mixed layer depths and Labrador Sea salt content, whereas interannual variability is primarily associated with Labrador Sea temperature anomalies. This is consistent with the hypothesized importance of salt balance for AMOC variability on geological timescales. The simulated relationships between AMOC and subsurface temperature anomalies in fully coupled climate models reveal subsurface AMOC fingerprints that could be used to reconstruct historical AMOC variations at low frequency.With the lack of long-term AMOC observations, models of ocean state that assimilate observational data have been explored as a way to reconstruct AMOC, but comparisons between models indicate they are quite variable in their AMOC representations. Karspeck et al. (2015) found that historical reconstructions of AMOC in such models are sensitive to the details of the data assimilation procedure. The ocean data assimilation community continues to address these issues through improved models and methods for estimating and representing error information.Two objectives of paleoclimate modeling are 1) to provide mechanistic information for interpretation of paleoclimate observations, and 2) to test the ability of predictive models to simulate Earth's climate under different background forcing states. In a good example of the first objective, Schmittner and Lund (2015) and Menviel et al. (2014) provided key information about the proxy signals expected under freshwater disturbance of AMOC, which were used to support the paleoclimate observations made by Henry et al. (2016). In an example of the second objective, Muglia and Schmittner (2015) analyzed Third Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP3) models of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and found consistently more intense and deeper AMOC transports relative to preindustrial simulations, counter to the paleoclimate consensus of LGM conditions, indicating that some processes are not well represented in the PMIP3 models. One challenge is to find adequate paleo observations against which to test these models. PMIP is now in phase 4 (part of CMIP6), which includes experiments covering five periods in Earth's history: the last millennium, last glacial maximum, last interglacial, and the mid-Pliocene. Newly compiled paleoclimate datasets from the PAGES2k project, more transient simulations, and participation of isotope enabled models planned for CMIP6PMIP4 will enable richer paleo data-model comparisons in the near future.

/pdf/connecting-paleo-and-modern-oceanographic-data-to-understand-9kc3d52g17.pdf

Patrick Heimbach

Papers

Sicopolis-AD: Quick-Start Manual

Southern Ocean community comment on the Year of Polar Prediction Implementation Plan

State estimation of Atlantic Ocean circulation at the Last Glacial Maximum

Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO) Town Hall: The Latest Global Ocean and Sea Ice State Estimate from the ECCO Consortium

Connecting paleo and modern oceanographic data to understand AMOC over decades to centuries