This chapter discusses leading problems linked to energy that the world is now confronting and to propose some ideas concerning possible solutions. Oil deserves special attention among all energy sources. Since the beginning of 1981, it has merely been continuing and enhancing the downward movement in consumption and prices caused by excessive rises, especially for light crudes such as those from Africa, and the slowing down of worldwide economic growth. Densely-populated oil-producing countries need to produce to live, to pay for their food and their equipment. If the economic growth of the industrialized countries were to be 4%, even if investment in the rational use of energy were pushed to the limit and the development of nonpetroleum energy sources were also pursued actively, it would be extremely difficult to prevent a sharp rise in prices. It is evident that it is absolutely necessary to pursue actively the development of coal, natural gas, and nuclear power if a physical shortage of energy is not to block economic growth.

World energy outlook

In order to better assess the role of agriculture within the global climate-vegetation system, we present a model of the managed planetary land surface, Lund-Potsdam-Jena managed Land (LPJmL), which simulates biophysical and biogeochemical processes as well as productivity and yield of the most important crops worldwide, using a concept of crop functional types (CFTs). Based on the LPJ-Dynamic Global Vegetation Model, LPJmL simulates the transient changes in carbon and water cycles due to land use, the specific phenology and seasonal CO2 fluxes of agricultural-dominated areas, and the production of crops and grazing land. It uses 13 CFTs (11 arable crops and two managed grass types), with specific parameterizations of phenology connected to leaf area development. Carbon is allocated daily towards four carbon pools, one being the yield-bearing storage organs. Management (irrigation, treatment of residues, intercropping) can be considered in order to capture their effect on productivity, on soil organic carbon and on carbon extracted from the ecosystem. For transient simulations for the 20th century, a global historical land use data set was developed, providing the annual cover fraction of the 13 CFTs, rain-fed and/or irrigated, within 0.5 degrees grid cells for the period 1901-2000, using published data on land use, crop distributions and irrigated areas. Several key results are compared with observations. The simulated spatial distribution of sowing dates for temperate cereals is comparable with the reported crop calendars. The simulated seasonal canopy development agrees better with satellite observations when actual cropland distribution is taken into account. Simulated yields for temperate cereals and maize compare well with FAO statistics. Monthly carbon fluxes measured at three agricultural sites also compare well with simulations. Global simulations indicate a similar to 24% (respectively similar to 10%) reduction in global vegetation (respectively soil) carbon due to agriculture, and 6-9 Pg C of yearly harvested biomass in the 1990s. In contrast to simulations of the potential natural vegetation showing the land biosphere to be an increasing carbon sink during the 20th century, LPJmL simulates a net carbon source until the 1970s (due to land use), and a small sink (mostly due to changing climate and CO2) after 1970. This is comparable with earlier LPJ simulations using a more simple land use scheme, and within the uncertainty range of estimates in the 1980s and 1990s. The fluxes attributed to land use change compare well with Houghton's estimates on the land use related fluxes until the 1970s, but then they begin to diverge, probably due to the different rates of deforestation considered. The simulated impacts of agriculture on the global water cycle for the 1990s are similar to 5% (respectively similar to 20%) reduction in transpiration (respectively interception), and similar to 44% increase in evaporation. Global runoff, which includes a simple irrigation scheme, is practically not affected. (Less)

Modelling the role of agriculture for the 20th century global terrestrial carbon balance

The paper reviews different approaches, technologies, and strategies to manage large-scale schemes of variable renewable electricity such as solar and wind power. We consider both supply and demand side measures. In addition to presenting energy system flexibility measures, their importance to renewable electricity is discussed. The flexibility measures available range from traditional ones such as grid extension or pumped hydro storage to more advanced strategies such as demand side management and demand side linked approaches, e.g. the use of electric vehicles for storing excess electricity, but also providing grid support services. Advanced batteries may offer new solutions in the future, though the high costs associated with batteries may restrict their use to smaller scale applications. Different “P2Y”-type of strategies, where P stands for surplus renewable power and Y for the energy form or energy service to which this excess in converted to, e.g. thermal energy, hydrogen, gas or mobility are receiving much attention as potential flexibility solutions, making use of the energy system as a whole. To “functionalize” or to assess the value of the various energy system flexibility measures, these need often be put into an electricity/energy market or utility service context. Summarizing, the outlook for managing large amounts of RE power in terms of options available seems to be promising.

https://research.aalto.fi/files/6557604/lund_et_al_review.pdf

Review of energy system flexibility measures to enable high levels of variable renewable electricity

https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01480573/document

Soil carbon 4 per mille

Progress in the area of MHD stability and disruptions, since the publication of the 1999 ITER Physics Basis document (1999 Nucl. Fusion 39 2137-2664), is reviewed. Recent theoretical and experimental research has made important advances in both understanding and control of MHD stability in tokamak plasmas. Sawteeth are anticipated in the ITER baseline ELMy H-mode scenario, but the tools exist to avoid or control them through localized current drive or fast ion generation. Active control of other MHD instabilities will most likely be also required in ITER. Extrapolation from existing experiments indicates that stabilization of neoclassical tearing modes by highly localized feedback-controlled current drive should be possible in ITER. Resistive wall modes are a key issue for advanced scenarios, but again, existing experiments indicate that these modes can be stabilized by a combination of plasma rotation and direct feedback control with non-axisymmetric coils. Reduction of error fields is a requirement for avoiding non-rotating magnetic island formation and for maintaining plasma rotation to help stabilize resistive wall modes. Recent experiments have shown the feasibility of reducing error fields to an acceptable level by means of non-axisymmetric coils, possibly controlled by feedback. The MHD stability limits associated with advanced scenarios are becoming well understood theoretically, and can be extended by tailoring of the pressure and current density profiles as well as by other techniques mentioned here. There have been significant advances also in the control of disruptions, most notably by injection of massive quantities of gas, leading to reduced halo current fractions and a larger fraction of the total thermal and magnetic energy dissipated by radiation. These advances in disruption control are supported by the development of means to predict impending disruption, most notably using neural networks. In addition to these advances in means to control or ameliorate the consequences of MHD instabilities, there has been significant progress in improving physics understanding and modelling. This progress has been in areas including the mechanisms governing NTM growth and seeding, in understanding the damping controlling RWM stability and in modelling RWM feedback schemes. For disruptions there has been continued progress on the instability mechanisms that underlie various classes of disruption, on the detailed modelling of halo currents and forces and in refining predictions of quench rates and disruption power loads. Overall the studies reviewed in this chapter demonstrate that MHD instabilities can be controlled, avoided or ameliorated to the extent that they should not compromise ITER operation, though they will necessarily impose a range of constraints.

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/0029-5515/47/6/S03/pdf

Chapter 3: MHD stability, operational limits and disruptions

http://pierrepinson.com/31761/Literature/foley2012.pdf

Current methods and advances in forecasting of wind power generation

New experiments on JET, COMPASS-D and DIII-D have identified the critical scalings of error field sensitivity and harmonic content effects, enabling predictions to be made of the requirements for larger devices such as ITER Thresholds are lowest at low density, a regime proposed for H mode access on ITER Results suggest a moderate error field sensitivity (δB/B ≈ 10-4) for ITER, comparable with the size of its intrinsic error, although there are uncertainties in scaling behaviour Other studies on COMPASS-D and DIII-D show that sideband harmonics to the (2, 1) component play an important role Thus, a correction system for ITER will be important, with flexibility to correct sidebands desirable, possibly assisted by beam rotation Such a system has been designed and is capable of reducing multiple harmonic error levels to ~ 2 × 10-5

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/0029-5515/39/11Y/323/pdf

Error field mode studies on JET, COMPASS-D and DIII-D, and implications for ITER

How much wind energy will be curtailed on the 2020 Irish power system

https://www.ucc.ie/en/media/research/hydromet/JaksicPaper.2006.pdf

Net ecosystem exchange of grassland in contrasting wet and dry years

Using both historic records and CORINE land cover maps, we assessed the impact of land cover change on the stock of soil organic carbon (SOC) in the Republic of Ireland from 1851 to 2000. We identified ten principal land cover classes: arable land, forest, grassland, heterogeneous agricultural areas/other, nonvegetated semi-natural areas, peatland, suburban, urban, water bodies, and wetland. For each land cover class, the SOC stock was estimated as the product of SOC density and land cover area. These were summed to calculate a national SOC budget for the Republic of Ireland. The Republic of Ireland’s 6.94 million hectares of land have undergone considerable change over the past 150 years. The most striking feature is the decrease in arable land from 1.44 million ha in 1851 to 0.55 million ha in 2000. Over the same time period, forested land increased by 0.53 million ha. As of 2000, agricultural lands including arable land (7.85%), grassland (54.33%), and the heterogeneous agricultural areas/other class (7.91%) account for 70.09% of Irish land cover. We estimate that the SOC stock in the Republic of Ireland, to 1 m depth, has increased from 1,391 Tg in 1851 to 1,469 Tg in 2000 despite soil loss due to urbanization. This increase is largely due to the increase of forested land with its higher SOC stocks when compared to agricultural lands. Peatlands contain a disproportionate quantity of the SOC stock. Although peatlands only occupy 17.36% of the land area, as of 2000, they represented 36% of the SOC stock (to 1 m depth).

https://www.ucc.ie/en/media/research/hydromet/EatonPaper.2008.pdf

Paul Leahy

Papers

Current methods and advances in forecasting of wind power generation

Error field mode studies on JET, COMPASS-D and DIII-D, and implications for ITER

How much wind energy will be curtailed on the 2020 Irish power system

Net ecosystem exchange of grassland in contrasting wet and dry years

Land cover change and soil organic carbon stocks in the Republic of Ireland 1851–2000