Preface to the Princeton Landmarks in Biology Edition vii Preface xi Symbols Used xiii 1. The Importance of Islands 3 2. Area and Number of Speicies 8 3. Further Explanations of the Area-Diversity Pattern 19 4. The Strategy of Colonization 68 5. Invasibility and the Variable Niche 94 6. Stepping Stones and Biotic Exchange 123 7. Evolutionary Changes Following Colonization 145 8. Prospect 181 Glossary 185 References 193 Index 201

The Theory of Island Biogeography

It has been 20 years since two seminal publications about ecosystem services came out: an edited book by Gretchen Daily and an article in Nature by a group of ecologists and economists on the value of the world’s ecosystem services. Both of these have been very highly cited and kicked off an explosion of research, policy, and applications of the idea, including the establishment of this journal. This article traces the history leading up to these publications and the subsequent debates, research, institutions, policies, on-the-ground actions, and controversies they triggered. It also explores what we have learned during this period about the key issues: from definitions to classification to valuation, from integrated modelling to public participation and communication, and the evolution of institutions and governance innovation. Finally, it provides recommendations for the future. In particular, it points to the weakness of the mainstream economic approaches to valuation, growth, and development. It concludes that the substantial contributions of ecosystem services to the sustainable wellbeing of humans and the rest of nature should be at the core of the fundamental change needed in economic theory and practice if we are to achieve a societal transformation to a sustainable and desirable future.

Twenty years of ecosystem services: How far have we come and how far do we still need to go?

Many definitions of food security exist, and these have been the subject of much debate. As early as 1992, Maxwell and Smith (1992) reviewed more than 180 items discussing concepts and definitions, and more definitions have been formulated since (DEFRA, 2006). Whereas many earlier definitions centered on food production, more recent definitions highlight access to food, in keeping with the 1996 World Food Summit definition (FAO, 1996) that food security is met when “all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life.” Worldwide attention on food access was given impetus by the food “price spike” in 2007–2008, triggered by a complex set of long- and short-term factors (FAO, 2009b; von Braun and Torero, 2009). FAO concluded, “provisional estimates show that, in 2007, 75 million more people were added to the total number of undernourished relative to 2003–05” (FAO, 2008); this is arguably a low-end estimate (Headey and Fan, 2010). More than enough food is currently produced per capita to feed the global population, yet about 870 million people remained hungry in the period from 2010 to 2012 (FAO et al., 2012). The questions for this chapter are how far climate and its change affect current food production systems and food security and the extent to which they will do so in the future (Figure 7-1).

Food security and food production systems

Losses of natural and semi-natural forests, mostly to agriculture, are a significant concern for biodiversity. Against this trend, the area of intensively managed plantation forests increases, and there is much debate about the implications for biodiversity. We provide a comprehensive review of the function of plantation forests as habitat compared with other land cover, examine the effects on biodiversity at the landscape scale, and synthesise context-specific effects of plantation forestry on biodiversity. Natural forests are usually more suitable as habitat for a wider range of native forest species than plantation forests but there is abundant evidence that plantation forests can provide valuable habitat, even for some threatened and endangered species, and may contribute to the conservation of biodiversity by various mechanisms. In landscapes where forest is the natural land cover, plantation forests may represent a low-contrast matrix, and afforestation of agricultural land can assist conservation by providing complementary forest habitat, buffering edge effects, and increasing connectivity. In contrast, conversion of natural forests and afforestation of natural non-forest land is detrimental. However, regional deforestation pressure for agricultural development may render plantation forestry a ‘lesser evil’ if forest managers protect indigenous vegetation remnants. We provide numerous context-specific examples and case studies to assist impact assessments of plantation forestry, and we offer a range of management recommendations. This paper also serves as an introduction and background paper to this special issue on the effects of plantation forests on biodiversity.

Plantation Forests and Biodiversity: Oxymoron or Opportunity?

We used field and laboratory measurements, geographic information systems, and simulation modeling to investigate the potential effects of accelerated sea-level rise on tidal marsh area and delivery of ecosystem ser- vices along the Georgia coast. Model simulations using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) mean and maximum estimates of sea-level rise for the year 2100 suggest that salt marshes will decline in area by 20% and 45%, respectively. The area of tidal freshwater marshes will increase by 2% under the IPCC mean scenario, but will decline by 39% under the maximum scenario. Delivery of ecosystem services associated with productivity (macrophyte biomass) and waste treatment (nitrogen accumulation in soil, potential denitrification) will also decline. Our findings suggest that tidal marshes at the lower and upper salinity ranges, and their attendant delivery of ecosystem services, will be most affected by accelerated sea- level rise, unless geomorphic conditions (ie gradual increase in elevation) enable tidal freshwater marshes to migrate inland, or vertical accretion of salt marshes to increase, to compensate for accelerated sea-level rise.

Forecasting the effects of accelerated sea‐level rise on tidal marsh ecosystem services

Bundling ecosystem services in Denmark: Trade-offs and synergies in a cultural landscape

Soil texture which is spatially variable in nature, is an important soil physical property that governs most physical, chemical, biological, and hydrological processes in soils. Detailed information on soil texture variability both in vertical and lateral dimensions is crucial for proper crop and land management and environmental studies, especially in Denmark where mechanized agriculture covers two thirds of the land area. We modeled the continuous depth function of texture distribution from 1958 Danish soil profiles (up to a 2-m depth) using equal-area quadratic splines and predicted clay, silt, fine sand, and coarse sand content at six standard soil depths of GlobalSoilMap project (0–5, 5–15, 15–30, 30–60, 60–100, and 100–200 cm) via regression rules using the Cubist data mining tool. Seventeen environmental variables were used as predictors and their strength of prediction was also calculated. For example, in the prediction of silt content at 0 to 5 cm depth, factors that registered a higher level of importance included the soil map scored (90%), landscape types (54%), and landuse (27%), while factors with lower scores were direct insolation (17%) and slope aspect (14%). Model validation (20% of the data selected randomly) showed a higher prediction performance in the upper depth intervals but increasing prediction error in the lower depth intervals (e.g., R² = 0.54, RMSE = 33.7 g kg⁻¹ for silt 0–5 cm and R² = 0.29, RMSE = 38.8 g kg⁻¹ from 100–200 cm). Danish soils have a high sand content (mean values for clay, silt, fine sand, and coarse sand content for 0- to 5-cm depth were 79, 84, 324, and 316 g kg⁻¹, respectively). Northern parts of the country have a higher content of fine sand compared to the rest of the study area, whereas in the western part of the country there was little clay but a high coarse sand content at all soil depths. The eastern and central parts of the country are rich in clay, but due to leaching, surface soils are clay eluviated with subsequent accumulation at lower depths. We found equal-area quadratic splines and regression rules to be promising tools for soil profile harmonization and spatial prediction of texture properties at national extentacross Denmark.

High-Resolution 3-D Mapping of Soil Texture in Denmark

At landscape and regional scales topography is recognized as one of the most important determinants of vascular plant diversity, primarily due to the infl uence of mountains. As temperature changes markedly over the elevation ranges in mountain areas, topography off ers a wide variety of diff erent habitats as well as buff ering against climate change. However, for local vegetation, notably in lowland areas, the general importance of topography is less well recognized and the mechanisms by which it exerts infl uence on local vascular plant diversity are not comprehensively understood. In this review, we provide an overview of the evidence for the diff erent mechanisms involved in topography ' s control of local patterns in potential vegetation drivers, namely incident solar energy, wind exposure, hydrology, geochemistry, and biotic conditions. Furthermore, we review the processes through which these factors shape local terrestrial vascular plant diversity patterns and provide directions for future studies on this topic. We fi nd that topography is an important factor for local vascular plant diversity patterns in a broad range of habitats throughout the world, even in relatively fl at lowlands. However, the mechanisms involved are varied and complex. Local patterns in soil moisture seem to be aff ected by topography through more mechanisms than other topographically controlled factors and have a strong and consistent infl uence on local plant diversity. Hence, local hydrology is probably the main mechanistic factor through which topography infl uences local terrestrial vascular plant diversity patterns. Future research should focus on employing high-coverage fi ne-resolution topographic data to comprehensively explore the role of topography in controlling local dynamics over large areas. Moreover, we recommend including several diff erent habitats, particularly those in which the role of topography is poorly understood. Finally, we propose to integrate relevant functional topographic variables such as topographic wetness indices instead of simple topographic measures into future investigations.

https://www.madalgo.au.dk/fileadmin/madalgo/OA_PDF_s/J88.pdf

Topography as a driver of local terrestrial vascular plant diversity patterns

Grasslands are recognized as biodiversity hotspots in Europe. However, protection and management of these habitats are currently constrained by a limited understanding of what determines local grassland plant diversity patterns. Here, we combined vegetation records (8,639 inventory plots) from 258 semi-natural grasslands with fine-resolution topographic data based on light detection and ranging technology to investigate the importance of topography—particularly topographically controlled soil moisture—for local and regional grassland plant diversity patterns across a 43,000 km2 lowland region (Denmark). Specifically, we examined the relationships between five vegetation measures representing species composition and richness as well as functional composition (Ellenberg indicator values) and four functional topographic factors representing topographic wetness, potential solar radiation, heat balance and wind exposure. Topography emerged as an important determinant of diversity patterns in both wet and dry grasslands throughout the study region, with topographic wetness being the strongest correlate of the main local (within-site) and regional (among-sites) gradients in species composition and species’ average preferences for soil moisture. Accordingly, topography plays an important role in shaping grassland plant diversity patterns both locally and regionally throughout this lowland European region, with this role mainly driven by topographically controlled soil moisture. These findings suggest hydrology to be important to consider in the planning and management of European grasslands.

https://www.madalgo.au.dk/fileadmin/madalgo/OA_PDF_s/J87.pdf

Peder Klith Bøcher

Papers

Bundling ecosystem services in Denmark: Trade-offs and synergies in a cultural landscape

High-Resolution 3-D Mapping of Soil Texture in Denmark

Topography as a driver of local terrestrial vascular plant diversity patterns

Topographically controlled soil moisture drives plant diversity patterns within grasslands

Predictive mapping of soil organic carbon in wet cultivated lands using classification-tree based models: the case study of Denmark.