Summary Background Since December, 2019, Wuhan, China, has experienced an outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Epidemiological and clinical characteristics of patients with COVID-19 have been reported but risk factors for mortality and a detailed clinical course of illness, including viral shedding, have not been well described. Methods In this retrospective, multicentre cohort study, we included all adult inpatients (≥18 years old) with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 from Jinyintan Hospital and Wuhan Pulmonary Hospital (Wuhan, China) who had been discharged or had died by Jan 31, 2020. Demographic, clinical, treatment, and laboratory data, including serial samples for viral RNA detection, were extracted from electronic medical records and compared between survivors and non-survivors. We used univariable and multivariable logistic regression methods to explore the risk factors associated with in-hospital death. Findings 191 patients (135 from Jinyintan Hospital and 56 from Wuhan Pulmonary Hospital) were included in this study, of whom 137 were discharged and 54 died in hospital. 91 (48%) patients had a comorbidity, with hypertension being the most common (58 [30%] patients), followed by diabetes (36 [19%] patients) and coronary heart disease (15 [8%] patients). Multivariable regression showed increasing odds of in-hospital death associated with older age (odds ratio 1·10, 95% CI 1·03–1·17, per year increase; p=0·0043), higher Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score (5·65, 2·61–12·23; p Interpretation The potential risk factors of older age, high SOFA score, and d-dimer greater than 1 μg/mL could help clinicians to identify patients with poor prognosis at an early stage. Prolonged viral shedding provides the rationale for a strategy of isolation of infected patients and optimal antiviral interventions in the future. Funding Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences Innovation Fund for Medical Sciences; National Science Grant for Distinguished Young Scholars; National Key Research and Development Program of China; The Beijing Science and Technology Project; and Major Projects of National Science and Technology on New Drug Creation and Development.

Clinical course and risk factors for mortality of adult inpatients with COVID-19 in Wuhan, China: a retrospective cohort study

In 1974 an article appeared in Science magazine with the dry-sounding title “Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases” by a pair of psychologists who were not well known outside their discipline of decision theory. In it Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman introduced the world to Prospect Theory, which mapped out how humans actually behave when faced with decisions about gains and losses, in contrast to how economists assumed that people behave. Prospect Theory turned Economics on its head by demonstrating through a series of ingenious experiments that people are much more concerned with losses than they are with gains, and that framing a choice from one perspective or the other will result in decisions that are exactly the opposite of each other, even if the outcomes are monetarily the same. Prospect Theory led cognitive psychology in a new direction that began to uncover other human biases in thinking that are probably not learned but are part of our brain’s wiring.

Thinking fast and slow.

https://cyberleninka.org/article/n/132565.pdf

Discovery and resupply of pharmacologically active plant-derived natural products: A review.

The Microbiome in Inflammatory Bowel Disease: Current Status and the Future Ahead

https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(08)60886-7.pdf

Behavioural strategies to reduce HIV transmission: how to make them work better

An increasing body of evidence shows that chronic inflammation causes and advances many common diseases. This opens new possibilities for treatment and therapy by blocking the inflammatory processes.

/pdf/the-inflammation-theory-of-disease-the-growing-realization-43mzg2jtxl.pdf

The inflammation theory of disease. The growing realization that chronic inflammation is crucial in many diseases opens new avenues for treatment.

The debate over a reproducibility crisis has been simmering for years now, amplified by growing concerns over a number of reproducibility studies that have failed to replicate previous positive results. Additional evidence from larger meta‐analysis of past papers also points to a lack of reproducibility in biomedical research with potentially dire consequences for drug development and investment into research. One of the largest meta‐analyses concluded that low levels of reproducibility, at best around 50% of all preclinical biomedical research, were delaying lifesaving therapies, increasing pressure on research budgets and raising costs of drug development [1]. The paper claimed that about US$28 billion a year was spent largely fruitlessly on preclinical research in the USA alone.

### A problem of statistics

However, the assertion that a 50% level of reproducibility equates to a crisis, or that many of the original studies were really fruitless, has been disputed by some specialists in replication. “A 50% level of reproducibility is generally reported as being bad, but that is a complete misconstrual of what to expect”, commented Jeffrey Mogil, who holds the Canada Research Chair in Genetics of Pain at McGill University in Montreal. “There is no way you could expect 100% reproducibility, and if you did, then the studies could not have been very good in the first place. If people could replicate published studies all the time then they could not have been cutting edge and pushing the boundaries”.

One reason not to expect 100% reproducibility in preclinical studies is that cutting edge or exploratory research deals with a lot of uncertainty and competing hypotheses of which only a few can be correct. After all, there would be no need to conduct experiments at all if the outcome were completely predictable. For that reason, initial preclinical study cannot be absolutely false or true, but must …

The reproducibility "crisis": Reaction to replication crisis should not stifle innovation.

There is no doubt that human civilization has had a negative impact on biodiversity, particularly since the industrial revolution. Overfishing and hunting, the destruction of habitats through agriculture and urban sprawl, the use of pesticides and herbicides, and the release of other toxic compounds into the environment have all taken their toll, particularly on vertebrates. The World Conservation Union (IUCN; Gland, Switzerland) now includes more than 16,000 entries in its Red List of Threatened Species: 5,624 vertebrates, 2,101 invertebrates and 8,390 plants (IUCN, 2006). The number of documented extinctions since 1500 AD is now 784 species and the IUCN estimates that extinction rates are now 50 to 500 times higher than previous rates calculated from the fossil record (Baillie et al , 2004).

But it's not all bad news. Many animal and plant species have adapted to the new stresses, food sources, predators and threats in urban and suburban environments, where they thrive in close proximity to humans. Their success provides researchers with valuable—and sometimes unexpected—insights into evolutionary and selective processes. Because these adaptations have had to be rapid, cities are, in some respects, ideal laboratories for studying natural selection.

The study of adaptation to human habitats also yields vital information for conservation efforts and helps to soften the environmental impact of business parks, housing, roads and waterways. In fact, these types of construction can even enhance biodiversity and encourage species to colonize urban areas by creating ecological corridors and networks to circumvent obstacles, thereby providing access to favourable habitats. Small mammals, for example, can cross major roads and railways by using dedicated pathways that are constructed within existing tunnels or bridges. Furthermore, urbanization does not preclude the development of teeming habitats; rather than being confined to remote areas and wildlife parks, they can be found in densely populated areas, …

/pdf/the-human-impact-on-biological-diversity-how-species-adapt-4gr3sbymzg.pdf

The human impact on biological diversity. How species adapt to urban challenges sheds light on evolution and provides clues about conservation.

Many philosophers and anthropologists might argue that among the attributes that make humans unique, it is our ability to reason morally that sets us apart from all other animals—perhaps in addition to our capacity for spirituality. From Ancient Greece and the Roman Republic, to sixth century China and the European Enlightenment; philosophers throughout the ages have pondered why humans can feel empathy or behave altruistically—and, indeed, why they even contemplate it. Only later, in the twentieth century, did the biological sciences join the quest for understanding by seeking genetic, neurological and evolutionary explanations of self‐awareness and morality.

The answer has so far been elusive, as biologists have neither been able to find the 'moral' gene—if such a thing exists—nor to identify a specific cluster of neurons or region of the brain that takes care of ethical decision making. Yet, some parts of the picture are emerging and they reveal a relationship between the complex emotional processes that enable empathy and altruism and the advanced cognitive abilities, such as mirror self‐recognition (MSR), that emerged with the evolution of the more complex structural and functional components of the brain. In addition, these studies show that many more animal species than we had appreciated, including birds, display more or less primitive versions of these traits.

These findings have led to a proliferation of research into 'human‐like' social behaviour in animals. “Empathy research is really taking off, not only on adult humans in neuroscience or on children, but also animals,” commented Dutch primatologist Frans de Waal, now at Emory University in Atlanta, GA, USA, who analyses the behaviour of chimpanzees to gain insight into their emotional and cognitive abilities. “We have collected thousands of observations of so‐called consolation behaviour in chimpanzees. As soon as one among them is distressed, for example losing a fight, …

/pdf/the-basis-of-morality-psychologists-anthropologists-and-3i18r88wlg.pdf

The basis of morality. Psychologists, anthropologists and biologists are uncovering the bigger picture behind the development of empathy and altruism.

The element boron is not renowned among biologists, short of a few specialists who know that it is an essential nutrient for plants and an element in boromycin—an antibiotic compound produced by Streptomyces . Yet, on the whole, molecular biologists and, in particular, those in drug development seem to have little use for carbon's left‐hand neighbour in the periodic table. This is about to change. Currently, boron is largely produced in Turkey and the USA, and is used in a wide range of products, including glass, detergents, fire retardants, fibres to reinforce plane fuselages and body armour, and in superhard materials. Now, both researchers and the pharmaceutical industry are showing an increasing interest in boron as an alternative to carbon in drug design.

> …both researchers and the pharmaceutical industry are showing an increasing interest in boron as an alternative to carbon in drug design

A series of recent scientific and commercial developments indicate that boron‐based compounds are interesting drug candidates against all disease categories and might even speed up drug development. Pharmaceutical companies have already increased their boron research, particularly GlaxoSmithKline (GSK; Brentford, UK), which announced a US$2.5 billion investment in the US company Anacor (Palo Alto, CA, USA) in November 2008. Anacor was founded in 2002 to develop boron‐based antibacterial drugs, but has since expanded into antivirals and other targets with its boron‐based platform. Co‐founders Lucy Shapiro and Stephen Benkovic began collaborating in 2001 to look for novel inhibitors of several newly identified bacterial target sites that, they thought, could lead to more effective antibiotics. “They randomly inserted boron and got good activity,” said David Perry, CEO of Anacor. This serendipitous discovery led to the formation of Anacor a year later. “We were lucky,” Perry conceded. “At that stage we had no idea what the broader potential of boron …

/pdf/not-boring-at-all-boron-is-the-new-carbon-in-the-quest-for-1hzyrlaxtr.pdf

Philip Hunter

Papers

The inflammation theory of disease. The growing realization that chronic inflammation is crucial in many diseases opens new avenues for treatment.

The reproducibility "crisis": Reaction to replication crisis should not stifle innovation.

The human impact on biological diversity. How species adapt to urban challenges sheds light on evolution and provides clues about conservation.

The basis of morality. Psychologists, anthropologists and biologists are uncovering the bigger picture behind the development of empathy and altruism.

Not boring at all. Boron is the new carbon in the quest for novel drug candidates.