This paper reviews the current state of observational, theoretical, and modeling knowledge of the midlatitude storm tracks of the Northern Hemisphere cool season. Observed storm track structures and variations form the first part of the review. The climatological storm track structure is described, and the seasonal, interannual, and interdecadal storm track variations are discussed. In particular, the observation that the Pacific storm track exhibits a marked minimum during midwinter when the background baroclinicity is strongest, and a new finding that storm tracks exhibit notable variations in their intensity on decadal timescales, are highlighted as challenges that any comprehensive storm track theory or model has to be able to address. Physical processes important to storm track dynamics make up the second part of the review. The roles played by baroclinic processes, linear instability, downstream development, barotropic modulation, and diabatic heating are discussed. Understanding of these processes forms the core of our current theoretical knowledge of storm track dynamics, and provides a context within which both observational and modeling results can be interpreted. The eddy energy budget is presented to show that all of these processes are important in the maintenance of the storm tracks. The final part of the review deals with the ability to model storm tracks. The success as well as remaining problems in idealized storm track modeling, which is based on a linearized dynamical system, are discussed. Perhaps on a more pragmatic side, it is pointed out that while the current generation of atmospheric general circulation models faithfully reproduce the climatological storm track structure, and to a certain extent, the seasonal and ENSO-related interannual variations of storm tracks, in-depth comparisons between observed and modeled storm track variations are still lacking.

Storm Track Dynamics

A significant number of tropical cyclones move into the midlatitudes and transform into extratropical cyclones. This process is generally referred to as extratropical transition (ET). During ET a cyclone frequently produces intense rainfall and strong winds and has increased forward motion, so that such systems pose a serious threat to land and maritime activities. Changes in the structure of a system as it evolves from a tropical to an extratropical cyclone during ET necessitate changes in forecast strategies. In this paper a brief climatology of ET is given and the challenges associated with forecasting extratropical transition are described in terms of the forecast variables (track, intensity, surface winds, precipitation) and their impacts (flooding, bush fires, ocean response). The problems associated with the numerical prediction of ET are discussed. A comprehensive review of the current understanding of the processes involved in ET is presented. Classifications of extratropical transition ...

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The extratropical transition of tropical cyclones : forecast challenges, current understanding, and future directions

A novel method is introduced to generate climatological frequency distributions of meteorological features from gridded datasets. The method is used here to derive a climatology of extratropical cyclones from sea level pressure (SLP) fields. A simple and classical conception of cyclones is adopted where a cyclone is identified as the finite area that surrounds a local SLP minimum and is enclosed by the outermost closed SLP contour. This cyclone identification procedure can be applied to individual time instants, and climatologies of cyclone frequency, fc, are obtained by simple time averaging. Therefore, unlike most other climatologies, the method is not based on the application of a tracking algorithm and considers the size of cyclones. In combination with a conventional cyclone center tracking algorithm that allows the determination of cyclone life times and the location of cyclogenesis and cyclolysis, additional frequency fields can be obtained for special categories of cyclones that are gener...

Surface Cyclones in the ERA-40 Dataset (1958–2001). Part I: Novel Identification Method and Global Climatology

In this paper a 55-yr (1948–2002) Northern Hemisphere blocking climatology is presented. Traditional blocking indices and methodologies are revised and a new blocking detection method is designed. This algorithm detects blocked flows and provides for a better characterization of blocking events with additional information on blocking parameters such as the location of the blocking center, the intensity, and extension. Additionally, a new tracking procedure has been incorporated following simultaneously the individual evolution of blocked flows and identifying coherently persistent blocked patterns. Using this method, the longest known Northern Hemisphere blocking climatology is obtained and compared with previous studies. A new regional classification into four independent blocking sectors has been obtained based on the seasonally preferred regions of blocking formation: Atlantic (ATL), European (EUR), West Pacific (WPA), and East Pacific (EPA). Global and regional blocking characteristics have been described, examining their variability from the seasonal to interdecadal scales. The global long-term blocking series in the North Hemisphere showed a significant trend toward weaker and less persistent events, as well as regional increases (decreases) in blocking frequency over the WPA (ATL and EUR) sector. The influence of teleconnection patterns (TCPs) on blocking parameters is also explored, being confined essentially to wintertime, except in the WPA sector. Additionally, regional blocking parameters, especially frequency and duration, are sensitive to regional TCPs, supporting the regional classification obtained in this paper. The ENSO-related blocking variability is evident in blocking intensities and preferred locations but not in frequency. Finally, the dynamical connection between blocking occurrence and regional TCPs is examined through the conceptual model proposed by Charney and DeVore. Observational evidence of a dynamical link between the asymmetrical temperature distributions induced by TCPs and blocking variability is provided with a distinctive contrast “warm ocean/cold land” pattern favoring the blocking occurrence in winter. However, the conceptual model is not coherent in the WPA sector, suggesting different blocking mechanisms operating in this sector.

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A Climatology of Northern Hemisphere Blocking

There are at least three independent ways in which the solar wind modulates the flow of current density (Jz) in the global electric circuit. These are (A) changes in the galactic cosmic ray energy spectrum, (B) changes in the precipitation of relativistic electrons from the magnetosphere, and (C) changes in the ionospheric potential distribution in the polar caps due to magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling. The current density J
z flows between the ionosphere and the surface, and as it passes through conductivity gradients it generates space charge concentrations dependent on J
z and the conductivity gradient. The gradients are large at the surfaces of clouds and space charge concentrations of order 1000 to 10,000 elementary charges per cm3 can be generated at cloud tops. The charge transfers to droplets, many of which are evaporating at the cloud-clear air interface. The charge remains on the residual evaporation nuclei with a lifetime against leakage of order 1000 sec, and for a longer period the nuclei also retain coatings of sulfate and organic compounds adsorbed by the droplet while in the cloud. The charged evaporation nuclei become well mixed with more droplets in many types of clouds with penetrative mixing. The processes of entrainment and evaporation are also efficient for these clouds. The collection of such nuclei by nearby droplets is greatly increased by the electrical attraction between the charge on the particle and the image charge that it creates on the droplet. This process is called electroscavenging. Because the charge on the evaporation nuclei is derived from the original space charge, it depends on J
z, giving a rate of electroscavenging responsive to the solar wind inputs. There may be a number of ways in which the electroscavenging has consequences for weather and climate. One possibility is enhanced production of ice. The charged evaporation nuclei have been found to be good ice forming nuclei because of their coatings, and so in supercooled clouds droplet freezing can occur by contact ice nucleation, as the evaporation nuclei are electroscavenged. Although quantitative models for the all the cloud microphysical processes that may be involved have not yet been produced, we show that for many clouds, especially those with broad droplet size distributions, relatively high droplet concentrations, and cloud top temperatures just below freezing, this process is likely to dominate over other primary ice nucleation processes. In these cases there are likely to be effects on cloud albedo and rates of sedimentation of ice, and these will depend on J
z. For an increase in ice production in thin clouds such as altocumulus or stratocumulus the main effect is a decrease in albedo to incoming solar radiation, and in opacity to outgoing longwave radiation. At low latitudes the surface and troposphere heat, and at high latitudes in winter they cool. The change in meridional temperature gradient affects the rate of cyclogenesis, and the amplitude of planetary waves. For storm clouds, as in winter cyclones, the effect of increased ice formation is mainly to increase the rate of glaciation of lower level clouds by the seeder-feeder process. The increase in precipitation efficiency increases the rate of transfer of latent heat between the air mass and the surface. In most cyclones this is likely to result in intensification, producing changes in the vorticity area index as observed. Cyclone intensification also increases the amplitude of planetary waves, and shifts storm tracks, as observed. In this paper we first describe the production of space charge and the way in which it may influence the rate of ice nucleation. Then we review theory and observations of the solar wind modulation of J
z, and the correlated changes in atmospheric temperature and dynamics in the troposphere. The correlations are present for each input, (A, B, and C), and the detailed patterns of responses provide support for the inferred electrical effects on the physics of clouds, affecting precipitation, temperature and dynamics.

Influence of Solar Wind on the Global Electric Circuit, and Inferred Effects on Cloud Microphysics, Temperature, and Dynamics in the Troposphere

Blocking anticyclones have long been of interest to the atmospheric science community because of their profound effect on local and regional climates. Previous climatologies of blocking anticyclones have been performed using subjective or objective techniques to locate individual blocking events using observational data sets typically of greater than 10 years. In this study, a 3-year climatology of Northern Hemisphere blocking anticyclones was developed using ECMWF analyses to derive a comprehensive set of blocking anticyclone characteristics, including location, frequency, duration, intensity, size, seasonal and regional distribution, and relationship to precursor cyclones and jet streaks. Results show that preferred blocking regions were located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean, the Pacific Ocean, and the Ukraine/western Russia and that most blocks occurred in winter, as seen in other climatological studies. Block half-wavelengths, which averaged about 3000 km, were positively correlated with block intensity at the 99% confidence level. However, block duration, which averaged 8.6 days, was only weakly correlated with both size and intensity. Also, this study reveals that all 63 blocking anticyclones were preceded by an identifiable surface cyclone, which began its most rapid deepening 36 h or more prior to block onset. However, only 34 of these cyclones could be characterized as “explosively” developing, with half of these preceding winter season blocks and none preceding summer season blocks. A positive correlation was found between the intensity of blocking anticyclones and the intensity of the precursor cyclone development, significant at the 95% confidence level. This correlation was also found for events occurring over the oceanic regions. Finally, the intensity of the precursor cyclone development was correlated with other blocking characteristics and no significant relationships were found. DOI: 10.1034/j.1600-0870.1995.t01-3-00004.x

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Climatological features of blocking anticyclones in the Northern Hemisphere

The period 19–21 January 1979 marked the development of a blocking anticyclone over the North Atlantic Ocean preceded by explosive cyclogenesis about 500 km south of Nova Scotia. Using fields derived from GLA analyzes (4° lat × 5° long) of the FGGE SOP-I data set, the general behavior of this block is diagnosed using the extended height tendency equation. This equation preserves much of the simplicity of the quasi-geostrophic form, but replaces the geostrophic wind and relative vorticity by the observed value. Three-dimensionally varying static stability and strong diabatic heating are also allowed in the extended form. To further analyze the relative importance of planetary-scale, synoptic-scale, and scale-interaction forcing of this block, height tendencies were solved from a scale-partitioned form of height tendency equation. The scale partitioning is accomplished using the Barnes objective analysis scheme. Results indicate that vorticity advection was the primary forcing mechanism during the block development. Growth in this mechanism occurred during and extended beyond the period of explosive cyclogenesis and was located downstream from the cyclone event. In fact, much of the vorticity advection was attributed to the northward advection of negative relative vorticity east of a jet streak that formed between the cyclone and anticyclone. The scale interactions implied by this relationship between the cyclone and anticyclone were confirmed in the partitioned height tendencies. The scale interaction component was consistently larger than the other two and was particularly significant during the block development. This component was followed in importance by the synoptic-scale component, although the latter was significant only in the vorticity advection term. Interestingly, despite pronounced northward warm air advection, the direct forcing of the block by thermal advection was relatively small. Rather, the thermal forcing was strongest in the upstream cyclone, which in view of the subsequent role of scale interactions in the block development suggests an indirect role for thermal advection. DOI: 10.1034/j.1600-0870.1990.00015.x

The role of synoptic/planetary-scale interactions during the development of a blocking anticyclone

This paper examines the 24-h explosive development periods of two extratropical cyclones, the first occurring over the Gulf Stream off the coast of New England from 18 to 19 January 1979 and the second occurring over the southeastern United States from 20 to 21 January 1979 The data used in this study are the First GARP (Global Atmospheric Research Program) Global Experiment (FGGE) level IIIb (SOP I) global analyses on a 4 deg latitude x 5 deg longitude grid The parameter used to diagnose development is the geostrophic relative vorticity tendency calculated using an extended form of the Zwack-Okossi development equation This development equation is similar to the Petterssen-Sutcliffe development equation, but is shown to be more complete by explicitly coupling surface development with forcing at all levels above the surface Cyclonic-vorticity advection, warm-air advection, and latent heat release act to develop the two cyclones, while adiabatic cooling in the ascending air opposes development Further, vertical profiles of the development quantities for these two cases reveal that vorticity and temperature advection maximize in the 200-300-mb layer, while the latent heat release maximum is typically below 500 mb

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A Diagnosis of the Explosive Development of Two Extratropical Cyclones

The formation of a blocking anticyclone over the North Atlantic has been examined over its entire life-CyCle using the Zwack-Okossi (Z-O) equation as the diagnostic tool. This blocking anticyclone occurred in late October and early November of 1985. The data used were provided by the NASA Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres on a global 2.O degree latitude by 2.5 degree longitudinal grid. The horizontal distribution of the atmospheric forcing mechanisms that were important to 500 mb block formation, maintenance and decay were examined. A scale-partitioned form of the Z-O equation was then used to examine the relative importance of forcing on the planetary and synoptic scales, and their interactions. As seen in previous studies, the results presented here show that upper tropospheric anticyclonic vorticity advection was the most important contributor to block formation and maintenance. However, adiabatic warming, and vorticity tilting were also important at various times during the block lifetime. In association with precursor surface cyclogenesis, the 300 mb jet streak in the downstream (upstream) from a long-wave trough (ridge) amplified significantly. This strengthening of the jet streak enhanced the anti-cyclonic vorticity advection field that aided the amplification of a 500 mb short-wave ridge. Tile partitioned height tendency results demonstrate that the interactions between the planetary and sn,noptic-scale through vorticity advection was the most important contributor to block formation. Planetary-scale, synoptic-scale. and their interactions contributed weakly to the maintenance of the blocking anticyclone with the advection of synoptic-scale vorticity by the planetary-scale flow playing a more important role. Planetary-scale decay ofthe long-wave ridge contributed to the demise of this blocking event.

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Planetary and synoptic-scale interactions during the life cycle of a mid-latitude blocking anticyclone over the North Atlantic

Energy budget equations applicable to any limited atmospheric region are developed employing the concept of available potential energy. These equations contain, in addition to the customary generation, conversion, and dissipation terms, expressions for the boundary fluxes. Utilizing Lorenz's definition of available potential energy, the energetics of the limited region are defined as the contribution that the region makes to the global energy budget. This allows one to examine energy processes in a limited region in terms of their relation to the energetics of the general circulation. DOI: 10.1111/j.2153-3490.1969.tb00432.x

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/j.2153-3490.1969.tb00432.x

Phillip J. Smith

Papers

Climatological features of blocking anticyclones in the Northern Hemisphere

The role of synoptic/planetary-scale interactions during the development of a blocking anticyclone

A Diagnosis of the Explosive Development of Two Extratropical Cyclones

Planetary and synoptic-scale interactions during the life cycle of a mid-latitude blocking anticyclone over the North Atlantic

On the contribution of a limited region to the global energy budget