This paper estimates the long-term effects of the global recession of 2008-2009 on output in 23 countries I measure these effects by comparing current estimates of potential output from the OECD and IMF to the path that potential was following in 2007, according to estimates at the time The losses in potential output range from almost nothing in Australia and Switzerland to more than 30% in Greece, Hungary, and Ireland; the average loss, weighted by economy size, is 84% Most countries have experienced strong hysteresis effects: shortfalls of actual output from pre-recession trends have reduced potential output almost one-for-one In the hardest-hit economies, the current growth rate of potential is depressed, implying that the level of lost potential is growing over time

Long-Term Damage from the Great Recession in OECD Countries

Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities. The large number of forecasting applications calls for a diverse set of forecasting methods to tackle real-life challenges. This article provides a non-systematic review of the theory and the practice of forecasting. We provide an overview of a wide range of theoretical, state-of-the-art models, methods, principles, and approaches to prepare, produce, organise, and evaluate forecasts. We then demonstrate how such theoretical concepts are applied in a variety of real-life contexts. 
We do not claim that this review is an exhaustive list of methods and applications. However, we wish that our encyclopedic presentation will offer a point of reference for the rich work that has been undertaken over the last decades, with some key insights for the future of forecasting theory and practice. Given its encyclopedic nature, the intended mode of reading is non-linear. We offer cross-references to allow the readers to navigate through the various topics. We complement the theoretical concepts and applications covered by large lists of free or open-source software implementations and publicly-available databases.

Forecasting: theory and practice

High-frequency volatility connectedness between the US crude oil market and China's agricultural commodity markets

Time-frequency contained co-movement of crude oil and world food prices: A wavelet-based analysis

https://repositorio-aberto.up.pt/bitstream/10216/71284/2/40458.pdf

The yield curve and the macro-economy across time and frequencies

Co-movement of major energy, agricultural, and food commodity price returns: A time-series assessment

We analyze the second-moment properties of the components of international capital flows and their relationship to business cycle variables (output, investment, and real interest rate) in 22 industrial and emerging countries. Total inward flows are procyclical with respect to all three macro variables. Net outward flows are countercyclical with respect to output and investment in most industrial and emerging countries. Disaggregated inward flows positively comove with output in industrial countries and with investment and the real interest rate in the G7 economies. Inward foreign direct investment is the only non-procyclical type of inward capital flows (with respect to output) in the developing economies. Formal statistical tests based on nonparametric bootstrap techniques detect significant variance increases in all G7 countries' disaggregated capital flows over exogenous and endogenously estimated breaks.

/pdf/the-cyclical-properties-of-disaggregated-capital-flows-2zogyvpit3.pdf

The Cyclical Properties of Disaggregated Capital Flows

https://scholarship.claremont.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1013&context=pomona_fac_econ

The international spread of COVID-19 stock market collapses

The cyclical properties of disaggregated capital flows

This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the degree of co-movement among the nominal price returns of 11 major energy, agricultural and food commodities based on monthly data between 1970 and 2013. A uniform-spacings testing approach, a multivariate dynamic conditional correlation model and a rolling regression procedure are used to study the extent and the time-evolution of unconditional and conditional correlations. The results indicate that (i) the price returns of energy and agricultural commodities are highly correlated; (ii) the overall level of co-movement among commodities increased in recent years, especially between energy and agricultural commodities and in particular in the cases of maize and soybean oil, which are important inputs in the production of biofuels; and (iii) particularly after 2007, stock market volatility is positively associated with the co-movement of price returns across markets.

/pdf/co-movement-of-major-commodity-price-returns-time-series-v5tobz9s96.pdf

Pierangelo De Pace

Papers

Co-movement of major energy, agricultural, and food commodity price returns: A time-series assessment

The Cyclical Properties of Disaggregated Capital Flows

The international spread of COVID-19 stock market collapses

The cyclical properties of disaggregated capital flows

Co-movement of major commodity price returns : time-series assessment