Showing papers by "Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas published in 1999"
Posted Content•
TL;DR: This paper employed cohort technique and consumer expenditure survey data to construct average age-profiles of consumption and income over the working lives of typical households across different education and occupation groups, using these profiles, they estimate a structural model of optimal life-cycle consumption expenditures in the presence of realistic labour income uncertainty.
Abstract: This paper employs cohort technique and Consumer Expenditure Survey data to construct average age-profiles of consumption and income over the working lives of typical households across different education and occupation groups. Using these profiles, we estimate a structural model of optimal life-cycle consumption expenditures in the presence of realistic labour income uncertainty. The model fits the profiles quite well. In addition to providing tight estimates of the discount rate and risk aversion, we find that consumer behaviour changes strikingly over the life-cycle. Young consumers behave as buffer-stock agents. Around the age of 40, the typical household starts accumulating liquid assets for retirement and its behaviour mimics more closely that of a certainty equivalent consumer. This change in behaviour is mostly driven by the life-cycle profile of expected income. Our methodology provides a natural decomposition of saving into its precautionary and retirement components.
628 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the impact of exchange rate #uctuations on inter- and intrasectoral job reallocation is evaluated. And the model predicts a b F31; F4; J4; E24.
129 citations
01 Jan 1999
TL;DR: In this paper, a broad sample of lending boom episodes over the last 40 years was used to investigate whether lending booms are associated with output gains and increase the vulnerability of the banking sector and the balance of payments to crisis.
Abstract: Recent theories of crisis put lending booms at the root ofnancial collapses. Yet lending booms may be a natural consequence of economic development and °uctua- tions. So are lending booms dangerous? This paper investigates empirically this question using a broad sample of lending boom episodes over the last 40 years. The results indicate that (1) lending booms are associated with output gains (unconditionally), (2) lending booms increase the vulnerability of the banking sector and the balance of payments to crisis.
52 citations
Posted Content•
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors evaluate empirically and theoretically the importance of exchange rate movements on job reallocation across and within sectors and find that exchange rates have a significant effect of gross and net job flows in the traded goods sector.
Abstract: Currency fluctuations provide a substantial source of movements in relative prices that is largely exogenous to the firm. This paper evaluates empirically and theoretically the importance of exchange rate movements on job reallocation across and within sectors. The objective is (1) to provide accurate estimates of the impact of exchange rate fluctuations and (2) to further our understanding of how reallocative shocks propagate through the economy. The empirical results indicate that exchange rates have a significant effect of gross and net job flows in the traded goods sector. Moreover, the paper finds that job creation and destruction comove positively, following a real exchange rate shock. Appreciations are associated with additional turbulence, and depreciations with a existing non-representative agent reallocation models have a hard time replicating the salient features of the data. The results indicate a strong tension between the positive comovements of gross flows in response to reallocative disturbances and the negative comovement in response to aggregate shocks.
23 citations