There is, I think, something ethereal about i —the square root of minus one. I remember first hearing about it at school. It seemed an odd beast at that time—an intruder hovering on the edge of reality.

Usually familiarity dulls this sense of the bizarre, but in the case of i it was the reverse: over the years the sense of its surreal nature intensified. It seemed that it was impossible to write mathematics that described the real world in …

I and i

Sustainability assessment is being increasingly viewed as an important tool to aid in the shift towards sustainability. However, this is a new and evolving concept and there remain very few examples of effective sustainability assessment processes implemented anywhere in the world. Sustainability assessment is often described as a process by which the implications of an initiative on sustainability are evaluated, where the initiative can be a proposed or existing policy, plan, programme, project, piece of legislation, or a current practice or activity. However, this generic definition covers a broad range of different processes, many of which have been described in the literature as 'sustainability assessment'. This article seeks to provide some clarification by reflecting on the different approaches described in the literature as being forms of sustainability assessment, and evaluating them in terms of their potential contributions to sustainability. Many of these are actually examples of 'integrated assessment', derived from environmental impact assessment (EIA) and strategic environmental assessment (SEA), but which have been extended to incorporate social and economic considerations as well as environmental ones, reflecting a 'triple bottom line' (TBL) approach to sustainability. These integrated assessment processes typically either seek to minimise 'unsustainability', or to achieve TBL objectives. Both aims may, or may not, result in sustainable practice. We present an alternative conception of sustainability assessment, with the more ambitious aim of seeking to determine whether or not an initiative is actually sustainable. We term such processes 'assessment for sustainability'. 'Assessment for sustainability' firstly requires that the concept of sustainability be well-defined. The article compares TBL approaches and principles-based approaches to developing such sustainability criteria, concluding that the latter are more appropriate, since they avoid many of the inherent limitations of the triple-bottom-line as a conception of sustainability.

Conceptualising sustainability assessment

Purpose – The paper aims to review all the techniques for developing scenarios that have appeared in the literature, along with comments on their utility, strengths and weaknesses. Design/methodology/approach – The study was carried out through an electronic search using internet search engines and online databases and indexes. Findings – The paper finds eight categories of techniques that include a total of 23 variations used to develop scenarios. There are descriptions and evaluations for each. Practical implications – Futurists can use this list to broaden their repertoire of scenario techniques. Originality/value – Scenario development is the stock-in-trade of futures studies, but no catalog of the techniques used has yet been published. This list is the start at developing a consensus list of techniques that can be refined as the field matures.

https://training.fws.gov/courses/alc/alc3194/resources/publications/scenario-planning/Bishop_et_al_2007.pdf

The current state of scenario development: an overview of techniques

This study proposes an approach for visualizing a knowledge structure, the proposed approach creates a three-dimensional “Research focused parallelship network”, a “Keyword Co-occurrence Network”, and a two-dimensional knowledge map to facilitate visualization of the knowledge structure created by journal papers from different perspectives. The networks and knowledge maps can be depicted differently by choosing different information as the network actor, e.g. author, institute or country keyword, to reflect knowledge structures in micro-, meso-, and macro-levels, respectively. Technology Foresight is selected as an example to illustrate the method proposed in this study. A total of 556 author keywords contained in 181 Technology Foresight related papers have been analyzed. European countries, China, India and Brazil are located at the core of Technology Foresight research. Quantitative ways of mapping journal papers are investigated in this study to unveil emerging elements as well as to demonstrate dynamics and visualization of knowledge. The quantitative method provided in this paper shows a possible way of visualizing and evaluating knowledge structure; thus a computerized calculation is possible for potential quantitative applications, e.g. R&D resource allocation, research performance evaluation, science map, etc.

https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2Fs11192-010-0259-8.pdf

Mapping knowledge structure by keyword co-occurrence: a first look at journal papers in Technology Foresight

Purpose – This paper addresses a challenging topic, which in both academic and professional literatures has been widely discussed but mainly from one single angle – that is, how to select foresight methods. From that point of view researchers and consultants promote (even if unintentionally) the use of particular methods. Here the question of selection is raised from a different perspective: how are foresight methods selected?Design/methodology/approach – The guiding “theory” is that a better understanding of the fundamental attributes of foresight methods and their linkages to the core phases of a foresight process, together with the identification of possible patterns in the selection of methods, will provide useful insights as to how the selection of methods is carried out.Findings – So far the selection of foresight methods has been dominated by the intuition, insight, impulsiveness and – sometimes – inexperience or irresponsibility of practitioners and organisers. This paper reveals that the selectio...

How are foresight methods selected

Chapters contributed are:
I. Miles, J. Cassingena Harper, L. Georghiou, M. Keenan and R. Popper 2008; The Many Faces of Foresight Chapter 1, pp3-23; I. Miles 2008, From Futures to Foresight, Chapter 2 pp24-43; M.Keenan and I. Miles 2008, Foresight in the UK Chapter 4 pp91-111; M.Keenan and I. Miles 2008, Scoping and Planning Foresight, Chapter 15 pp342-375; I. Miles, J. Cassingena Harper, L. Georghiou, M. Keenan and R. Popper 2008, New Frontiers: Emerging Foresight, Chapter 17 pp400-418

The Handbook of Technology Foresight - Concepts and Practice

Mapping Foresight: Revealing how Europe and other world regions navigate into the future

The Many Faces of Foresight

– The paper sets out to explore the nature and degree of variation in foresight “style” across six world regions. The underlying hypothesis is that differences in regional context – in terms of political, socio‐economic, and cultural conditions – will affect foresight “style”. At the same time, a secondary hypothesis acknowledges that policy tool transfer and international learning might soften the influence of contextual conditions., – Using the data collected for more than 800 foresight exercises in six world regions, the paper considers eight different dimensions of foresight “style”, including domain coverage, time horizon, target groups, and methods used. It interprets regional differences (and similarities) with reference to dominant political and economic traditions in each region. In so doing, it tests the hypothesis that foresight “style” is influenced by regional context., – The analysis suggests that some foresight “style” dimensions vary between regions more than others. For example, there is marked variation in the domain areas covered by foresight across the world, while some regions appear to prefer particular methods over others. Time horizons also vary. For other dimensions, such as participation levels and the identity of target groups, there is a good deal of similarity. Thus, some dimensions of “style”, at least at the aggregate level, seem to be more influenced by regional context than others., – The paper is unique in being the first publication to survey such a large sample of foresight activity across a wide part of the globe.

Rafael Popper

Papers

How are foresight methods selected

The Handbook of Technology Foresight - Concepts and Practice

Mapping Foresight: Revealing how Europe and other world regions navigate into the future

The Many Faces of Foresight

Comparing foresight “style” in six world regions