我的台灣, 看見心靈的故鄉 =2009林磐聳藝術與設計展

The lack of a precisely-dated, unequivocal climate proxy from northern China, where precipitation variability is traditionally considered as an East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) indicator, impedes our understanding of the behaviour and dynamics of the EASM. Here we present a well-dated, pollen-based, ~20-yr-resolution quantitative precipitation reconstruction (derived using a transfer function) from an alpine lake in North China, which provides for the first time a direct record of EASM evolution since 14.7 ka (ka = thousands of years before present, where the "present" is defined as the year AD 1950). Our record reveals a gradually intensifying monsoon from 14.7-7.0 ka, a maximum monsoon (30% higher precipitation than present) from ~7.8-5.3 ka, and a rapid decline since ~3.3 ka. These insolation-driven EASM trends were punctuated by two millennial-scale weakening events which occurred synchronously to the cold Younger Dryas and at ~9.5-8.5 ka, and by two centennial-scale intervals of enhanced (weakened) monsoon during the Medieval Warm Period (Little Ice Age). Our precipitation reconstruction, consistent with temperature changes but quite different from the prevailing view of EASM evolution, points to strong internal feedback processes driving the EASM, and may aid our understanding of future monsoon behaviour under ongoing anthropogenic climate change.

/pdf/east-asian-summer-monsoon-precipitation-variability-since-1qsvcpqx5u.pdf

East Asian summer monsoon precipitation variability since the last deglaciation

A new approach to dating a continuous sea-level record, using speleothem U–Th ages, shows that past variations in global ice volume occurred within centuries of polar climate change, with rates of sea-level rise reaching at least 1 metre per century.

http://www.highstand.org/erohling/Rohling-papers/2012-Grant-et-al-nature11593.pdf

Rapid coupling between ice volume and polar temperature over the past 150,000 years

/pdf/the-antarctica-component-of-postglacial-rebound-model-ice-6g-b104vz7w4u.pdf

The Antarctica component of postglacial rebound model ICE-6G_C (VM5a) based on GPS positioning, exposure age dating of ice thicknesses, and relative sea level histories

http://www.highstand.org/erohling/Rohling-papers/2011-Stanford-et-al-SL-probability-GPC.pdf

Sea-level probability for the last deglaciation: A statistical analysis of far-field records

The Natural Hazards Partnership (NHP) is a collaboration between 17 UK public bodies 1 to provide authoritative, consistent, and useful, hazard, impact and risk assessment information to responder communities and governments. Over the last decade, disasters have affected over 1.5 billion people across the world and damages are estimated to have exceeded $1.5 trillion. To reduce future impacts from natural disasters, the NHP is looking to establish itself as an international model of best practice for delivery of trusted natural hazard advice and services. Development of this impact-focused information and advice is supported by coordinated access to cutting-edge science and natural hazard impact research. This paper presents the NHP as a successful example of a national collaboration of public bodies with a common goal. The partnership's organization and scientific approach is discussed alongside a review of activities and deliverables developed to help realize the NHP's vision: ‘To be the UK's trusted voice for natural hazards advice’. The NHP has overcome collaborative challenges of multi-organizational, geographically dispersed working by building common ground, respect and trust. This has allowed the development of strong leadership and inter-organizational coordination practices and created an agreed common approach to scientific research. These achievements have helped to ensure that the NHP produces valuable products, services and advice, which could translate to other disciplines and other communities.

The Natural Hazards Partnership: A public-sector collaboration across the UK for natural hazard disaster risk reduction

https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/met.1819

Developing a hazard-impact model to support impact-based forecasts and warnings: The Vehicle OverTurning (VOT) Model

On the 23rd February 2017, a significant low-pressure system named Storm Doris crossed the Republic of Ireland and the UK causing widespread disruption. As an early example of a storm named through the Met Office and Met Eireann ‘Name our Storms’ project, this provided an excellent opportunity to study how information about extreme weather in the UK spread through the media. In traditional media, the forecast of Storm Doris was widely reported upon on the 21st and 22nd February. On the 23rd February, newspaper coverage of the event rapidly switched to reporting the impact of the storm. Around three times the number of words and twice the number of articles were published about the impacts of Storm Doris in comparison to its forecast. Storm Doris rapidly became a broader cultural topic with an imprint on political news because of two by-elections that occurred by coincidence on the 23rd February. In the social media, rapid growth of the number of tweets about Storm Doris closely mirrored the growth of newspaper articles about the impacts of the storm. The network structure of the tweets associated with Storm Doris revealed the importance of both the Met Office official twitter account and newspaper and rail company accounts in disseminating information about the storm. Storm names, in addition to their benefit for forecast communication, also provide researchers with a useful and easily collected target to study the development and evolution of public understanding of extreme weather events.

https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/met.1794

Storm naming and forecast communication: A case study of Storm Doris

&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;The ECMWF training offering covers a wide range of topics in support of operational numerical weather prediction, forecasting, the Copernicus Climate Change Services (C3S) and Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Service (CAMS). ECMWF is committed to providing education and training to its Member and Co-operating States as well as the wider meteorological community. During the global COVID pandemic it was essential that the continuity of service was maintained and training courses and events were delivered. As such we had to rapidly adjust the way our courses and events took place while ensuing a high quality learning experience for participants.&amp;lt;/p&amp;gt;&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;Delivering training courses and events online posed challenges for participants, trainers and presenters. Everyone had to adapt to utilising new technology alongside reduced trainer-participant interactions and networking while making sure learning and event objectives were still met and attendees were engaged. To do this ECMWF investigated a number of tools and methods to enhance participant interaction and engagement. These included: gather.town an online environment where participants created avatars and walked around the virtual ECMWF building interacting with each other, this environment was also used for classroom teaching and training activities; Padlet for collaboration and sharing of documents and presentations; so called &amp;amp;#8216;Social Breaks&amp;amp;#8217; where participants were randomly assigned into rooms for an informal chat akin to in-person coffee breaks; and Q&amp;amp;A and polling features in tools like Zoom, Slido and Vevox to enhance engagement.&amp;lt;/p&amp;gt;&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;In this presentation we will detail and explore the different ways ECMWF have delivered virtual training courses and events, the new tools we have used, the challenges that we have faced and the lessons we have learned for delivering future courses and events.&amp;lt;/p&amp;gt; 

Rebecca Hemingway

Papers

Sea-level probability for the last deglaciation: A statistical analysis of far-field records

The Natural Hazards Partnership: A public-sector collaboration across the UK for natural hazard disaster risk reduction

Developing a hazard-impact model to support impact-based forecasts and warnings: The Vehicle OverTurning (VOT) Model

Storm naming and forecast communication: A case study of Storm Doris

ECMWF&#8217;s experiences in virtual training and events

Rebecca Hemingway

Papers

Sea-level probability for the last deglaciation: A statistical analysis of far-field records

The Natural Hazards Partnership: A public-sector collaboration across the UK for natural hazard disaster risk reduction

Developing a hazard-impact model to support impact-based forecasts and warnings: The Vehicle OverTurning (VOT) Model

Storm naming and forecast communication: A case study of Storm Doris

ECMWF&amp;#8217;s experiences in virtual training and events

ECMWF’s experiences in virtual training and events