As companies strive to develop artefacts intended for services instead of traditional sell-off, new challenges in the product development process arise to promote continuous improvement and increasing market profits. This creates a focus on product life-cycle components as companies then make life-cycle commitments, where they are responsible for the function availability during the extent of the life-cycle, i.e. functional products. One of these life-cycle components is manufacturing; therefore, companies search for new approaches of success during manufacturability evaluation already in engineering design. Efforts have been done to support early engineering design, as this phase sets constraints and opportunities for manufacturing. These efforts have turned into design for manufacturing methods and guidelines. A further step to improve the life-cycle focus during early engineering design is to reuse results and use experience from earlier projects. However, because results and experiences created during project work are often not documented for reuse, only remembered by some people, there is a need for design support. Knowledge engineering (KE) is a methodology for creating knowledge-based systems, e.g. systems that enable reuse of earlier results and make available both explicit and tacit corporate knowledge, enabling the automated generation and evaluation of new engineering design solutions during early product development. There are a variety of KE-approaches, such as knowledge-based engineering, case-based reasoning and programming, which have been used in research to develop design for manufacturing methods and applications. There are, however, opportunities for research where several approaches and their interdependencies, to create a transparent picture of how KE can be used to support engineering design, are investigated. The aim of the research presented in this thesis is to create new methods for design for manufacturing, by using several approaches of KE, and find the beneficial and less beneficial aspects of these methods in comparison to each other and earlier research. This thesis presents methods and applications for design for manufacturing using KE. KE has been employed in several ways, namely rule-based, rule-, programmingand finite element analysis (FEA)-based, and ruleand plan-based, which are tested and compared with each other. Results show that KE can be used to generate information about manufacturing in several ways. The rule-based way is suitable for supporting life-cycle commitments, as engineering design and manufacturing can be integrated with maintenance and performance predictions during early engineering design, though limited to the firing of production rules. The rule-, programmingand FEA-based way can be used to integrate computer-aided design tools and virtual manufacturing for non-linear stress and displacement analysis. This way may also bridge the gap between engineering designers and computational experts, even though this way requires a larger effort to program than the rule-based. The ruleand planbased way can enable design for manufacturing in two fashions – based on earlier manufacturing plans and based on rules. Because earlier manufacturing plans, together with programming algorithms, can handle knowledge that may be more intricate to capture as rules, as opposed to the time demanding routine work that is often automated by means of rules, several opportunities for designing for manufacturing exist.

Methods and Applications

[1] Freshwater (FW) fluxes from river runoff and precipitation minus evaporation for the pan Arctic seas are relatively well documented and prescribed in ocean GCMs. Fluxes from Greenland on the other hand are generally ignored altogether, despite their potential impacts on ocean circulation and marine biology. Here, we present a reconstruction of the spatially distributed FW flux from Greenland for 1958–2010. We find a modest increase into the Arctic Ocean during this period. Fluxes into the Irminger Basin, however, have increased by fifty percent (6.3 ± 0.5 km3 yr−2) in less than twenty years. This greatly exceeds previous estimates. For the ice sheet as a whole the rate of increase since 1992 is 16.9 ± 1.8 km3 yr−2. The cumulative FW anomaly since 1995 is 3200 ± 358 km3, which is about a third of the magnitude of the Great Salinity Anomaly (GSA) of the 1970s. If this trend continues into the future, the anomaly will exceed that of the GSA by about 2025.

Recent Large Increases in Freshwater Fluxes from Greenland Into the North Atlantic

Low-cost UAV applications in dynamic tropical volcanic landforms

The 1980 Eruptions of Mount St. Helens, Washington. P.W. Lipman and D.R. Mullineaux (Editors), 1981. United States Geological Survey Professional Paper, 1250, 844 pp., 470 ill., coloured geological map, 117 Tables, U.S. $35.00

Imaging growing lava domes has remained a great challenge in volcanology due to their inaccessibility and the severe hazard of collapse or explosion. Changes in surface movement, temperature, or lava viscosity are considered crucial data for hazard assessments at active lava domes and thus valuable study targets. Here, we present results from a series of repeated survey flights with both optical and thermal cameras at the Caliente lava dome, part of the Santiaguito complex at Santa Maria volcano, Guatemala, using an Unoccupied Aircraft System (UAS) to create topography data and orthophotos of the lava dome. This enabled us to track pixel-offsets and delineate the 2D displacement field, strain components, extrusion rate, and apparent lava viscosity. We find that the lava dome displays motions on two separate timescales, (i) slow radial expansion and growth of the dome and (ii) a narrow and fast-moving lava extrusion. Both processes also produced distinctive fracture sets detectable with surface motion, and high strain zones associated with thermal anomalies. Our results highlight that motion patterns at lava domes control the structural and thermal architecture, and different timescales should be considered to better characterize surface motions during dome growth to improve the assessment of volcanic hazards.

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UAS-based tracking of the Santiaguito Lava Dome, Guatemala

Lava domes grow by extrusions and intrusions of viscous magma often initiating from a central volcanic vent, and they are frequently defining the source region of hazardous explosive eruptions and pyroclastic density currents. Thus, close monitoring of dome building processes is crucial, but often limited to low data resolution, hazardous access, and poor visibility. Here, we investigated the 2016–2017 eruptive sequence of the dome building Bezymianny volcano, Kamchatka, with spot-mode TerraSAR-X acquisitions, and complement the analysis with webcam imagery and seismic data. Our results reveal clear morphometric changes preceding eruptions that are associated with intrusions and extrusions. Pixel offset measurements show >7 months of precursory plug extrusion, being locally defined and exceeding 30 m of deformation, chiefly without detected seismicity. After a short explosion, three months of lava dome evolution were characterised by extrusions and intrusion. Our data suggest that the growth mechanisms were significantly governed by magma supply rate and shallow upper conduit solidification that deflected magmatic intrusions into the uppermost parts of the dome. The integrated approach contributes significantly to a better understanding of precursory activity and complex growth interactions at dome building volcanoes, and shows that intrusive and extrusive growth is acting in chorus at Bezymianny volcano.

Deformations and Morphology Changes Associated with the 2016–2017 Eruption Sequence at Bezymianny Volcano, Kamchatka

Continued post-collapse volcanic activity can cause the rise of a new edifice. However, details of such edifice rebirth have not been documented yet. Here, we present 7-decade-long photogrammetric data for Bezymianny volcano, Kamchatka, showing its evolution after the 1956 sector collapse. Edifice rebirth started with two lava domes originating at distinct vents ~400 m apart. After 2 decades, activity became more effusive with vents migrating within ~200 m distance. After 5 decades, the activity focused on a single vent to develop a stratocone with a summit crater. We determine a long-term average growth rate of 26,400 m3/day, allowing us to estimate the regain of the pre-collapse size within the next 15 years. Numerical modeling explains the gradual vents focusing to be associated with loading changes, affecting magma pathways at depth. This work thus sheds light on the complex regrowth process following a sector collapse, with implications for regrowing volcanoes elsewhere. Regrowth of the Bezymianny volcano, Kamchatka developed from dispersed domes to a focussed stratocone due to loading changes beneath the edifice over the course of seven decades, according to photogrammetric observations throughout the period.

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The rebirth and evolution of Bezymianny volcano, Kamchatka after the 1956 sector collapse

Strong explosive eruptions of volcanoes throw out mixtures of gases and ash from high-pressure underground reservoirs. Investigating these subsurface reservoirs may help to forecast and characterize an eruption. In this study, we compare seismic tomography results with remote sensing and petrology data to identify deep and subaerial manifestations of pre-eruptive processes at Bezymianny volcano in Kamchatka shortly before its violent explosion on December 20, 2017. Based on camera networks we identify precursory rockfalls, and based on satellite radar data we find pre-eruptive summit inflation. Our seismic network recorded the P and S wave data from over 500 local earthquakes used to invert for a 3D seismic velocity distribution beneath Bezymianny illuminating its eruptive state days before the eruption. The derived tomography model, in conjunction with the presence of the high-temperature-stable SiO2 polymorph Tridymite in juvenile rock samples , allowed us to infer the coexistence of magma and gas reservoirs revealed as anomalies of low (1.5) and high (2.0) Vp/Vs ratios, respectively, located at depths of 2–3 km and only 2 km apart. The reservoirs both control the current eruptive activity: while the magma reservoir is responsible for episodic dome growth and lava flow emplacements, the spatially separated gas reservoir may control short but powerful explosive eruptions of Bezymianny.

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Anatomy of the Bezymianny volcano merely before an explosive eruption on 20.12.2017.

Volcanoes are traditionally considered isolated with an activity that is mostly independent of the surrounding, with few eruptions only (< 2%) associated with a tectonic earthquake trigger. Evidence is now increasing that volcanoes forming clusters of eruptive centers may simultaneously erupt, show unrest, or even shut-down activity. Using infrared satellite data, we detail 20 years of eruptive activity (2000–2020) at Klyuchevskoy, Bezymianny, and Tolbachik, the three active volcanoes of the Klyuchevskoy Volcanic Group (KVG), Kamchatka. We show that the neighboring volcanoes exhibit multiple and reciprocal interactions on different timescales that unravel the magmatic system’s complexity below the KVG. Klyuchevskoy and Bezymianny volcanoes show correlated activity with time-predictable and quasiperiodic behaviors, respectively. This is consistent with magma accumulation and discharge dynamics at both volcanoes, typical of steady-state volcanism. However, Tolbachik volcano can interrupt this steady-state regime and modify the magma output rate of its neighbors for several years. We suggest that below the KVG the transfer of magma at crustal level is modulated by the presence of three distinct but hydraulically connected plumbing systems. Similar complex interactions may occur at other volcanic groups and must be considered to evaluate the hazard of grouped volcanoes.

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René Mania

Papers

UAS-based tracking of the Santiaguito Lava Dome, Guatemala

Deformations and Morphology Changes Associated with the 2016–2017 Eruption Sequence at Bezymianny Volcano, Kamchatka

The rebirth and evolution of Bezymianny volcano, Kamchatka after the 1956 sector collapse

Anatomy of the Bezymianny volcano merely before an explosive eruption on 20.12.2017.

Thermal remote sensing reveals communication between volcanoes of the Klyuchevskoy Volcanic Group.