Abstract A two-dimensional version of the Pennsylvania State University mesoscale model has been applied to Winter Monsoon Experiment data in order to simulate the diurnally occurring convection observed over the South China Sea. The domain includes a representation of part of Borneo as well as the sea so that the model can simulate the initiation of convection. Also included in the model are parameterizations of mesoscale ice phase and moisture processes and longwave and shortwave radiation with a diurnal cycle. This allows use of the model to test the relative importance of various heating mechanisms to the stratiform cloud deck, which typically occupies several hundred kilometers of the domain. Frank and Cohen's cumulus parameterization scheme is employed to represent vital unresolved vertical transports in the convective area. The major conclusions are: Ice phase processes are important in determining the level of maximum large-scale heating and vertical motion because there is a strong anvil componen...

Numerical study of convection observed during the Winter Monsoon Experiment using a mesoscale two-dimensional model [presentation]

From a societal, weather, and climate perspective, precipitation intensity, duration, frequency, and phase are as much of concern as total amounts, as these factors determine the disposition of precipitation once it hits the ground and how much runs off. At the extremes of precipitation incidence are the events that give rise to floods and droughts, whose changes in occurrence and severity have an enormous impact on the environment and society. Hence, advancing understanding and the ability to model and predict the character of precipitation is vital but requires new approaches to examining data and models. Various mechanisms, storms and so forth, exist to bring about precipitation. Because the rate of precipitation, conditional on when it falls, greatly exceeds the rate of replenishment of moisture by surface evaporation, most precipitation comes from moisture already in the atmosphere at the time the storm begins, and transport of moisture by the storm-scale circulation into the storm is vital....

/pdf/the-changing-character-of-precipitation-5gto4ulnge.pdf

The Changing Character of Precipitation

This comprehensive text and reference work on numerical weather prediction, first published in 2002, covers not only methods for numerical modeling, but also the important related areas of data assimilation and predictability. It incorporates all aspects of environmental computer modeling including an historical overview of the subject, equations of motion and their approximations, a modern and clear description of numerical methods, and the determination of initial conditions using weather observations (an important science known as data assimilation). Finally, this book provides a clear discussion of the problems of predictability and chaos in dynamical systems and how they can be applied to atmospheric and oceanic systems. Professors and students in meteorology, atmospheric science, oceanography, hydrology and environmental science will find much to interest them in this book, which can also form the basis of one or more graduate-level courses.

/pdf/atmospheric-modeling-data-assimilation-and-predictability-1qxqadvqdq.pdf

Atmospheric Modeling, Data Assimilation and Predictability

The largest convective clouds are mesoscale convective systems, which account for a large portion of Earth's cloud cover and precipitation, and the patterns of wind and weather associated with mesoscale convective systems are important local phenomena that often must be forecast on short timescales. They often produce floods. Mesoscale convective systems are generally much larger than the individual cumulonimbus and lines of cumulonimbus discussed in Chapter 8 . They develop circulations on the mesoscale, which are larger in scale than the updrafts and downdrafts of individual cumulonimbus clouds. The mesoscale circulations produce large regions of stratiform (nimbostratus) precipitation of the type discussed in Chapter 6 . Often the stratiform precipitation regions trail a squall line consisting of convective cells, and a mesoscale convective vortex tends to form in the stratiform region. The heating profile in the stratiform region is positive at upper levels and negative at lower levels due to evaporation and melting of the precipitation particles. The dynamics of mesoscale circulations involve a joint adjustment to the wind shear and thermodynamic stratification of the large scale environment. Gravity-wave dynamics also contribute to the maintenance of mesoscale convective systems. This chapter reviews both the observed structure of mesoscale systems and their unique dynamics.

/pdf/mesoscale-convective-systems-144jge62r4.pdf

Mesoscale convective systems

An increasing number of satellite-based rainfall products are now available in near–real time over the Internet to help meet the needs of weather forecasters and climate scientists, as well as a wide range of decision makers, including hydrologists, agriculturalists, emergency managers, and industrialists. Many of these satellite products are so newly developed that a comprehensive evaluation has not yet been undertaken. This article provides potential users of short-interval satellite rainfall estimates with information on the accuracy of such estimates. Since late 2002 the authors have been performing daily validation and intercomparisons of several operational satellite rainfall retrieval algorithms over Australia, the United States, and northwestern Europe. Short-range quantitative precipitation forecasts from four numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are also included for comparison. Synthesis of four years of daily rainfall validation results shows that the satellite-derived estimates of precip...

Comparison of near-real-time precipitation estimates from satellite observations and numerical models

Herein preliminary findings are reported from a radar-based climatology of warm season precipitation ‘‘episodes.’’ Episodes are defined as time‐space clusters of heavy precipitation that often result from sequences of organized convection such as squall lines, mesoscale convective systems, and mesoscale convective complexes. Episodes exhibit coherent rainfall patterns, characteristic of propagating events, under a broad range of atmospheric conditions. Such rainfall patterns are most frequent under ‘‘weakly forced’’ conditions in midsummer. The longevity of episodes, up to 60 h, suggests an intrinsic predictability of warm season rainfall that significantly exceeds the lifetime of individual convective systems. Episodes are initiated primarily in response to diurnal and semidiurnal forcings. Diurnal forcing is dominant near the Rocky and Appalachian Mountains, whereas semidiurnal forcing is dominant between these cordilleras. A most common longitude of origin is at or near the east slope of the Continental Divide (1058W). These observations are consistent with a condition of continual thermal forcing, widespread hydrodynamic instability, and the existence of other processes that routinely excite, maintain, and regenerate organized convection. The propagation speed of major episodes is often in excess of rates that are easily attributable either to the phase speeds of large-scale forcing or to advection from low- to midlevel ‘‘steering’’ winds. It is speculated that wavelike mechanisms, in the free troposphere and/or the planetary boundary layer, may contribute to the rates of motion observed. Once understood, the representation of such mechanisms in forecast models offers the opportunity for improved predictions of warm season rainfall.

Inferences of Predictability Associated with Warm Season Precipitation Episodes

Inferences of predictability associated with warm season precipitation episodes

Warm-season quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) are the poorest performance area of forecast systems worldwide. They stubbornly fall further behind while other aspects of weather prediction steadily improve. Unless a major effort is mounted to overcome the impediments to improved prediction, it is certain to remain the Achilles' heel of weather prediction, at a progressively greater cost to society. For these reasons and others, the Office of the Lead Scientist, U.S. Weather Research Program (USWRP), commissioned a workshop to examine future courses of action to improve understanding and prediction of heavy warm-season rainfall and associated flood forecasts. The workshop was held in Boulder, Colorado, in March 2002. It was attended by 75 people and produced numerous “white papers” and panel reports, all of which are readily available to the reader. Herein the major findings of the workshop are summarized, including an overarching strategy to achieve improved predictive skill and recommendations f...

https://opensky.ucar.edu:/islandora/object/articles%3A10206/datastream/PDF/view

Improving quantitative precipitation forecasts in the warm season: A USWRP research and development strategy

The diurnal occurrence of warm-season rainfall over the U.S. mainland is examined, particularly in light of forcings at multiple scales. The analysis is based on a radar dataset of 12-seasons duration covering the U.S. mainland from the Continental Divide eastward. The dataset resolves 2-km features at 15-min intervals, thus providing a detailed view of both large- and regional-scale diurnal patterns, as well as the statistics of events underlying these patterns. The results confirm recent findings with respect to the role of propagating rainfall systems and the high frequency at which these are excited by sensible heating over elevated terrain. Between the Rockies and the Appalachians, 60% of midsummer rainfall occurs in this manner. Most rainfall in the central United States is nocturnal and may be attributed to the following three main forcings: 1) the passage of eastward-propagating rainfall systems with origins near the Continental Divide at 105°W; 2) a nocturnal reversal of the mountain–plains solenoid, which is associated with widespread ascent over the plains; and 3) the transport of energetic air and moisture convergence by the Great Plains low-level jet. Other features of interest include effects of the Appalachians, semidiurnal signals of regional significance, and the impact of breezes along the Gulf of Mexico. A modest effort was put forth to discern signals associated with El Nino and the Southern Oscillation. While tendencies in precipitation patterns are observed, the record is too short to draw conclusions of general significance.

Rainfall Occurrence in the U.S. Warm Season: The Diurnal Cycle*

A narrow cold frontal band of intense precipitation is examined by means of triple Doppler radar and supporting observations. As the band passed through the Central Valley of California, it was accompanied by strong gusty winds, electrical activity, tornadoes and pressure jumps. Part I delineates the stormwide kinematic and thermodynamic structure. A highly two-dimensional pre-frontal updraft of 15–20 m s−1 results primarily from intense planetary boundary layer forcing of a low-level jet by the gravity-current propagation mechanism. Maximum updraft speed occurs at 2.1 km and the maximum radar echo depth is 6.6 km. Diabatic cooling, due to melting hydrometers, is proposed as a likely mechanism for control of gravity current depth and maintenance of density contrast together with synoptic-scale cold air advection. Available convective potential energy is shown to be small and kinetic energy of the environmental vertical wind shear is proposed as a likely source of energy on the updraft scale. Torn...

Richard E. Carbone

Papers

Inferences of Predictability Associated with Warm Season Precipitation Episodes

Inferences of predictability associated with warm season precipitation episodes

Improving quantitative precipitation forecasts in the warm season: A USWRP research and development strategy

Rainfall Occurrence in the U.S. Warm Season: The Diurnal Cycle*

A Severe Frontal Rainband. Part I. Stormwide Hydrodynamic Structure