THE DESIGN AND ANALYSIS OF EXPERIMENTS. By Oscar Kempthorne. New York, John Wiley and Sons, Inc., 1952. 631 pp. $8.50. This book by a teacher of statistics (as well as a consultant for \"experimenters\") is a comprehensive study of the philosophical background for the statistical design of experiment. It is necessary to have some facility with algebraic notation and manipulation to be able to use the volume intelligently. The problems are presented from the theoretical point of view, without such practical examples as would be helpful for those not acquainted with mathematics. The mathematical justification for the techniques is given. As a somewhat advanced treatment of the design and analysis of experiments, this volume will be interesting and helpful for many who approach statistics theoretically as well as practically. With emphasis on the \"why,\" and with description given broadly, the author relates the subject matter to the general theory of statistics and to the general problem of experimental inference. MARGARET J. ROBERTSON

The Design and Analysis of Experiments

We will review some of the major results in random graphs and some of the more challenging open problems. We will cover algorithmic and structural questions. We will touch on newer models, including those related to the WWW.

Random graphs

Preface 1. Decision-Theoretic Foundations 1.1 Game Theory, Rationality, and Intelligence 1.2 Basic Concepts of Decision Theory 1.3 Axioms 1.4 The Expected-Utility Maximization Theorem 1.5 Equivalent Representations 1.6 Bayesian Conditional-Probability Systems 1.7 Limitations of the Bayesian Model 1.8 Domination 1.9 Proofs of the Domination Theorems Exercises 2. Basic Models 2.1 Games in Extensive Form 2.2 Strategic Form and the Normal Representation 2.3 Equivalence of Strategic-Form Games 2.4 Reduced Normal Representations 2.5 Elimination of Dominated Strategies 2.6 Multiagent Representations 2.7 Common Knowledge 2.8 Bayesian Games 2.9 Modeling Games with Incomplete Information Exercises 3. Equilibria of Strategic-Form Games 3.1 Domination and Ratonalizability 3.2 Nash Equilibrium 3.3 Computing Nash Equilibria 3.4 Significance of Nash Equilibria 3.5 The Focal-Point Effect 3.6 The Decision-Analytic Approach to Games 3.7 Evolution. Resistance. and Risk Dominance 3.8 Two-Person Zero-Sum Games 3.9 Bayesian Equilibria 3.10 Purification of Randomized Strategies in Equilibria 3.11 Auctions 3.12 Proof of Existence of Equilibrium 3.13 Infinite Strategy Sets Exercises 4. Sequential Equilibria of Extensive-Form Games 4.1 Mixed Strategies and Behavioral Strategies 4.2 Equilibria in Behavioral Strategies 4.3 Sequential Rationality at Information States with Positive Probability 4.4 Consistent Beliefs and Sequential Rationality at All Information States 4.5 Computing Sequential Equilibria 4.6 Subgame-Perfect Equilibria 4.7 Games with Perfect Information 4.8 Adding Chance Events with Small Probability 4.9 Forward Induction 4.10 Voting and Binary Agendas 4.11 Technical Proofs Exercises 5. Refinements of Equilibrium in Strategic Form 5.1 Introduction 5.2 Perfect Equilibria 5.3 Existence of Perfect and Sequential Equilibria 5.4 Proper Equilibria 5.5 Persistent Equilibria 5.6 Stable Sets 01 Equilibria 5.7 Generic Properties 5.8 Conclusions Exercises 6. Games with Communication 6.1 Contracts and Correlated Strategies 6.2 Correlated Equilibria 6.3 Bayesian Games with Communication 6.4 Bayesian Collective-Choice Problems and Bayesian Bargaining Problems 6.5 Trading Problems with Linear Utility 6.6 General Participation Constraints for Bayesian Games with Contracts 6.7 Sender-Receiver Games 6.8 Acceptable and Predominant Correlated Equilibria 6.9 Communication in Extensive-Form and Multistage Games Exercises Bibliographic Note 7. Repeated Games 7.1 The Repeated Prisoners Dilemma 7.2 A General Model of Repeated Garnet 7.3 Stationary Equilibria of Repeated Games with Complete State Information and Discounting 7.4 Repeated Games with Standard Information: Examples 7.5 General Feasibility Theorems for Standard Repeated Games 7.6 Finitely Repeated Games and the Role of Initial Doubt 7.7 Imperfect Observability of Moves 7.8 Repeated Wines in Large Decentralized Groups 7.9 Repeated Games with Incomplete Information 7.10 Continuous Time 7.11 Evolutionary Simulation of Repeated Games Exercises 8. Bargaining and Cooperation in Two-Person Games 8.1 Noncooperative Foundations of Cooperative Game Theory 8.2 Two-Person Bargaining Problems and the Nash Bargaining Solution 8.3 Interpersonal Comparisons of Weighted Utility 8.4 Transferable Utility 8.5 Rational Threats 8.6 Other Bargaining Solutions 8.7 An Alternating-Offer Bargaining Game 8.8 An Alternating-Offer Game with Incomplete Information 8.9 A Discrete Alternating-Offer Game 8.10 Renegotiation Exercises 9. Coalitions in Cooperative Games 9.1 Introduction to Coalitional Analysis 9.2 Characteristic Functions with Transferable Utility 9.3 The Core 9.4 The Shapkey Value 9.5 Values with Cooperation Structures 9.6 Other Solution Concepts 9.7 Colational Games with Nontransferable Utility 9.8 Cores without Transferable Utility 9.9 Values without Transferable Utility Exercises Bibliographic Note 10. Cooperation under Uncertainty 10.1 Introduction 10.2 Concepts of Efficiency 10.3 An Example 10.4 Ex Post Inefficiency and Subsequent Oilers 10.5 Computing Incentive-Efficient Mechanisms 10.6 Inscrutability and Durability 10.7 Mechanism Selection by an Informed Principal 10.8 Neutral Bargaining Solutions 10.9 Dynamic Matching Processes with Incomplete Information Exercises Bibliography Index

博弈论 : 矛盾冲突分析 = Game theory : analysis of conflict

Wireless microsensor networks have been identified as one of the most important technologies for the 21st century. This paper traces the history of research in sensor networks over the past three decades, including two important programs of the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) spanning this period: the Distributed Sensor Networks (DSN) and the Sensor Information Technology (SensIT) programs. Technology trends that impact the development of sensor networks are reviewed, and new applications such as infrastructure security, habitat monitoring, and traffic control are presented. Technical challenges in sensor network development include network discovery, control and routing, collaborative signal and information processing, tasking and querying, and security. The paper concludes by presenting some recent research results in sensor network algorithms, including localized algorithms and directed diffusion, distributed tracking in wireless ad hoc networks, and distributed classification using local agents.

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Sensor networks: evolution, opportunities, and challenges

Computing devices and applications are now used beyond the desktop, in diverse environments, and this trend toward ubiquitous computing is accelerating. One challenge that remains in this emerging research field is the ability to enhance the behavior of any application by informing it of the context of its use. By context, we refer to any information that characterizes a situation related to the interaction between humans, applications, and the surrounding environment. Context-aware applications promise richer and easier interaction, but the current state of research in this field is still far removed from that vision. This is due to 3 main problems: (a) the notion of context is still ill defined, (b) there is a lack of conceptual models and methods to help drive the design of context-aware applications, and (c) no tools are available to jump-start the development of context-aware applications. In this anchor article, we address these 3 problems in turn. We first define context, identify categories of contextual information, and characterize context-aware application behavior. Though the full impact of context-aware computing requires understanding very subtle and high-level notions of context, we are focusing our efforts on the pieces of context that can be inferred automatically from sensors in a physical environment. We then present a conceptual framework that separates the acquisition and representation of context from the delivery and reaction to context by a context-aware application. We have built a toolkit, the Context Toolkit, that instantiates this conceptual framework and supports the rapid development of a rich space of context-aware applications. We illustrate the usefulness of the conceptual framework by describing a number of context-aware applications that have been prototyped using the Context Toolkit. We also demonstrate how such a framework can support the investigation of important research challenges in the area of context-aware computing.

/pdf/a-conceptual-framework-and-a-toolkit-for-supporting-the-3ct19ji2mn.pdf

A conceptual framework and a toolkit for supporting the rapid prototyping of context-aware applications

In this technical note we present a hybrid statistical approach for modeling a vehicle's behavior as it traverses a compact set in Euclidean space. We use Symbolic Transfer Functions (STF), developed by the authors for modeling stochastic input/output systems whose inputs and outputs are both purely symbolic. We apply STF to our problem by assuming that the input symbols represent regions of space through which a track is passing while the output represents specific linear functions that more precisely model the behavior of the track. A target's behavior is modeled at two levels of precision: The symbolic model provides a probability distribution on the next region of space and behavior (linear function) that a vehicle will execute, while the continuous model predicts the position of the vehicle using classical statistical methods. The following results are presented: (i) An algorithm that parsimoniously partitions the space of the vehicle and models the behavior in the partitions with linear functions. (ii) A demonstration of our approach using real-world ship track data.

A Hybrid Statistical Technique for Modeling Recurrent Tracks in a Compact Set

The deployment of synchrophasor devices such as Phasor Measurement Units (PMUs) in an electric power grid enhances real-time monitoring, analysis and control of grid operations. PMU information is sensitive, and any missing or incorrect PMU data could lead to grid failure and/or damage. Therefore, it is important to use encrypted communication channels to avoid any cyber attack. However, encrypted communication channels are vulnerable to side-channel attacks. In this study, side-channel attacks using packet sizes and/or inter-packet timing delays differentiate the stream of packets from any given PMU within an encrypted tunnel. This is investigated under different experimental settings. Also, virtual private network vulnerabilities due to side-channel analysis are discussed.

Side-Channels in Electric Power Synchrophasor Network Data Traffic

The severe power, time and processing constraints on ad hoc wireless sensor networks for area surveillance require in-situ adaptations to conserve resources and optimize performance. In particular, it may be necessary to make dynamic tradeoffs between centralized processing algorithms, like beamforming, and knowledge based distributed processing algorithms like dynamic space-time clustering (DSTC) that rely on local processing of raw sensor data. Beamforming methods can achieve high levels of accuracy in estimating direction of arrival with a sound wave even when the source is in the far field. Hence accurate localization can be achieved with a relatively sparse sensor network. However, beamforming has severe limitations when the number of nodes increases. It requires orders of magnitude higher energy for transporting the entire time series over the network. DSTC methods, on the other hand, work well when the number of nodes is large because clusters can be formed within a smaller space-time window. This work examines the operational domains of the two centralized and distributed algorithms by analyzing sources of error, dependence on sensor density, sensor geometries, energy usage, control logic for data processing and the effects of network topology on the two algorithms. Based on this analysis, we develop hybrid algorithms that take advantage of the operational characteristics of each one in designing a high performance sensor network.

Sensor network based localization and target tracking through hybridization in the operational domains of beamforming and dynamic space-time clustering

The deployment of Phasor Measurement Units (PMUs) in an electric power grid will enhance real-time monitoring and analysis of grid operations. The PMU collects bus voltage phasors, branch current phasors, and bus frequency measurements and uses a communication network to transmit the measurements to the respective substation(s)/control center(s). PMU information is sensitive, since missing or incorrect PMU data could lead to grid failure and/or damage. It is important to use encrypted communicate channels to avoid cyber attacks. In this study, a side-channel attack using inter-packet delays to isolate the stream of packets of one PMU from an encrypted tunnel is shown. Also, encryption in power system VPNs and vulnerabilities due to side channel analysis is discussed.

Side channel analysis of multiple PMU data in electric power systems

The expansion of electric vehicles made the expansion of charging infrastructure rudimentary to keep up with this developing technology that helps people in a myriad of ways. The main drawback in electric vehicle charging, however, is the time consumed to charge a vehicle. The fast charging of electric vehicles solves this problem thus making it a lucrative technology for consumers. However, the fast charging technology is not without its limitations. In this paper we have identified the technology gaps in EV fast charging stations mostly focused on the extremely fast charging topology. It will help pave a path for researchers to direct their effort in a consolidated manner to contribute to the fast charging infrastructure. A thorough review of all aspects and limitations of existing extremely fast charging (XFC) stations have been identified and supporting data are provided. The importance of DC power network based on free fuel energy sources and silicon carbide-based power electronics are proposed to provide ultra-low cost and ultra-high speed XFC stations.

Richard R. Brooks

Papers

A Hybrid Statistical Technique for Modeling Recurrent Tracks in a Compact Set

Side-Channels in Electric Power Synchrophasor Network Data Traffic

Sensor network based localization and target tracking through hybridization in the operational domains of beamforming and dynamic space-time clustering

Side channel analysis of multiple PMU data in electric power systems

A Review of Extremely Fast Charging Stations for Electric Vehicles