THE DESIGN AND ANALYSIS OF EXPERIMENTS. By Oscar Kempthorne. New York, John Wiley and Sons, Inc., 1952. 631 pp. $8.50. This book by a teacher of statistics (as well as a consultant for \"experimenters\") is a comprehensive study of the philosophical background for the statistical design of experiment. It is necessary to have some facility with algebraic notation and manipulation to be able to use the volume intelligently. The problems are presented from the theoretical point of view, without such practical examples as would be helpful for those not acquainted with mathematics. The mathematical justification for the techniques is given. As a somewhat advanced treatment of the design and analysis of experiments, this volume will be interesting and helpful for many who approach statistics theoretically as well as practically. With emphasis on the \"why,\" and with description given broadly, the author relates the subject matter to the general theory of statistics and to the general problem of experimental inference. MARGARET J. ROBERTSON

The Design and Analysis of Experiments

We will review some of the major results in random graphs and some of the more challenging open problems. We will cover algorithmic and structural questions. We will touch on newer models, including those related to the WWW.

Random graphs

Preface 1. Decision-Theoretic Foundations 1.1 Game Theory, Rationality, and Intelligence 1.2 Basic Concepts of Decision Theory 1.3 Axioms 1.4 The Expected-Utility Maximization Theorem 1.5 Equivalent Representations 1.6 Bayesian Conditional-Probability Systems 1.7 Limitations of the Bayesian Model 1.8 Domination 1.9 Proofs of the Domination Theorems Exercises 2. Basic Models 2.1 Games in Extensive Form 2.2 Strategic Form and the Normal Representation 2.3 Equivalence of Strategic-Form Games 2.4 Reduced Normal Representations 2.5 Elimination of Dominated Strategies 2.6 Multiagent Representations 2.7 Common Knowledge 2.8 Bayesian Games 2.9 Modeling Games with Incomplete Information Exercises 3. Equilibria of Strategic-Form Games 3.1 Domination and Ratonalizability 3.2 Nash Equilibrium 3.3 Computing Nash Equilibria 3.4 Significance of Nash Equilibria 3.5 The Focal-Point Effect 3.6 The Decision-Analytic Approach to Games 3.7 Evolution. Resistance. and Risk Dominance 3.8 Two-Person Zero-Sum Games 3.9 Bayesian Equilibria 3.10 Purification of Randomized Strategies in Equilibria 3.11 Auctions 3.12 Proof of Existence of Equilibrium 3.13 Infinite Strategy Sets Exercises 4. Sequential Equilibria of Extensive-Form Games 4.1 Mixed Strategies and Behavioral Strategies 4.2 Equilibria in Behavioral Strategies 4.3 Sequential Rationality at Information States with Positive Probability 4.4 Consistent Beliefs and Sequential Rationality at All Information States 4.5 Computing Sequential Equilibria 4.6 Subgame-Perfect Equilibria 4.7 Games with Perfect Information 4.8 Adding Chance Events with Small Probability 4.9 Forward Induction 4.10 Voting and Binary Agendas 4.11 Technical Proofs Exercises 5. Refinements of Equilibrium in Strategic Form 5.1 Introduction 5.2 Perfect Equilibria 5.3 Existence of Perfect and Sequential Equilibria 5.4 Proper Equilibria 5.5 Persistent Equilibria 5.6 Stable Sets 01 Equilibria 5.7 Generic Properties 5.8 Conclusions Exercises 6. Games with Communication 6.1 Contracts and Correlated Strategies 6.2 Correlated Equilibria 6.3 Bayesian Games with Communication 6.4 Bayesian Collective-Choice Problems and Bayesian Bargaining Problems 6.5 Trading Problems with Linear Utility 6.6 General Participation Constraints for Bayesian Games with Contracts 6.7 Sender-Receiver Games 6.8 Acceptable and Predominant Correlated Equilibria 6.9 Communication in Extensive-Form and Multistage Games Exercises Bibliographic Note 7. Repeated Games 7.1 The Repeated Prisoners Dilemma 7.2 A General Model of Repeated Garnet 7.3 Stationary Equilibria of Repeated Games with Complete State Information and Discounting 7.4 Repeated Games with Standard Information: Examples 7.5 General Feasibility Theorems for Standard Repeated Games 7.6 Finitely Repeated Games and the Role of Initial Doubt 7.7 Imperfect Observability of Moves 7.8 Repeated Wines in Large Decentralized Groups 7.9 Repeated Games with Incomplete Information 7.10 Continuous Time 7.11 Evolutionary Simulation of Repeated Games Exercises 8. Bargaining and Cooperation in Two-Person Games 8.1 Noncooperative Foundations of Cooperative Game Theory 8.2 Two-Person Bargaining Problems and the Nash Bargaining Solution 8.3 Interpersonal Comparisons of Weighted Utility 8.4 Transferable Utility 8.5 Rational Threats 8.6 Other Bargaining Solutions 8.7 An Alternating-Offer Bargaining Game 8.8 An Alternating-Offer Game with Incomplete Information 8.9 A Discrete Alternating-Offer Game 8.10 Renegotiation Exercises 9. Coalitions in Cooperative Games 9.1 Introduction to Coalitional Analysis 9.2 Characteristic Functions with Transferable Utility 9.3 The Core 9.4 The Shapkey Value 9.5 Values with Cooperation Structures 9.6 Other Solution Concepts 9.7 Colational Games with Nontransferable Utility 9.8 Cores without Transferable Utility 9.9 Values without Transferable Utility Exercises Bibliographic Note 10. Cooperation under Uncertainty 10.1 Introduction 10.2 Concepts of Efficiency 10.3 An Example 10.4 Ex Post Inefficiency and Subsequent Oilers 10.5 Computing Incentive-Efficient Mechanisms 10.6 Inscrutability and Durability 10.7 Mechanism Selection by an Informed Principal 10.8 Neutral Bargaining Solutions 10.9 Dynamic Matching Processes with Incomplete Information Exercises Bibliography Index

博弈论 : 矛盾冲突分析 = Game theory : analysis of conflict

Wireless microsensor networks have been identified as one of the most important technologies for the 21st century. This paper traces the history of research in sensor networks over the past three decades, including two important programs of the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) spanning this period: the Distributed Sensor Networks (DSN) and the Sensor Information Technology (SensIT) programs. Technology trends that impact the development of sensor networks are reviewed, and new applications such as infrastructure security, habitat monitoring, and traffic control are presented. Technical challenges in sensor network development include network discovery, control and routing, collaborative signal and information processing, tasking and querying, and security. The paper concludes by presenting some recent research results in sensor network algorithms, including localized algorithms and directed diffusion, distributed tracking in wireless ad hoc networks, and distributed classification using local agents.

/pdf/sensor-networks-evolution-opportunities-and-challenges-5donoenh95.pdf

Sensor networks: evolution, opportunities, and challenges

Computing devices and applications are now used beyond the desktop, in diverse environments, and this trend toward ubiquitous computing is accelerating. One challenge that remains in this emerging research field is the ability to enhance the behavior of any application by informing it of the context of its use. By context, we refer to any information that characterizes a situation related to the interaction between humans, applications, and the surrounding environment. Context-aware applications promise richer and easier interaction, but the current state of research in this field is still far removed from that vision. This is due to 3 main problems: (a) the notion of context is still ill defined, (b) there is a lack of conceptual models and methods to help drive the design of context-aware applications, and (c) no tools are available to jump-start the development of context-aware applications. In this anchor article, we address these 3 problems in turn. We first define context, identify categories of contextual information, and characterize context-aware application behavior. Though the full impact of context-aware computing requires understanding very subtle and high-level notions of context, we are focusing our efforts on the pieces of context that can be inferred automatically from sensors in a physical environment. We then present a conceptual framework that separates the acquisition and representation of context from the delivery and reaction to context by a context-aware application. We have built a toolkit, the Context Toolkit, that instantiates this conceptual framework and supports the rapid development of a rich space of context-aware applications. We illustrate the usefulness of the conceptual framework by describing a number of context-aware applications that have been prototyped using the Context Toolkit. We also demonstrate how such a framework can support the investigation of important research challenges in the area of context-aware computing.

/pdf/a-conceptual-framework-and-a-toolkit-for-supporting-the-3ct19ji2mn.pdf

A conceptual framework and a toolkit for supporting the rapid prototyping of context-aware applications

This paper presents distributed adaptation techniques for use in wireless sensor networks. As an example application we consider data routing by a sensor network in an urban terrain. The adaptation methods are based on ideas from physics, biology, and chemistry. All approaches are emergent behaviors in that they: (i) perform global adaptation using only locally available information, (ii) have strong stochastic components, and (iii) use both positive and negative feedback to steer themselves. We analyze the approaches’ ability to adapt, robustness to internal errors, and power consumption. Comparisons to standard wireless communications techniques are given.

Adaptive routing using emergent protocols in wireless ad hoc sensor networks

Malicious network activity is rapidly increasing. To understand and engineer countermeasures to network attacks, we have developed cellular automata models of network flow dynamics and associated attacks. We describe the theoretical development of our model and compare it to existing models of network flow based on statistical physics. Using our model, we have found empirical evidence that a link exists between the behavior of a network and its entropy. This paper discusses potential extensions of this work to entropy-based intrusion detection systems (IDS).

An interacting automata model for network protection

Recently developed algorithms in automation theory are often difficult to compare correctly since systems must interact with a changing environment. All algorithms are therefore dependent on sensor inputs which are notoriously subject to noise and errors. Proper comparison must be platform independent, but must also take sensor reliability problems into account. We have developed, and are using, a software simulator for comparative evaluation of robotics algorithms. The simulator uses an abstract sensor model which allows evaluation of the algorithms with various sensor reliability parameter values. By applying equivalent algorithms to a large number of randomly generated scenarios it is possible to make valid quantitative comparisons of average performance. This information is complementary to asymptotic time complexity measure which is the most common tool for algorithm comparison. Information is gathered which allows comparison according to criteria chosen by the user, such as distance traveled, number of sensor scans taken, or even collisions with obstacles in the environment. A preliminary discussion of a system capable of quantitative comparison of several algorithms for robot navigation in unknown terrains is presented. This system is in the final stages of acceptance testing, and promises to provide a testbed for future robot navigation research.

Robot algorithm evaluation by simulating sensor faults

Computers and Internet have evolved into necessary tools for our professional, personal and social lives. As a result of this growing dependence, there is a concern that these systems remain protected and available. This concern increases exponentially when considering systems such as smart power grids. Therefore, research should be conducted to develop effective ways of detecting system anomalies. To have realistic results, the studies should be tested on real systems. However, it is not possible to test these experiments on the live network. With the recent collaboration of Universities and research labs, a new experiment test bed has been established.As a result, experiments can now be implemented on real networks. In our study, we design an experiment to analyze Distributed Denial of Service Attacks (DDoS Attack) on a real network with real Internet traffic. The approach that we use in our study can easily be generalized to apply to smart power grids.

Security experimentation using operational systems

Proliferation of distributed computing platforms, in both small and large scales, and mobile applications makes it important to protect remote hosts (servers) from mobile applications and mobile applications from remote hosts. This paper proposes and evaluates a solution to the latter problem for applications based on linear computations that involve scalar as well as array arithmetic. We demonstrate that, for certain classes of applications, it is possible to use an optimizing compiler to automatically transform code structure and data layout so that an application can safely be executed on an untrusted remote host without being reverse engineered.

https://mcs.anl.gov/~snarayan/publications/securecomputation.pdf

Richard R. Brooks

Papers

Adaptive routing using emergent protocols in wireless ad hoc sensor networks

An interacting automata model for network protection

Robot algorithm evaluation by simulating sensor faults

Security experimentation using operational systems

Secure execution of computations in untrusted hosts