Impatti, adattamento e vulnerabilita Le cause e le responsabilita dei cambiamenti climatici sono state trattate sul numero di ottobre della rivista Cda. Approfondiamo l’argomento presentando il documento: “Cambiamenti climatici 2007: impatti, adattamento e vulnerabilita” votato ad aprile 2007 dal secondo gruppo di lavoro del Comitato Intergovernativo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). Si tratta del secondo di tre documenti che compongono il quarto rapporto sui cambiamenti climatici.

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Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability.

Climate Change 1995 is a scientific assessment that was generated by more than 1 000 contributors from over 50 nations. It was jointly co-ordinated through two international agencies; the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme. The assessment was completed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) with a primary aim of reviewing the current state of knowledge concerning the impacts of climate change on physical and ecological systems, human health, and socioeconomic factors. The second aim was to review the available information on the technical and economic feasibility of the potential mitigation and adaptation strategies.

Climate Change 1995

Poor people are disproportionally affected by natural hazards and disasters. This paper provides a review of the multiple factors that explain why this is the case. It explores the role of exposure (often, but not always, poor people are more likely to be affected by hazards), vulnerability (when they are affected, poor people tend to lose a larger fraction of their wealth), and socio-economic resilience (poor people have a lower ability to cope with and recover from disaster impacts). Finally, the paper highlights the vicious circle between poverty and disaster losses: poverty is a major driver of people’s vulnerability to natural disasters, which in turn increase poverty in a measurable and significant way. The main policy implication is that poverty reduction can be considered as disaster risk management, and disaster risk management can be considered as poverty reduction.

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From Poverty to Disaster and Back: a Review of the Literature

牛津经济学词典 = Oxford Dictionary of Economics

Buku ini menjelaskan secara detail tentang ancaman bencana yang ada, berupa ancaman bencana geofisik, ancaman bencana hidro-meterologis, ancaman bencana biologis/ekologis, dan ancaman bencana astronomis

https://www.journal.ugm.ac.id/teknosains/article/download/6006/4791

The Routledge Handbook of Hazards and Disaster Risk Reduction

With the shift from a hazard-centered disaster paradigm to one that places emphasis on vulnerability and resilience, disasters triggered by natural hazards have begun to be perceived as unnatural occurrences. To date, the theoretical conceptualization and empirical measures of vulnerability and resilience remain subjects of contentions. This survey of the empirical economic literature aims to describe the progress made in the conceptualization and measurement of the economic dimensions of vulnerability and resilience in the context of natural hazards, and to provide useful insights for policy-making. Economic vulnerability and economic resilience, interacting with the hazard itself, and the exposure of populations and physical assets, are considered to be critical determinants of the resulting impacts of disasters. The empirical evidence provides systematic support for the hypothesis that apart from the characteristics of the hazards, the potential for people and economies to avoid adverse impacts and their capacity to withstand and rebound from a disaster are influenced by a confluence of socio-economic factors.

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Economic vulnerability and resilience to natural hazards: A survey of concepts and measurements

What shapes peopleâs disaster risk exposure? Using a sub-national (provincial) panel econometric and deductive approach we answer this question by focussing on tropical cyclones, and using the Philippines as a case study for our measurement approach. We construct a new provincial level panel dataset, and use panel estimation methods to assess the influence of socioeconomic (vulnerability), geographic, demographic, topographic (exposure), and meteorological (hazard) characteristics on the resulting fatalities and affected persons from recent tropical cyclones. We find strong evidence that socioeconomic development reduces peopleâs vulnerability and loss of human lives. Further, good local governance is associated with fewer fatalities. Rapid and unplanned urbanization generates vulnerabilities and increases harm. Exposure, including topography, and hazard strength are likewise important determinants. However, disaster impacts on people appear to be influenced much more by vulnerability and exposure, than by the hazard itself. We quantify this difference in order to contribute to policy planning at national and sub-national scales.

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The measurement of disaster risk: An example from tropical cyclones in the Philippines

About four decades ago, the discourse on disasters was largely about natural hazards and their characteristics. The failure of this approach to substantially explain disaster impacts led to a change in paradigm. This new paradigm places its emphasis on the influence of vulnerability and resilience on the resulting impacts of disasterâ be they direct or indirect. Disasters triggered by natural hazards have since been perceived as un-natural occurrences brought about by a confluence of societal factors. Economic vulnerability and economic resilience, interacting with the hazard itself and the exposure of populations and economic systems, are considered critical determinants of the resulting disaster impacts. The theoretical conceptualization and empirical measures of vulnerability and resilience, however, remain subjects of contentions. An apparently dominant view is that while vulnerability and resilience have similar underlying factors, they refer to different things. For instance, economic vulnerability and economic resilience are both shaped by the level of development, quality of development governance, and characteristics of development (widespread inequality, rapid and unplanned urbanization, etc.), yet vulnerability is considered a pre-disaster concern, while resilience, a post-disaster issue. Here, vulnerability is taken as that component of disaster risk that explains the varying impacts on elements (people, assets, systems) that have the same level of exposure to a given hazard. Resilience is what enables the exposed elements to withstand, cope and recover from disaster impacts. Thus, in terms of disaster risk reduction priorities, vulnerability is typically linked to prevention, preparedness, and mitigation; while resilience, to rehabilitation, reconstruction, and recovery. The intensified application of economic theory resulted in important advances in concretizing the concepts of economic vulnerability and resilience, as well as in measuring them. Overall, the ultimate aim for these is for a sound and widely-accepted set of concepts and measures that can be easily adjusted for practical application in different contexts (e.g. developed and developing countries), levels of assessment and governance (e.g. macro and micro; community, city, province, country), hazard types (e.g. meteorological and geologic), and elements at risk.

A survey of the theory and measurement of economic vulnerability and resilience to natural hazards

Economic Vulnerability and Resilience to Natural Hazards

Do floods affect the probability for urban households to suffer from diseases? We study Cagayan de Oro, a highly-urbanized city in the Philippines that exhibits many of the common characteristics of urban areas in middle-income countries. We find that bronchitis, respiratory tract infection, influenza, chicken pox, measles, typhoid fever, diarrhea, leptospirosis, dengue, hypertension, and heart diseases are each associated with either one or a combination of the flood variables: exposure, height, or duration. We quantify their incremental incidence due to flood exposure, and provide indicative estimates on their cost implications both to the government and to the disease-affected households. In general, results reveal that flood-induced diseases cause large cost to the government as well as heavy financial burden on affected families, particularly among the economically disadvantaged. Cost estimation is undertaken for the floodplains of Cagayan de Oro City, and expanded to all urban areas in the Philippines to serve as inputs for discussions on the expansion or redesign of policies aimed at ensuring people’s safety from disasters, diseases, and impoverishment within a typical urban setting.

Rio Yonson

Papers

Economic vulnerability and resilience to natural hazards: A survey of concepts and measurements

The measurement of disaster risk: An example from tropical cyclones in the Philippines

A survey of the theory and measurement of economic vulnerability and resilience to natural hazards

Economic Vulnerability and Resilience to Natural Hazards

Floods and Pestilence: Diseases in Philippine Urban Areas